MOSCOW, October 9 — RIA Novosti, Natalia Dembinski. The Ministry of agriculture in this and next year sell a half million tons of grain — wheat, rye and feed barley from the state intervention Fund. The grain purchased in the previous years, and now will be sent to the domestic market or for export. The proceeds will be transferred to the Federal budget. Why you need a grain interventions why the market is waiting for price hike and how it will affect ordinary consumers — in the material RIA Novosti.
A bad harvest
The mechanism of procurement and commodity (sales) of intervention grain operates in Russia since 2001. Public intervention is used to stabilize grain prices and support farmers.
Last year harvested a record grain crop in the history of the country — 135,4 million tons, including 85.9 million tons of wheat. Figure 2016 — of 120.7 million tons. This year the situation is different: due to adverse weather conditions, analysts predict that the grain harvest at 110 million tons, the Ministry of agriculture talking about 100 million tons. According to the Ministry, the loss can reach 30 million tons.
The reserve Fund exists to regulate prices, when they grow too much.
The sale of grain from reserves analysts attribute to a combination of two factors. First, the state monthly spends huge money in order to compensate for the elevators the cost of storage at a predetermined rate. The sale will allow to balance the cost of maintenance of the Fund.
Secondly, this year the domestic prices may move up due to poor harvest and low rate of the ruble.
To insure against price hike
According to Dmitry Rylko, the General Director of Institute of agrarian marketing, in the course of the season and third class wheat in Central Russia to rise to 15 thousand rubles per ton.
"Due to the fact that now there are many proinflationary factors (this and the forthcoming VAT increase, and an increase in the cost of fuel), there is a reason to put a little pressure on prices. Derivatives of corn — bread and flour — are very responsive to inflationary expectations of the population", — said Timur Nigmatullin, a financial analyst "Discovery broker". So, if inflation gets out of control, it is a good way to slow down.
Thus, the government wants to insure in advance against accelerating inflation and high prices in the grain market.
Now, in October, to engage in price regulation is not necessary, said Vladimir Petrichenko, but in the case of a sharp price hike the Ministry of agriculture will be able to quickly go to market with commodity interventions. Therefore, the current decision about the impending sale is the course for the future.
Analysts, however, point out that the scale of the market projected sales quite a bit more than per cent, and therefore the impact on prices will be minimal. "The main goal is more of updating inventory, because grain cannot be stored forever," — said Nigmatullin.
What will happen to the price of bread
Whether the public to expect rise in price of bread during the jump in grain prices? Experts explain: the price of bread is only weakly dependent on the price of wheat, and even flour, because the bread the wheat is not so high. Grain prices will almost never affect the cost of bread. The main factor of annual inflation.
"The price of a loaf of bread, which the buyer picks store, grain accounts for only 20-25 percent. The rest is the cost of processing grain into flour, the wages of bakers, electricity, transport costs, mark-up the retail network and so forth," — says Pavel Skurikhin, President of the National Union of grain producers.
Buyer pays for cost components that vary within the country in line with inflation. And there are components in this simple product quite a lot, and they are all increasing in price. This, in particular, expenditure on water, electricity, gas, spare parts, payroll, sewage water, modernization of production.
That is the main factor affecting the price of bread, ' inflation processes. Experts suggest that the bread in the coming months even surpass inflation. The main reasons for the rise of the dollar, the cost of petrol and the VAT increase.
Siberian grain market in anticipation of rising value of wheat and flour. Because of the spring weather and autumn rains in урожае2018 dominated by grain class 4, which is atypical for the macro-region
A feature of the current harvesting campaign in Western Siberia — shifted by two weeks of ripening and harvesting of the crops due to spring weather, heavy rains in August and September. "Only 20 days of September fell to an average of 80 percent of the monthly norm, and in the North and in the steppe part of the region to 1.9 rules. In this regard, the mean annual rate of harvest the farmers of the Altai region came only to September 17," — commented the course of the harvesting campaign, the acting first Deputy Chairman of the government of the Altai territory Alexander Lukyanov. And Krasnoyarsk Krai, on the contrary, faced drought: may-July, crops died on the area 16,35 thousand hectares.
Under these conditions, the success of the harvest depended on how warm and dry will be the fall. And the weather did not disappoint. Government grain flagships Siberia — Omsk and Novosibirsk regions, Altai and Krasnoyarsk territories — at the end of September said that farmers fully provide domestic needs in raw materials. "According to preliminary forecast, it is planned to obtain the gross grain harvest was 2.3 million tons in bunker weight, the weight will be 2.1 million tons of grain. The expected grain harvest will close the demand of the region in seeds, fodder for livestock public, private farms and for the production of bakery products. The volume of grain harvest in 2018 to free exercise and to make payments to creditors will be 816,1 thousand tons", — said the Minister of agriculture of the Novosibirsk region Evgeny Leshchenko.
By 3 October the Siberian farmers had the corn a little more than 2/3 of the area — 6.2 million acres, or 69.7%, from the harvesting area versus 8.2 million a year earlier. The expected harvest of 3 million tons of agricultural producers of Omsk oblast gathered by October 1, 1.53 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, despite the fact that in 2017, on this date, farmers received 3.05 million tons.
"The gross harvest of grain and leguminous made up 3.78 million tons. In the context of cultures: wheat received 1.66 million tonnes, oats — 582 thousand tons, barley — 352 thousand tons. Yield of grain legumes this year, below the level of 2017, when on 1 October, we received 3.84 million tons. This is due both to weather conditions and changes in the structure of sown areas in the direction of increasing high-margin crops, technical crops," explains the acting Minister of agriculture of the Altai territory Alexandr Chebotaev.
The grain is not ripe
According to the official data of the regional governments, the average yield of grain and leguminous crops this year is higher than last year and 18.2 t/ha, against 16,6 t/ha in 2017. For example, in the Omsk region it is equal to 16.9 t/ha, which is a hundredweight higher than in 2017. The yield of spring wheat is 16.3 t/ha (2017 — 15.8 C/ha). The highest productivity of over 20 t/ha — farms reached Omsk, Krasnyy and Gorky regions. The highest average yield in Siberia, as in the previous year, recorded in the Krasnoyarsk region — the 23.6 t/ha. Farmers Uzhurskaya district received a 39.7 t/ha, Emelyanovsky district — 29,2 C/ha, Nizhneingashskiy area — 26,4 kg/ha.
