The slowdown in production has led to the imbalance of supply and demand
At the end of September wholesale prices for broiler meat in Russia reached a maximum value in the history of observations. As reported by the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR), in August there was a slight decline in prices and stabilization after high values, which were formed on the market in mid-summer. However, during September the carcass of broiler chicken in a large wholesale level rose by 8.5% to a record 123-128 RUB/kg. the Value of breast fillets rose to average 230-240 RUB/kg, the wing — 70-75 RUB/kg, ham — 115-120 rubles/kg.
«In early October, the price growth continues», — said the «Agroinvestor» expert of IKAR Anna Kudryakova. According to her, this is due to the continuing shortage in the market, including carcass and breast fillets. «The current level of supply and low volume of residues allows manufacturers to keep prices at this level,» said Kudryakova. In September, the number of poultry farms in September produced a carcass with a small weight, up to 1.2 kg. In the middle of last month such proposals had enough points Kudryakova. «Perhaps this is due to a change in the composition of the feed, increasing grain prices, as well as hot summer, during which the bird is worse than gaining weight,» she suggested.
According to Rosstat, in August, the poultry production in Russian agricultural enterprises decreased by 2% compared to the same value last year to 489 thousand tons. «last year in this period continued to increase. In the same year recorded a decline in March and in July and August,» — said Kudryakova. At the same time in the first eight months of the current year remains positive dynamics at the level of 1.8%.
The reduction in the rate of increased production and rising prices — the result of the efforts to stabilise the market by the manufacturers, in turn, noted the President of Agrifood Strategies albert Davleev. «After the failure of the prices of 13% in 2017, at the end of last and beginning of this year was a lot of talk about the glut of the Russian market of chicken meat and about the need to more effectively sell the goose, that is not to flood the market, reducing prices. As a result, some major poultry companies have taken the decision to reduce landings of birds», — told the «Agroinvestor» Davleev. According to him, now is the time this cycle of reducing the production ends as it begins with a reduction in parental flocks and on average takes up to six months.
«Thus, currently we can say that at the level of the increased consumer activity, which in the first half amounted to 3-4%, the reduction in supply led to the formation of a certain imbalance between consumer demand and supply,» stated Davleev. In addition, he continued, the rise in prices affects the situation in the pig breeding sector. «The fluctuations in the prices of chicken traditionally repeat the price dynamics for the pork, and the lag between them is on average 4-6 weeks,» — said the expert, Recalling that in August meat processors complained of a sharp increase in prices for pig meat. Another important factor is the cost of feed due to the rising cost of grain and fodder. «Today's proposal, for example, for wheat IV class in the Central Federal district by at least 30-40% higher than the same period of 2017 and prices continue to rise,» explains the President of Agrifood Strategies.
In addition, to a certain extent on the situation in the sector impact emerged in this year's financial difficulties at the «White bird» is the fourth largest producer in 2017. «Now a manufacturer changes its position in the market, which is reflected in the dynamics of production in Belgorod, Rostov and Kursk regions,» said Kudryakova. So, in January-August poultry production in the agricultural organizations of the Belgorod region decreased by 7%, in Kursk region — on 13%. However, according to Davleev, the amount of «White birds» are not so high as to significantly affect the market as a whole. According to the Russian poultry Union, in the past year, the company «White bird» made 301,8 thousand tons of meat in live weight or 5% of the total volume produced by Russian agricultural enterprises.
According to Rosstat, last year, Russian farmers increased production by almost poultry by 7% to 4.9 million t. According to the forecast of IKAR, at the end of 2018, the issue will be approximately at the level of 2017. The Russian poultry Union expects growth of 1.5-2% to more than 5 million tonnes.