The price of chicken meat at retail has fallen over the past year by more than 10%. According to Petrostat, this is the only type of meat that continues to become cheaper, despite the overall inflation. For comparison, the price of pork fell by 1.7% and beef increased by 2% (according to December 2017 to December 2016). Experts say that if the cost of chicken will continue to decline, this could adversely affect the profitability of manufacturers.
Most affordable meat
The decrease in purchase and then consumer prices for chicken meat began at the end of 2016. According to experts, it is connected with active development of production and market saturation. The expert of Institute of a conjuncture of the agrarian market (IKAR) Anna Kudryakova notes that the growth of chicken meat production last year amounted to about 8%. Thus, the average volume of chicken meat produced every month in 2016, amounted to 377 thousand tons, by mid-2017, this figure exceeded 405 thousand tons by the end of the year, he accounted for 420 thousand tons.
Agree with her and the General Director of open company "Agriconsult" Andrey Golokhvastov. "Lower prices have brought an increase in the production of chicken meat due to the emergence of a large number of new and expansion of already operating in the market of enterprises, lower prices for feed and grain," he says.
According to the forecast of Russian poultry Union, in 2018, the production of poultry in Russia may increase by another 100 thousand tons (2%) and exceed 4.9 million tons in slaughter weight. "Already started projects invested with funds still to be finalised. Manufacturers are planning to enter in the network and for export," — said Kudryakova.
Experts draw attention to the fact that the growth of chicken meat production is seriously outstripping the growth of demand for these products. The popularity of chicken meat in the production of sausages (according to the Dean of the Institute of refrigeration and biotechnologies ITMO Alexander Ichevskogo, now in the sausage adds up to 40-50% of chicken meat) can not compensate for the slow growth of consumption of pure chicken meat in retail. According to forecasts of the Russian poultry Union, at the end of 2018 it will grow by only 0.6% to 33.7 kg/person.
With regard to the export of chicken meat, it is now extremely small — Russian the chicken into foreign markets are not allowed, including for non-compliance with veterinary requirements, notes Golokhvastov.
The crisis of overproduction
As a result, "chicken overproduction" effect on producers ' profitability, analysts say. "Prices are now formed in the market, for medium and small businesses is unacceptable — they may be below the economic cost of production," — said Kudryakova.
Share these concerns and manufacturers. A representative of one of the largest producers of chicken meat "Cherkizovo" (the brands "Petelinka" and "Chicken Kingdom") previously told RBC that effective enterprises poultry production will become unprofitable when the price of 75-80 rubles. per 1 kg including VAT (taking into account only the cost of production, commercial and logistic expenses). In last year's report noted that the current trend of lower prices for chicken meat may in the short term to affect the profitability of the manufacturer. On the basis of credit load and maintenance costs of the management company, the figure may be higher, adds a representative of "Cherkizovo".
"We see the process when medium and small factories are closed, and some large experience severe difficulties," adds the head of the Executive Committee of the National meat Association (NMA) Sergey Yushin. According to him, the poultry producers will be forced to adjust production and reduce losses, including due to changes in production volumes. According to the representative of Cherkizovo, from the point of view of small enterprises it is possible to speak about crisis of overproduction of chicken.
Andrei Golokhvastov is less pessimistic. According to him, the company will not reduce production, despite lower profitability, because they will hold their market share. "For producers, this situation does not look catastrophic, they previously worked with low profitability, and now interest rates on loans are below and to ensure stable operation of enterprises is becoming easier," he adds.
The revenue derived from wheat, low operating cost, huge value as a cultural predecessor and the growing interest of the market. All this is a weighty argument in favor of the inclusion of oats in the crop rotation.
Even if you think you know about such crops as oats, all the web – you'll be surprised! Learn about the benefits of incorporating oats in crop rotations and the importance for the recovery of the soils will gather information about its ruggedness, environmental and economic efficiency in the cultivation. A lot of material about its benefits in nutrition and human health.
The Internet can be, for example, to learn that thanks to the versatile properties of oats (vitamins, minerals, especially fibres and beta-glucan, regulating cholesterol and blood sugar and supporting the intestinal health) student circles of the University in würzburg appropriated this culture the title medicinal plants in 2017. All this taken together leads to the fact that our old friend appears to us in a whole new light. The demand for culture is growing in many regions cultivation of oats became highly profitable. It's time to get acquainted with Avena sativa a little closer.