However, not all market participants agree with the official statistics. "I do not see the high yields of wheat. Don't know, according to the regional Ministry of agriculture, but in our Krasnodarskomu the district of Novosibirsk region yield about a quintal lower than last year. Worse and grain quality. Still some places on the fields is immature harvest", — says the Chairman of the Board of Directors of JSC "Polovinsky Elevator" Denis Subbotin.
The low quality of grain is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Novosibirsk flour-grinding enterprise "Avangard" Oleg Yevsyukov "the Quality of wheat this year low, is dominated by 4th grade. Even if grain high gluten content, lagging behind other indicators. For example, due to high humidity, falling number of wheat below normal. Flour from such grain will not do."
However, the regional authorities are optimistic that they will be able to keep most of the harvested crop. The region has enough capacities for processing and drying of grain, their total capacity — 120 thousand tons per day. This allows for cleaning in difficult weather conditions. In the past year households purchased and installed drying of elevators totaling more than 1 billion rubles. Over the past month purchased and installed about ten of dryers and drying systems", — stressed Alexander Chebotaev.
On 27 September, the fgbu branch "rosselkhoztsentr" in the Novosibirsk region checked 83,9 thousand tons of wheat, or 15.3% of gross collection. The share of grain class 2 was 0.1% (50 tons), class 3 — 34,4% (28,9 thousand tons) despite the fact that a year ago it reached 51%, class 4 — a 48.3% (40.6 thousand tons), class 5 is 17.2% (14.4 thousand tons).
In Altai Krai the share of class 3 slightly higher — 38%. 40% of collected wheat falls for 4th grade. "Compared to last year, grain quality is lower due to the leaching of nitrogen in the soil caused by waterlogging in the spring, as well as the shortage of the crops of the sum of effective temperatures," explains Alexander Chebotaev. While in the Altai branch of the fgbi "Center for grain quality assessment" noted that in the grain class 4 protein contains 1.5–2% more than last year. By this measure, the grain complies with the requirements provided raw materials for export.
The head of the grain direction of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Oleg Sukhanov, one of the reasons of low quality of grain in Siberia sees in saving business for seed and fertilizer. "The more economy, the greater the loss in the event of adverse market conditions. Having low financial result from the sale of grain and products of its processing in the past year, some large holdings have saved this year not to buy high-quality seeds, imported seeds have replaced domestic. We have seen how in Central Russia and in Siberia" — said the expert.
According to Oleg Sukhanov, and this year Russia wheat 3rd class dominates only in the Volga region — Samara, Saratov, Volgograd regions.
The decline in the share of 3-grade wheat will not lead to shortage of grain in Siberia, said the President of the Union of grain processors of Altay Valery Gachman. "Siberian agricultural producers are always trying to hold quality grain before the advent of the best prices in the market. In the autumn of last year we were faced with the fact that the Altai suddenly disappeared grain with a high gluten content. For the formation of the grinding parties were forced to buy wheat in the Krasnoyarsk territory. However, in February, Altai grain market reappeared supply of quality wheat. However, Altai farmers then lost: the price of grain by this time has fallen markedly," — recalls the expert.
Now, according to the Ministry of agriculture and food of the Omsk region wheat of 3 class in the region is sold at a price of 8.1–9.5 thousand rubles per ton with VAT, class 4 — 7-7,8 thousand rubles. This is 30-35% higher than a year ago. In the Novosibirsk region wheat of 3 class costs an average of 8,2 thousand roubles, the 4th class — more than 6.9 thousand. In Krasnoyarsk region farmers sell their grain, 3 class, 7 thousand rubles, grain class 4 over 7.3 thousand.
"In September on the grain market of Altai region was dominated by positive trends. By the end of last month, the procurement price of wheat of 3 class was at the level of 8.2 thousand rubles per ton without VAT, for wheat of class 4 — 6.7 thousand rubles. Compared to the same period last year, the price of class 3 increased by 2.3 thousand rubles, class 4 — 1.6 thousand rubles. However, the price of grain in the Altai region is much lower than in the European part and southern regions of Russia. Wheat is cheaper by 2.5–3 thousand rubles, and the feed is 3-3. 4 thousand rubles", — said Alexander Chebotaev.
According to the results of the harvesting campaign experts predict a further growth of prices for high-quality grain, which will impact on the cost of flour. "We hope that the rates on grain and flour continue to grow. Since the beginning of August, flour had risen from 13.5 thousand to 15.5 thousand rubles per ton. This allows the millers to work with a margin of 5-8%. Further growth will affect the purchasing power of the Siberians. To the consumer it is difficult to explain why such a low official inflation rate flour was more expensive. It's hard to explain it to the Miller and the retailer," says Valery Gachman. "About 15% of the increased prices for wheat in the European part of the country after the completion of the harvest, the same growth we expect in Siberia", — said Oleg Sukhanov.
Unlike last year, when Siberia collided with the overproduction of grain, and Federal authorities had to hastily solve the problem of shortage of grain this year, experts do not predict significant pressure to market a new crop. "Carry-overs of crops on July 1 was $ 906 thousand tons, including 423 thousand tonnes the state intervention Fund. As of September 21, grain elevators and cereal receiving enterprises remained in storage USD 362.5 thousand tons", — told Evgeniy Leshchenko. On October 1, to the grain companies and grain elevators of the Krasnoyarsk territory hosted 467,4 thousand tons of grain from the Federal intervention Fund (FIF), which is 80 thousand tons less than in 2017. It is expected that by January 1, 2019 the stock of FIF in the region will be reduced to 375 thousand tons.
"Russia highly export — oriented country. Although Siberia is far from ports, anyway it is included in this process. Even if the Siberian grain traders do not sell abroad, they replace the grain that is exported. We expect demand and prices for grain this year is higher than last year," predicts Oleg Sukhanov from ICARUS. "Now the demand for Siberian grain is much higher than last year. The country has harvested less than in the year 2017, the volume of export of grain traders to reduce not want. And rightly so," — emphasizes Valery Gachman. Currently, wheat of 4 class in the world market worth $ 220-230 per tonne, which is 20-35 dollars more than a year ago.
Regional ministries of agriculture expect the part harvested this year grain supply abroad. Authorities say the steadily growing exports and the expansion of sales geography. According to the office of Rosselkhoznadzor for the Omsk region for the first eight months of the current year the volume of export of grain and products of its processing amounted to 305 thousand tons. This is 59% or 113 thousand tons more than for the whole of 2017. This year, the region began to ship barley to Iran, and lentil in Algeria. There is a preliminary agreement on the supply of grain for export to China, the countries of North Africa and the Mediterranean.