The reason for the new oat boom was, of course, the growing interest in the product from the European consumer: the popularity of healthy lifestyle and changing food habits leading to increase in production capacity of the food industry. And not only in Europe. In Germany alone, since the change of millennia, the consumption of oats in food more than doubled. Until now the main producers of oats remained Russia, the EU, Canada, USA and Australia, total production in the quarter which is not available on the market product. In Canada alone removed 60% of the world crop of oats! Due to increasing demand increasing the production of culture, even in Europe. However it should be noted that currently 80% of farmed EU countries oats used for fodder, food – 20%.
The first signal notifying about change of trend, has been the British Ministry of agriculture that in the UK in the 2015/16 year for the first time at a grain processing plants processed more than half a million tons of oats. Of course, for a country known for its passion for oatmeal, it's not so unexpected news, but also in the United Kingdom the consumption is constantly growing.
Interest in culture is heated and high procurement prices. In the 2016 season in Germany the attractiveness of oats for cultivation compared to other crops has increased significantly. In light of the severe decline in grain prices in 2016 prices for feed oats almost reached the level of prices for feed wheat and significantly exceeded the price of feed barley. Meanwhile, prices for high-quality oats are comparable with the prices of wheat of high quality. Moreover, in the EU, regardless of the level of purchase prices for oats higher categories receive a state subsidy.
In conjunction with such advantages as high value as culture-predecessor, high efficiency nitrogen and the low intensity of cultivation technologies, the following information must intrigue the last doubters of the prospects of culture: Germany in the 2014/15 year imported almost 420 thousand tons of oats, mainly for cereal production. At prices 2017, this amount is estimated to be worth over 60 million euros. With such volumes of Germany remains the largest importer of oats in the world, at the level of self-sufficiency less than 80%.
All of the above for those farms, which is full of winter crop rotations, where it develops resistance to herbicides, where yields often fluctuate, and the purchase price is changeable, it forms a good species, in other words, the production of oats provides advantages both from an economic and agronomic points of view.
Benefits in agriculture
In the previous lines repeatedly mentioned agronomic benefits of growing oat. Let's summarize them: high value as a cultural precursor, the efficiency of nitrogen use, disease resistance, dense and deep rooting with a high degree of assimilation of nutrients.
Only to the confirmation of the values of the predecessor is called the set of arguments, which lead to the reduction of the phytopathological problems and financial expenditure:
▪ the needs of the oats as culture-predecessor small, i.e., it is an ideal precursor, for example, for wheat or corn;
▪ due to the fact that oats are good shades the soil surface and develops a strong root system, he leaves behind a well structured soil;
▪ wheat yield in oats significantly higher yields of wheat on wheat;
▪ oats reduces the risk of Contracting root rot, why win wheat and triticale;
▪ oats – culture spring, which has a positive effect on the weed control prevents the emergence of resistance to plant protection products, helps to reduce the intensity of technological operations.
For high yields of oats, especially on light soils, sowing dates are important: the lower the level of soil fertility, the more important it is to sow earlier – the end of March / beginning of April (dates are relevant for Germany. – Approx. ed.). As culture is a long-day oats for the active growth and development of roots requires a fairly long growing season. Decisive is the place of cultivation: oats are sensitive to drought. On soils with good moisture ensuring the culture is able to give consistently high yields and demonstrate a great samobrazovaniya. To grain filling was not as fast to cultivate suitable cool sections.
As for the place of oats in the rotation, the culture is unpretentious. Predecessors for it may be winter, and corn and tilled with the late harvesting periods. Because of susceptibility to stem nematode is not necessary to cultivate oats on oats or after spring barley. As already mentioned, the requirement for nitrogen the crop is small, however, on poor loamy soils are required to ensure trace elements (MP, Cu), especially at elevated pH values. From liming of soils under oats should be abandoned.
The economic attractiveness
Oats are interesting for cultivation not only from the agronomic point of view, but also economically. Production of oats is highly profitable. To meet the requirements of cultivation of fields rich with wheat, crop rotation can be diluted with oats with getting a good margin. Revenue, of course, can not compete with the revenue from the sales of high-quality wheat, but the cost of growing oats about 200 euros / ha lower.
Due to their ability to assimilate the nutrients in the oats to achieve superordinate 80 kg / ha is required no more than 70...90 kg / ha of nitrogen in mineral form.
Leave culture in soil low level of nitrates when considering the prospect becomes even more interesting. The basic elements of nutrition are digested too well and even carried over to the next in rotation culture.
Resistance of oats to disease and a good performance in the suppression of weeds also help to keep the costs of plant protection products in the calculations for the highest yields in most cases below 65 Euro / ha (figure). And that's what you should plan, so that timely treatment against aphids (avoid excessive planchette) and a friendly germination treatment with growth regulators.
A comparison of the ratio of the yields and prices of various crops is oats as a culture, is beneficial from an economic point of view. But due to the high value of oats as culture - predecessor of the efficiency of its cultivation without taking into account the direct costs and labor costs higher than in the cultivation of wheat on wheat and grain for fodder. However, it should be the goal: try to realize the harvest as forage is a premium quality or as a culture for processing at prices close to wheat prices. Decisive in this case, along with such factors as light color and excellent smell, the size, and will be performed by the grain that determine the quality of the good of the party (90% > 2 mm), mass of thousand grains exceeding 30 g and be sure the grain of more than 540 g / l.
Besides the above mentioned parameters for the milling of oats, the important parameters are the filminess of grain and the proportion neverlosehope grain. Recently more attention is paid to forms of hulless oats processing technology which is easier, since it eliminates the need to release the core from the flowering glumes (films).
But oat remains an important food for horses. For these purposes, good prospects for sales black oats. Green mass and CCM harvested from mowed oats in pure form or in mixtures represent an energy-rich food. And oats may be cultivated both basic and intermediate culture.
Well, in the end, the oats is the most important spring crop in farms operating according to the principles of organic farming. In Germany, almost 17% of the area under oats are processed according to the principles of organic farming. It is approximately 24.5 ha. organic oats are given preference in deciding on the supply of food. But also as feed additives such oats – an excellent component.
Oats in Russia
In the Russian Federation production of oats in recent years varied insignificantly: from 3.2 million tonnes in 2010 to 5.4 in 2017. the Phenomenal growth in yield, the last year has provided a record total for the whole group of grains, including the oats. The average yield on culture was 19.6 kg / ha and thus exceeded the average yield for the previous five years by 20%. The main regions of cultivation of oats in the country are the Ural Federal district (577 thousand tons in weight after processing), Central FD (790,3 thousand tonnes), the Volga FD (1 726,2 thousand tons) and Siberian FD (1 998,5 kt). The main supplier of oats for the domestic market – the Altai territory. The farms of the region in 2017 was received in net weight of more than 621 thousand tons of grain of oats.
Katherine Haan, agrarmanager, Germany, NSH http://nsh.ru
The results of the regional agro-industrial complex in 2017 were announced today at the enlarged meeting of the Council for the development of the industry, which was held by the Governor of Astrakhan region Alexander Zhilkin.
The head of the region thanked the farmers for their good work. At the end of last year the volume of gross output of agriculture exceeded 42 billion, and given the processing has reached 50 billion.
The fastest growing crop. Acreage in the Astrakhan region grew last year by 2.1 thousand hectares and amounted to over 78 thousand hectares Produced over 1.7 million tonnes of vegetables, melons and potatoes. Astrakhan tomatoes and watermelons are in constant demand outside the region, and the products of our canning companies has been consistently winning gold medals at the annual international exhibition "world Food Moscow".
Due to the commissioning of the second phase of OOO "APK"Astrakhan" three times — up to 240 thousand tons, increased the volumes of processing vegetables. The area under cereals increased compared to 2016 18.6 %, 33 % — the volume of harvested grain.
Astrakhan oblast is one of the successful regions in the country for commercial fisheries, said the Governor. In the past year grown 21 thousand tons of small fish, 580 tonnes of sturgeon meat and 10.5 tons of food caviar.
"This year the amount of state support of the agricultural sector will not be below the level of 2017," — said Alexander Zhilkin. Only the implementation of projects in different sectors of regional agriculture from the Federal budget it is planned to allocate 832 million. Introduced new types of grants: to support the production of seeds of melons, berries production, acquisition of pedigree cattle and the maintenance of cattle for meat, grants for the purchase of equipment for processing of fish. Just for 2018 includes 27 areas of state.
The growth of taxes in the regional budget compared to 2016 amounted to 9 %. The figure is insignificant if to compare the volumes of state subsidies for the development of agriculture, the head of the region.
"The level of state support this year will affect such indicators as the level of legal average salary and tax payments," warned farmers Alexander Zhilkin.The management of the press service and information administration of the Governor of the Astrakhan region
In Rostov will be implemented large-scale investment project on creation of an agro-industrial Park. Today a motion on the allocation of land for its construction was supported at the meeting of the working group of the coordinating Council on issues of urban planning, property and land relations of the Yaroslavl region.