Novosibirsk exporters up to the end of the year plan to put abroad more than 300 thousand tons of grain. The region exports grains and oilseeds to China, Mongolia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Denmark, Latvia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Germany. The issue of supplies to Afghanistan and Iran.
Krasnoyarsk business and plans to ship beyond the region of 500 thousand tons of grain and oilseeds the current crop. "Usually, 70-80 percent of shipments accounted for wheat, 10-15% — in barley, from 5 to 20 per cent on other crops. The shipment is planned to be implemented in more than 30 regions of Russia and also for export, primarily to China and Mongolia," said the acting Deputy Chairman of Krasnoyarsk Krai government — Minister of agriculture and trade Leonid Shorohov.
Record grain exports from Russia became the reason of bankruptcy of companies in the U.S.
American farmers are suffering losses due to the growth of export of Russian grain, according to The Wall Street Journal. In the United States rose more farms. Moreover, their withdrawal from the market happening at a pace that has not been observed since the 1980s, wrote the American daily business newspaper. The reasons for the publication sees record grain harvest in the Russian Federation.
Meanwhile, Russia is quite able to build on their success, sure of our experts. But to increase overseas supplies of grain we will be exclusively taking into account the interests of the internal market, they believe. I strongly advise the Russian agricultural authorities.
In the past crop year, which ended on 30 June 2018, Russia has collected a record harvest grain in the amount of 135,4 million tons and exported over 40 million tons of wheat. Compared to the previous year the foreign supply has doubled. Our country is already the second time becomes the leader. The first time it happened in 2016. A major competitor of Russia on the world grain market is the United States.
Undermines the U.S. position in a trade war with China and other countries. In particular, China has imposed duties of 25 percent on U.S. products, including wheat. If the biggest importers of wheat will impose retaliatory duties on U.S. grain, Russia's position in this market strengthened even more fear in the United States. About it writes The Wall Street Journal. The advantage of Russian grain is not only its price but also quality, which has grown in recent years, say U.S. analysts. The last remark is especially valuable because some time the quality of our grain was not particularly stand out. But since competitors already recognize - it's worth it.
Russia will continue to strengthen its positions on the world grain market, the Russian expert said. This year, according to forecasts of the Ministry of agriculture, the expected grain harvest in the amount of 105 million tons. While exports are expected to go to about 30 million tons of wheat.
But we need to take into account the situation on the domestic market, experts say.
Russian grain producers are in the grip: costs are rising, and the cost of goods within the country remains the same, says the President of the Russian grain Union Arkady Zlochevskiy. However, the industry helped just export.
"In 2014, came the sanctions that brought down the ruble. As a result, Russian grain began to compete not only with the us. In the Egyptian market we pressed the French and the Romanians", he said.
Now the problems with the profitability of wheat production, at least in the regions of export-oriented, not, agrees the head of the grain direction of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Oleg Sukhanov. But on the other hand, consolidating its status as a world supplier of grain, in addition, Russia is dependent on foreign markets.
This year, domestic grain prices are higher than the previous year, as increased world prices, the ruble fell, and the grains will collect less, says Sukhanov. The result could increase the cost of food within the country. For example, the price of pork has gradually grow, he said. To further push the growth of prices may be the desire of traders to limit the sale of grain on the domestic market for profitable export. "In conditions of declining national currency, the grain suppliers are interested to stay "in the product" and not in rubles. That is, they will hold the grain," says Sukhanov.
American analysts fear that Russian grain will continue to displace corn from USA
The price of Russian grain is lower than that of other competitor countries. But we are not engaged in dumping, underlines the General Director of the analytical center "Prozerno" Vladimir Petrichenko. Rather, from other suppliers - the French, the Americans - seed is very expensive due to high costs. Especially in this season of expensive grain from Australia, said the expert.
As for quality, many of our experts in their assessments of stricter American. They believe that the problem is far from exhausted. And the fascination with exports leads to the consolidation of the production of wheat of the fourth class.
Now it is at least 50 percent of the total. However, not all analysts share these concerns.
The Russian classification differs from the world. We got to the fourth class includes a wide range of wheat with indicators of protein content from 10.5% to 12.5%, says Vladimir Petrichenko. In the end grain with a lower protein content comes to countries where requirements are lower, for example in Bangladesh and the high protein in Egypt, but all the grain of the fourth class. "We produce wheat of the quality that the buyers want," he says. Russian farmers are not interested to purposely reduce the quality of the wheat, agrees Oleg Sukhanov. In fact, he adds, the Russian wheat of the fourth class the quality is not inferior and even superior to most similar products from other countries. In addition, about 20-30 percent of the total, Russia produces wheat of the third class. In the last two years was a slight decrease in grain quality due to the weather, admits the expert. But in General, the level of technology, amount of applied fertilizers, means of protection of plants from year to year. So the quality of grain will grow, says Sukhanov.
And Russia will increase grain exports, Zlochevsky said. It has to resources. Obtained on world markets, the profits of Russian grain allows farmers to invest in production development.
Our main interest of Russia is not the China that consumes grain not so much. "We are now fighting for India, Sri Lanka, Philippines. Especially important to Indonesia, which will soon become a grain buyer number one on the world market", - says Petrichenko.
As for the growth of food prices in the country, for their containment needs balance. "The state in some years, subsidized the transportation of grain within the country. This year, while the market looks quite steady, perhaps, some additional measures of the state do not need," says Sukhanov.
Meanwhile, the financing of the program of development of agriculture in 2022-2025 years in Russia can be allocated is 1.7 trillion rubles, provided in the updated draft programme. Including allocations from the Federal budget makes 1,5 trillion rubles. Thus, the state program provides two options indicators the purpose of the document: baseline and target.
In case of preservation of volumes of resource provision of the programme at the level of 2018, the growth rate of exports of agricultural products in 2025 will be 120,8 percent by 2017. If funding will be increased by 696 billion, exports of agriculture in 2025 will grow 2.2 times to figures for 2017.
In Russia, more expensive flour. In August, the average wholesale price of flour rose to 17 thousand rubles per ton with VAT. Compared to the same month in 2017, the cost increased by 3.9 percent.
The main reason is a noticeable increase in the price of grain. This is one of the main export goods of Russia, therefore its prices within the country are rising along with the world. The process of appreciation is uneven. According to the Institute for agricultural market studies, is now the darling of the baking flour in the Central Russian wholesale is 17.5 thousand rubles per ton. In Siberia, the same flour is the cheapest. For example, in the Altai ton in the average price of 14.7 thousand rubles. Where does this imbalance and will it level off?
Everything is quite simple. In the European part of Russia began refining more expensive grain from the new harvest. And to the East of the country - in the Urals and in Siberia - enterprises mostly use wheat and rye harvest of the last year. This is because to send grain for export to Siberian farmers is much harder than to do the same to their colleagues from southern and Central Russia near the black sea ports. But the situation was soon to change. About it the correspondent "RG" reported Boris Benkovsky, Vice-President of the Russian Guild of bakers and confectioners and President of Altai of the Russian Guild of bakers and confectioners.
- No more than a month, the price of flour will increase, - said Boris Benkovsky. - Only in July-August this year exports from Russia has left about 20 million tons of grain. The price of grain at the freight increases. Germany and several other European countries, survived the drought, gathered a small crop. Therefore, Russia can open up new markets. I'm not talking about the markets of Egypt, Turkey, Iran. Stocks of grain in Krasnodar and Stavropol territories not rubber. Pumped the grain out, traders will look inland. The increase in the cost of transportation on 1,5-2 thousand rubles per ton, an obstacle will not. Therefore, any export consignment can form of Siberian grain.
According to the calculations of bakers and confectioners, the price of flour in Siberia will grow at least up to 16 thousand rubles per ton. Why not to 17 thousand as the center of the country? In order not to lose the usual markets, the Altai millers have squeezed in price at the expense of profitability, but not at the expense of the cost of grain, which will grow.
Grain and flour - communicating vessels. Remember spring surge in grain prices. Processors for a month just "froze" when the prices jumped, and the flour did not have time to grow up. But a month later, they again came into line.
It should be noted that the domestic market of Russia is saturated with flour and no shortage is expected. And the price of it will largely depend on the state regulation of the grain market. Flour was and remains a strategic product. Therefore, the Altai millers continue to develop production capacity. For example, Tabunskogo Elevator completes a mill complex capacity of 400 tons per day and cost more than 500 million rubles. After commissioning this fall of a new mill is six stories Tabunskogo Elevator will increase capacity for the production of flour twice.
Anna Microcinema, the head of the control of agro-industrial complex of the FAS Russia:
- The FAS may issue a warning in fact statements about a possible increase in prices for flour and bread. We can check manufacturers at the treatment of citizens, and complaints of economic entities. In management FAS in regions where there is a high level of concentration of production, will be sent a letter with a request to strengthen the control of compliance with Antimonopoly legislation in the market.
Moscow. INTERFAX - the Area under rye in Russia this year brought to a historic low. The price of this grain, which is used in bakery and feed industry, can grow, experts predict of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR).
As reported "Interfax" in ICARUS, the decline in acreage of rye has been observed over many years. The maximum they were in 1990, almost 8 million hectares In the 10 years up to 2000, they decreased to 3.5 million ha. In 2005 the area was 2.3 million hectares in five years, it decreased to 1.8 million ha.
In 2018 the acreage has updated a historic low and amounted to only 990 thousand hectares.
Accordingly, fell and yields of this cereal. According to Rosstat, the maximum collection of rye over the past five years occurred in 2013, when it was raised to 3.36 million tonnes of grain. In 2017, the harvest declined to 2.5 million tons.
As explained in ICARUS, the reasons for the fall associated with a decrease in the use of rye in the production of animal feed and for milling purposes.
Experts do not exclude that the reduction in space can lead to higher prices for rye, especially on high quality grain milling conditions.
According to the company "Prozerno", the growth of prices for food rye last week was recorded in the Volga region. There are a ton of rye rose by 50 rubles, up to 6 050 rubles. In other regions, the price situation remained calm.
INTERFAX - Count on the fact that the export of grain this agricultural year (July 2018-June 2019) will be supported by carryover stocks, not worth it. It is necessary to hope mainly for a new crop, the General Director of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko.
"Calculations show that, despite the enormous crop of last year (135.4 million tonnes - if), carryover stocks of grain at the beginning of the new agricultural year was less than last year," said Rylko, "Interfax".
According to him, amounted to 17.9 million tonnes against 18 million tonnes a year earlier. "So reserves to support exports at the expense of stocks, by and large, no," he said. This is due, primarily, with huge exports, according to IKAR, in the last marketing year (July 2017-June 2018) was 54.2 million tonnes, including "informal" exports to Kazakhstan.
"We see that in the stocks is a bit of barley and wheat that can still be exported, but it's not millions, but hundreds of thousands of tons, including grain, in mainland Russia, where it is difficult to get abroad", - said the head of IKAR.
According to the forecast of IKAR, the export of grain this agricultural year will be 41 million tons, including 32.5 million tons of wheat. The gross grain harvest Dmitry Rylko estimates of 112.8 million tons, including 70.8 million tons of wheat.
INTERFAX - Experts of the grain market forecasts of grain harvest in Russia this year because of the drought that hit some key grain-producing regions.
"The June forecast - a total of 115.4 million tonnes of grain, including 70,9 million tons of wheat," - said "Interfax" the General Director of "Prozerno" Vladimir Petrichenko.
In may, he estimated the harvest at 117 million and 71 million tonnes, respectively.
But the June estimate will be adjusted, said V. Petrichenko.
According to him, for the Outlook to change there are "pluses and minuses". In particular, in the South of the initial concerns crop losses have been overstated. "He said that "all is lost", but not all gone" - he said.
"The pros will be in Siberia, black Earth and Ural cons - in some areas of Chernozem region, in particular in the South and South-East, he predicts. - The difficult situation in the lower Volga region, where the crops were struck by the arid phenomenon. However, in the middle Volga region the rains, wait, maybe they'll take the lower Volga region".
Grain Union, which forecast in early June was 115-120 million tons, reduced it to 114 million tons.
According to Vice-President of the Union Alexander Korbut, the wheat harvest is estimated at $ 69-73 million tons. "But a lot will depend on what will be the situation in the fields of Siberia and the Urals, as there will be a maid," said he.
Analytical center of JSC Rusagrotrans lowered the forecast of grain harvest to 115,7 million tons, wheat to 71.4 million tons. Evaluation of end of may - beginning of June was 120-125,8 million tons, including a 73.5-77.4 million tons of wheat. "The forecast changed due to the drought in the South and in the Volga region, - said the head of the center Igor Pavensky. By the end of the month it can be adjusted to the prevailing weather conditions".
For the same reasons, has lowered the forecast and the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR).
According to General Director IKAR Dmitry Rylko, the forecast of gross yield reduced from 114,7 million tons to at 112.8 million tonnes. The new estimate of the wheat harvest is 70.8 million tonnes (previous 71,5 million tons), corn - 11.8 million tonnes (12.3 million tonnes), barley - 17.5 million tonnes (17.8 million tonnes).
The forecast for grain exports IKAR lowered to 41 million tonnes to 43.2 million tonnes of the previous forecast. Including assessment of exports of wheat decreased to 32.5 million tons from 33 million tons.
The Ministry of agriculture adheres to the earlier forecast that the grain harvest this year will amount to 100 million tons. Last year, Russia harvested a record 135.4 million tons of grain exported in the 2017/2018 marketing year, according to the Agency, to 52.4 million tonnes.
(Reuters) the Agency IKAR has lowered the forecast of grain harvest in Russia in 2018 to of 112.8 million tonnes with 114,7 million tons previously forecast exports in 2018/19 season has been reduced to 41.0 million tonnes to 43.2 million tonnes.
The Agency has announced that it has lowered the forecast of wheat harvest 70.8 million tonnes 71.5 million tonnes, wheat exports - up to 32.5 million tons with 33 million tons.
Forecast the corn harvest at the same time reduced to 11.8 million tonnes from 12.3 million tonnes, barley - 17.5 million tons from 17.8 million tons.
Industry experts reduce forecasts and harvest of grain exports from Russia due to the effects of adverse weather this year. The agriculture Ministry predicts a grain harvest of 100 million tons, export - 40-45 million tons.
Market participants report a possible problems with the harvest of barley and corn
MOSCOW, July 11. /TASS/. Market participants note the increase in wholesale prices of millet in 2.5 times for the year, while not excluding that in the future the cost of this type of grain will grow. This view was expressed by TASS interviewed experts.
"Last year at the end of the season because wholesale prices were about 11 rubles per 1 kg, this year they are 28 rubles. Most likely, prices will be even higher by the end of next year", - said General Director of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko. At the same time, according to him, the end of the season 2010, wholesale prices have reached a record level of 50 rubles per 1 kg. however, he still found it difficult to answer the question of how the prices could rise this year.
The expert explained that for the second consecutive year Russia sowed millet record low area. "Last year was a record low sowing, but the grain was in good condition. This year we have continued low Seva, and we see bad condition [of grain]", - he explained.
The main consumers of millet, according to Rylko, is the fans of millet porridge and homemade parrots and Canaries. "The fact that when it comes to the interests parrots and kanareek, it is ready to pay big money, which actually happened in 2010," he said. The expert noted that in Russia millet is nothing to replace it, but in case of any deficiency will have to buy wheat in Poland or other European countries.
Some difficulties with the harvest of the millet notes the head of the Russian grain Union (RGU) Arkady Zlochevsky, but urges not to attach importance to this. "We came through last season with so-called conventional deficiency of millet, but it is not noticed none of the population," he says. In his view, millet is not in large demand in Russia.
The forecast for barley, corn and buckwheat
The Director of the analytical centre "Sovekon" Andrey Sizov does not exclude the occurrence in Russia the problems with the harvest of barley and corn. The expert has reduced the forecast for the barley crop to 16.9 million tons from 17.8 million tons, corn - from 12.7 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes, "Steady-state, dry weather is largely not important for wheat, which is already formed, and more important for these crops", he said. In his opinion, if the regions producing these crops in the next week or two will not pass appreciable rain, then will take damage on the productivity of these crops.
However, according to Sizov, possible problems with these crops will not affect consumers. "If we're talking about consumers, those who walk in the store, I don't think they'll notice. Prices do not rise, it will be about hundredths of a percent to inflation. Still, the harvest to be quite high because stocks are quite high," he said.
The problems with buckwheat, the deficit of which happened in the Russian market in 2010 and 2014, this year experts do not expect. "I'm very good with buckwheat, there are carry-over inventory, that the fear of something is not necessary", - said Zlochevsky.
The decline forecast for the grain harvest
In connection with the drought in some regions of Russia and late sowing in the East most experts lowered its forecast for the grain harvest in Russia. According to Rylko, IKAR has reduced the forecast of grain harvest with 114,8 million tonnes to of 112.8 million tons, with expectations for wheat production declined from 71.5 70.8 million tonnes, barley production - from 17.8 to 17.5 million tonnes, maize production - from 12.3 to 11.5 million tonnes, IKAR also cut its forecast for grain exports from 43.2 million tonnes to 41 million tonnes.
Downgraded and "Sovekon". "The Outlook for grains in General has been reduced from 118,6 million tons to 113.9 million tonnes, wheat - from 72.5 million tonnes to 69.6 million tonnes, due to the fact that there was a low initial yield, dry weather, the spread of drought in the regions of the South, in the Volga region and Central", - said Sizov.
The Russian grain Union still retains the forecast for grain harvest in the amount 107-110 million tons, but does not exclude that it can be lowered and raised depending on weather conditions, said Zlochevsky. According to him, the Union forecast for exports is about 40 million tons, of which 30 million tons will be wheat.
Saves the Outlook for exports, the head of the analytical center of "Rusagrotrans" Igor Pavensky. He said that the expectations of the centre for crop be 115,7 million tonnes, but did not rule out the possibility that the forecast will be adjusted depending on weather conditions. Forecast of the export centre of the main grain - 43 million tonnes, of which 32-33 mln tonnes will be wheat
According to the official forecast of the Ministry of agriculture the grain harvest in Russia this year will amount to 100 million tons, exports in the agricultural year 2018-2019 - 45 million tonnes Russian grain Harvest in 2017 amounted to 135.4 million tonnes of grain exports in the agricultural year 2017-2018 - to 52.4 million tonnes.
The record harvest will not be without rain
The lack of rain in several Russian regions in the coming weeks could seriously affect the grain harvest this year. Under adverse conditions indicator, which in 2017 reached a record 135 million tonnes, may drop to 105 million of This will be the minimum value from 2014-2015 and will support prices in the world wheat market, where Russia began to play a key role.
On the background of protracted dry weather in several regions, analysts have begun to revise estimates of the grain harvest in Russia in 2018. "Sovekon" has lowered the forecast of the new harvest grain 188,6 million to 113.9 million tonnes (wheat — from 72.5 million to 69.6 million tonnes), the Institute for agricultural market (IKAR) — 114,7 million to RUR 112.8 million tonnes (from 71.5 million to 70.8 million tons). The decrease in forecast production is due to the low starting yield in the South and the preservation of dry weather in Central and Povolzh'e probably started to damage the crop yield in these regions, the report said "Sovekon". The greatest threat the drought poses to crops; winter crops, according to yield, are not so bad to survive the drought of recent months due to the moisture reserves, said the Director of "Sovekon" Andrey Sizov. Now analysts predict a center collection of spring wheat at 18.4 million tons, which can be a minimum value in 2014. For comparison, the winter wheat crop is expected to reach 51.1 mln tons — is the minimum in 2015.
Part of the forecast was lowered due to the unusually dry condition of the grain, which is now going to the South, says the General Director of IKAR Dmitry Rylko. He notes that at the rate of 12-13% moisture content of harvested grain reaches 10-10,5%. However, the starting yield in the South was higher than previously expected, says the head of the analytical center of "Rusagrotrans" Igor Pavensky.
Igor Pavensky while waiting for grain yield in 2018 at the level of 115,7 million tonnes (71,4 million tons of wheat), adding that the numbers can be adjusted at the end of the month with the prevailing weather conditions. According to "SovEcon", the yield of grain in the South is at the level of 38.8 centners from 1 hectare against a 43.8 a year earlier. The Ministry of agriculture forecast grain harvest of 100 million tons.
The decline in wheat harvest in the South, combined with low stocks in the region may heighten the competition for grain between exporters, predict in "Sovekon". Last June the forecast of analysts assumes the export of this season's 47.2 million tonnes of grain, including 36.9 million tons of wheat. "These estimates are beginning to look very optimistic and in July will be seriously reduced," says Mr Sizov. In IKAR has lowered the forecast of grain exports this season from 43.2 million to 41 million tons, and wheat — from 33 million to 32.5 million tons. The agriculture Ministry estimates the total grain exports at the level of 40-45 million tons. The decline in supply could weaken competition between exporters for the transhipment capacity and lead to a drop in interest rates, says Andrey Sizov. According to his calculations, the rates for the transshipment of wheat for $2-4 higher than last year's level.
The main intrigue, according to mister Rylko, will the rainfall over the spring in the coming weeks: if this does not happen, the forecast can be reduced. On the other hand, he continues, rainfall in the center and the Volga region can badly affect the wheat crop, harvesting of which is now massively launched in the regions. "In the Urals and in Siberia, thus sowing campaign stretched on the record late dates. It is important that the grain time to ripen before the autumn weather, which requires a fairly long summer",— says the expert.
Andrei Sizov does not exclude that the new crop of grain may be below the level of 2014-2015 (105,3–104,8 million tonnes). In this case, global and then domestic prices will receive additional support, he said. According to him, Russia on the world market are now watching everything as it determines the mood of the market of wheat in the new season. At the end of last week, average export prices for Russian wheat was $197 per ton (FOB). Internally, the third class wheat was trading at 9.1 thousand rubles per ton, fourth — 8.9 thousand rubles per ton.
The grain fell on the background of reduction of fears for the harvest
Pessimistic predictions of low wheat harvest in Russia this year may not be justified. Started last week, cleaning of barley, which is judged by the level of wheat harvest, showed good pace. Against this background informed parastasie export prices for Russian wheat fell to $3.5 to $202,5 per ton, returning to the values of the end of may.
Last week, export prices for Russian wheat have declined from $3.5 to $202,5 per ton (FOB), reported "Sovekon". According to the General Director of "Prozerno" Vladimir Petrichenko, wheat from Russia is trading at $204-205 per ton. The General Director of Institute of a conjuncture of the agrarian markets (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko estimated average trading level of $203 per ton.
Prices for Russian wheat began to decline following the quotations at the world exchanges. According to estimates, "SovEcon", the July contract for wheat in Chicago fell by 3% to $185,2 per ton, which was at least a few weeks. On the stock exchange in Paris, the September contract is trading at $207,5 per ton, which is 1.8% less level a week ago. As a result, export prices for Russian wheat has returned to indicators of the end of may — about $203. However the starting price level for the Russian wheat before the start of the new season exceeds the indicator of June 2017 for about $25.
For operational customs data cited by Ministry of agriculture, since the beginning of the season, on 13 June, Russia exported about 50.5 million tons of grain — more than 47% compared to the same period last year. The supply of wheat grew by 49% to 39 million tonnes. "Sovekon" I do not exclude that by the end of the season total exports of grain from Russia will exceed 54 million tonnes.
The Director of "Sovekon" Andrey Sizov noted that the increase in export prices of wheat from Russia, observed from the end of may, was largely due to inflated fears of serious problems with the harvest in Russia and Ukraine. But last week, started cleaning grain, and it became clear that the most pessimistic assessment of the new crop, primarily in Russia, not confirmed, which is also reflected in the prices, he says. The new harvest of grain began with winter barley, and the degree of correlation in the yield with the yield of winter wheat high notes "Sovekon". So, on June 13, the yield of barley in the Krasnodar region ranges from 33 tons per 1 ha in the southern regions, up to 68 quintals per 1 ha in the North. Thus, writes "SovEcon", the average yield of barley at the start of the harvest reaches 57.8 per hundredweight from 1 hectare against 60.6 per hundredweight from 1 hectare a year earlier.
The first harvesting of the new grain crop may indicate a relatively good wheat crop, according to mister Petrichenko. But the harvesting of winter barley in the South began two weeks earlier than usual, and is one of the signs of the dry conditions, indicates mister Rylko. "Sovekon" estimates the grain harvest in Russia in 2018 at 119.6 million tons, including 73,1 million tons of wheat. The forecast of IKAR — 114 million tonnes 71.5 million tonnes, respectively. In 2017, according to estimates from Rosstat, Russia gathered a record 135.4 million tons of grain, including 85,8 million tons of wheat.
If further observations confirm the existing relatively good as a new grain crop in Russia, the export price of wheat in the coming weeks may be reduced to $200 per ton and below, predicts Andrei Sizov. According to Dmitry Rylko, the prospects of the wheat harvest in the Kuban region are seen very good in this region IKAR expects a yield close to the record of last year. But in General, he warns, the harvest in the South will be below last year in the Rostov, Volgograd oblasts and Stavropol Krai, the drought impact is much stronger.
As said Vladimir Petrichenko, the starting benchmark export prices for Russian wheat in the new season may be the last tender of the Egyptian state company GASC held on 12 June. Then, according to the "SovEcon", GASC bought 300 thousand tons of wheat from Russia with shipment 15-25 July at a price of $209,5–210 per tonne (FOB).
Departing the growing season was marked by a number of records in crop production. A record or close to it and lower prices for many crops. So, grain prices have fallen to levels from three years ago, the price of sugar beets was comparable with its cost, lost margin, even high-yield oilseeds. What was this agricultural year?
Ramil Nizametdinov, Director of the state farm "Alekseevsky" (Bashkiria)
Despite the decline in sales prices of agricultural products in season 2017/18, our farm feels confident in the market. Last year gross harvest of greenhouse vegetables in the economy amounted to 15.5 thousand tonnes, which is 9% higher than a year earlier. Due to the expansion of the production areas and improve yields, the profitability of this segment could be maintained at a high level.
Over the next three years we plan to implement two major investment projects: to upgrade the existing greenhouse area 2.5 hectares, setting system, assimilation lighting and build new greenhouses of 5 ha, also system with assimilation lighting. Of course, for their implementation to us very important support. In particular, we expect the allocation of soft loans with extended repayment period to 15 years, as well as to recover 20% of the amount of capital costs to build. In addition, we hope to continue subsidizing interest rates on investment loans.
With regard to grain production, the harvest last year increased by 42% to 27 thousand tons as the farm works on the closed cycle "from field to counter", all the products we sell only in processed form (flour, bakery products, mixed fodder). This increases the added value and increases the profitability of the business.
Vadim Lepler, General Director of agricultural enterprise "Elm" (Tula region)
Season-2017/18 developed for our company as satisfactory. Although, of course, could be better. The main disappointment — the low prices for the products. During the implementation of harvest 2016 summer 2017 prices were high and then declined sharply. Wheat of the fourth class cost about 6 thousand rubles per ton, barley — about the same. Per ton of sunflower gave about 15 thousand rubles., raps — about 19 thousand rubles (all prices are without VAT). In the past agricultural year all the agriculture cost 20-30% more.
If you calculate the economy of the enterprise, looms is not very rosy picture. Indeed, while product prices remain at low levels, fertilizer, fuel, seeds, spare parts and technology is steadily becoming more expensive. And the costs to the company of loans, leases and other items are not reduced. And the state support we receive (per hectare payments), helps to solve the issues.
Dmitry Rylko, the General Director of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR)
2017/18 crop year was good, but not as good as the previous one. The profitability of the business this season fell on average by 15-20%. Especially it concerns the production of sugar beet. The price increase showed a very few crops, such as soybeans. The situation negatively affected the increased cost of seed, fuel, spare parts and other means of agricultural production. Part may affect the situation in the state. But while it remains at the same level. That is, the costs of the farmers are growing, and the amount of aid from the state — no.
But there is confidence that next season we will meet with higher prices on agriculture and, therefore, the year should be better. The grain harvest is forecasted lower than last year, and its price will grow. Already a decrease of grain production in the world, which will also support prices. Can help and the ruble, if it is lower against the dollar than in 2017/18-M.
Dmitry Chapaev, Executive Director of the company "Roskhlopok" (Astrakhan region)
The past season for our company was successful. The price of cotton fiber has increased following the global trends. A year ago cotton was worth $2 million/ton, now $2,3 thousand/t. the demand for cotton in Russia is very high, especially in the textile industry. The entire crop, we implemented domestic partners.
In the nearest plans of the significant increase of crops. Simultaneously, we will improve the yield and quality of fibre. However, state support yet do not get any. Without government assistance to develop new business is very difficult.
Eugene CDs, General Director of "Krasnodarzernoprodukt-Expo" (KZP-Expo)
For the grain exporting season was much better than the previous one (2016/17). In particular, our company increased the volumes of export of grain of agricultural crops by about 18-20%. Most traditionally exported wheat. In General, the expected profit we got, and happy.
Vitaliy Shamaev, CEO of analytical company "Agrospiker"
If we talk about the production of grain and oil agricultures, ending the agricultural year was not particularly good for domestic growers. Record harvests for a number of positions received, but no money. It was affected by low purchase prices (in Siberia they fell to 6 thousand rubles per ton) and a stronger ruble. Almost all season it worked against the arable land. The cost of grain in the world was at the lows of the 2009-10 season and began to strengthen only from the beginning of this year.
In addition, continued to increase railway tariffs for transportation of agricultural products. Yes, the Ministry of agriculture has introduced a measure of market support, as subsidising of rail transportation of grain for export from remote regions. More than 1 million tons thus managed to take out, but considerable support for local farmers, this decision still did not. The purchase price in far regions was disastrous.
The cold in Siberia and drought in the South will negatively affect the yield
The analytical center "Sovekon" has lowered the forecast of wheat harvest in Russia in 2018 with the 78.2 million tonnes to 77 million tonnes according to Reuters, the revision is associated with delayed sowing of spring agricultural crops in Siberia. The forecast of grain harvest as a whole is lowered with 126,2 million tonnes to 124,9 million tons
Delay sowing in the Siberian Federal district is connected with the continuing snowfall in the region. "It is possible that due to the regional situation in Siberia we will continue to lower the forecasts on grain crops", — said the Director of "Sovekon" Andrey Sizov at the meeting of the Grain club. At the same time, the situation with winter crops in the whole country "Sovekon" evaluates as normal. According to Rosstat, as of may 1 the death of winter crops in agricultural enterprises amounted to 14.3 thousand ha or 0.2% of their crops, while last year the figure was higher and reached 47 thousand ha or 0.7% of the total area.
According to the Ministry of agriculture in the Siberian Federal district spring grains sowing to 24 may lagged behind last year's pace doubled. Including in the Altai region due to rains and snowfall by this date the crops were sown only 708 thousand hectares of the planned this year to 3.3 million hectares. according to the Ministry of agriculture of the region, given the weather factor, agriculture is revising the structure of sown areas, increasing the wedge feed and rely on planting varieties of crops with a short vegetation period. Three time lag is observed in the Novosibirsk region, where cereal crop species occupied only 18% of the area of the plan, of which the main crop of the region — wheat is sown on 116 thousand hectares (12% of the plan). As said before, the press service of the regional government, because of the difficult weather conditions in the region can be introduced a state of emergency. Acting Minister of agriculture of the Novosibirsk region Evgeny Leshchenko noted that such a regime "would allow for a more flexible approach to the regulation of the amounts of acreage and avoid potential penalties caused by failure of targets".
The Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) also intends to revise the forecast downward. "It will be announced next week, I can only say that it will definitely decrease," said "the Agroinvestor" the head of the grain direction IKAR Oleg Sukhanov. According to him, the situation in the Siberian Federal district is not critical, and the pace of planting can still catch up. "But the yield will not be what we expected. Also have a problem with dry weather in the South: the independent districts in the Stavropol territory, Volgograd and Rostov regions, in the Crimea. That is, the revision in yields will affect many regions as located in Siberia and in the South and centre of the country," said Sukhanov.
Analytical company "Prozerno" previously predicted grain harvest in 118.2 million so next week the forecast will be revised, said "Agroinvestor" CEO Vladimir Petrichenko. However, what will it be, the expert chose not to report.
Earlier, the Ministry of agriculture of the Rostov region called tense situation with precipitation. "In April and may, significantly less rain fell than last year and lower than average annual rate, in the upper layer of moisture is not enough. Have affected spring crops, which, due to the lack of moisture did not germinate fully, and therefore, there are problems with these crops," — said TASS, the Minister of agriculture and food of Rostov region Konstantin Rafalowski. In Crimea, the preliminary damage caused to farmers by the spring drought, estimated at 1 billion rubles, according to the head of the Republic Sergey Aksenov, "burned" about 100 thousand hectares of grain from 439,3 thousand hectares of crops. Also, the risk of drought may occur in the Volga (in six districts of the Volgograd region), has celebrated the local agricultural Department. Due to the dry weather affected parts of the crops and in the Krasnodar region, the Governor of the region Veniamin Kondratiev may 24. At the same time, according to him, the whole harvest in the Kuban is not expected below last year. "Certainly, the drought for us, too, presents a problem. But not all parts of the drought: there are areas would not be affected. Therefore, due to the high yields in areas where drought is not, I think we compensate for those areas where the harvest will be lower," — said TASS Kondratiev.
In the whole country in may, the difference of temperature from the figure reaches about 8 °C, announced this week the Director of hydrometeorological centre Roman Vilfand in an interview to "Rossiyskaya Gazeta". In June it is expected the situation is similar, and, in General, meteorologists expect the summer will be quite hot, the temperature background will be significantly higher than last year.
To may 24 spring grain agriculture in the country planted on 19.9 million hectares of the planned for this year to 31 million hectares, including spring wheat sowing was performed on 53%, spring barley — 80%, corn by 79%, follows from the operational monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture. Earlier, representatives of agricultural Ministry said that in connection with difficult weather conditions the sowing campaign while we intend to maintain a conservative forecast for the crop this year is 110 million tonnes.
Last year grain harvest in Russia amounted to record 135.4 million tonnes, including almost 85,9 million tons of wheat. A leader in its production is traditionally the southern Federal district, where he received 25.9 million t In the CFA crop agriculture amounted to 18.6 million tons in the Volga region — 17.9 mln t, in Siberia, and 9.9 million tons In the North Caucasus wheat crop was 8.3 million tonnes, in the Urals — 4.4 mln tonnes, in the North-West to 417 thousand tons in the far East — 280 thousand tons.
At the St. Petersburg international economic forum — 2018 was held the presentation of investment development of the sea port of Ust-Luga in the Kingisepp district of the Leningrad region.
"Our port in 2017 exceeded the record volume of cargo – over 100 million tons. Nice to know that this is not the limit, the port will continue to grow and develop. New project construction of grain terminal – are highly relevant. Our country occupies the leading position in the export of grain, and we need to provide the relevant port facilities to ensure quality and timely delivery of important goods to the recipients," — said the Governor of Leningrad region Alexander Drozdenko.
The project envisages the creation of three new terminals for grain processing, food products as well as General and bulk cargo. The receiving ability of the new port facilities will be more than 1 100 cars per day, or 20-25 million tons of cargo per year.
In the construction of the terminal will be invested at least 10 billion rubles. The new facilities will serve up to 1 thousands of port workers.
of the Governor and government Leningrad region
In the sphere of grain exports from Russia – a success that is rare in recent times amid the usual trouble in other areas. Planned in the current agricultural year (until July 2018) export 52 million tons of grain will be 46.5% higher than in the previous year (€35.5 million)., the Ministry of agriculture. Wheat improvement is even more significant – up to 40 million tonnes from 27.1 million tonnes, that is, by 47.6%. In this culture we are already ahead of USA that sell to export about 26 million tonnes, Although the total grain exports lag behind States with rate of about 80 million tonnes, but their exports of corn prevails. In wheat, Russia holds 22% of the world market, the EU -14%, 13%.
Success is associated with a record harvest of grain, amounting to 134,1 million tonnes by the end of 2017, and considerable reserves of approximately $ 32 million tonnes, 16% more than a year ago.
It is worth noting that this situation is combined with restrictions on harvest due to climatic conditions in the United States, Australia, and France. Therefore, a large physical volume of export from Russia is a happy combination of the rise in world wheat prices. Thus, the export price in mid-April 2018 was $ 208 dollars per ton of wheat, and by the end of April to $ 214, according to the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR). Thus, if the rough calculation take the price of 200 dollars, the revenue from wheat exports could reach 8-10 billion dollars per year. Furthermore, it should be borne in mind that the dollar / ruble exchange rate rose from 56 to 58 RUB past fall and winter to above 60 rubles in April-may 2018. This further increases the export revenue from the sale of grain.
By the end of 2018 is expected to harvest 110-115 million tons of grain, which is about 14% lower than the record 2017, Carryover stocks will probably also be less, because the current volume will go for export, which is beneficial in such a foreign environment. Therefore, the export potential of the next crop year while it is difficult to determine.
But there are certain nuances and the reality of today's grain market. The increase in exports and high export prices are creating upward pressure on the domestic procurement prices. The paradox is that at extremely high crop prices in the country are not reduced, and more increased, according to IKAR. However, to worry about the retail prices for bread is not necessary. It is socially significant products, the pricing of which is tightly controlled by antitrust and other services. Therefore, price increases above the General inflation level of 2.5-3% will not.