– The implementation of this investment project will allow to create more than 750 jobs in Rostov and the Rostov municipal district, but also to ensure Yaroslavtsev quality of food, – said the Deputy Chairman of the Government of the region Roman Kolesov. – In addition, the Park will become a place of attraction of the personnel and organizations of the agricultural industry from all over Russia one of the priority sectors of the economy of the Yaroslavl region – agriculture.
As the Director of the Department of property and land relations Maxim Frolov, JSC "Corporation of development of the Yaroslavl region" has addressed with the petition for granting in rent without auction of land for implementing large-scale investment projects in the framework of the regional law No. 14-z.
– This investment project will be implemented within 10 years. It cost 650 million rubles, – said the head of the land Affairs of JSC "Corporation of development of the Yaroslavl region" Maxim Zakharov. – Currently, negotiations are underway about the possibility of placing on the territory of agro-industrial Park production of canned vegetables, processed cheese, growing vegetables and their processing, breeding of valuable fish species, freeze-dried berries and production of rabbit meat.
In 2017, the production volume of livestock and poultry for slaughter in agricultural organizations of the Russian Federation increased by 7% by 2016 (to 10.9 million tons), which favorably affected the work of processing enterprises.
Production of meat increased by 7.6% by 2016 (making of 7.34 million tonnes) and 6 times in comparison with 2000, when Russia was made only of 1.19 million tons.
Manufacture of sausage products has increased since 2.2 – fold to 2.3 million tons, meat products – almost 13 times (from 0.2 million tonnes in 2000 to 3.1 million tons); meat and meat-containing canned foods over the past year has produced 49% more than in 2000.
Over the last three years the import of meat and offal decreased by almost 40% - from 1.7 million tons to 1 million tons
The five of regions-leaders in producing meat from cattle, pork, lamb, goat meat, horse meat, etc., cooled or chilled, at the end of 2017 entered:
1. Belgorod oblast – 495,8 thousand tons.
2. Kursk oblast – 153,7 thousand tons.
3. Pskov oblast – 130,5 thousand tons.
4. Voronezh oblast – 108,4 thousand tons.
5. Smolensk oblast to 80.3 thousand tons.
TOP 5 regions-producers of meat and offal of poultry:
1. Belgorod oblast – 667,4 thousand tons.
2. Stavropol Krai – 328 thousand tons.
3. Chelyabinsk oblast – 273,6 thousand tons.
4. Leningrad oblast – 253 thousand tons.
5. Bryansk oblast – 208,7 thousand tons.
The leading regions among producers of raw materials for meat production in 2017 (livestock and poultry for slaughter in agricultural organizations) have become:
1. Belgorod oblast – 1.7 million tons.
2. Kursk oblast – 515,3 thousand tons.
3. Tambov oblast – 458,2 thousand tons.
4. Chelyabinsk oblast – 479,4 thousand tons.
5. Bryansk oblast – 378,5 thousand tons.
It is planned that it will be held in the second half of 2018.
The result of the first visit to the Italian Republic, the Penza delegation led by Ivan Belozertseva, perfect in 2017, was the establishment of contacts with potential business partners.
The region has already implemented two major projects involving Italian capital in the production of industrial equipment (Telema and "Penza plant of Thelema Gino") and construction (Simem and house-building factory "Betonim").
As part of the forthcoming business mission to Milan is expected to develop cooperation in the fields of garment production, as well as production of bicycles, furniture and furniture fittings.
The Ministry of industry, transport and innovation policy of the Penza region prepares passports of projects that can be implemented by creating in the region of the joint Italian-Russian production.
In 2017, the development Corporation of the Penza region was organized 2 exhibitions and fairs in China, 2 business events (SPIEF-2017, IV Russian-Chinese EXPO), 14 visits of foreign partners (China, USA, UAE, Italy, Germany, Czech Republic) and 5 business missions abroad (China, Germany).
The farmers gathered at the Congress of the peasant (farmer) farms of the Moscow region already in the 31 th time. Just recorded 6 thousands of KFKH actively work about 1 thousand farmers'. In the Moscow region farmers, like all small and medium businesses, provides support at all levels, because the region takes an active part in the implementation of the program import substitution in the food market. Significant production growth there has been in recent years in a number of areas, for example, in olericulture including for growing vegetables in greenhouses, dairy industry, cheese making.
Works effectively in the region to provide agricultural subsidies more than 180 farmers received grants the development of production. In the coming year it is planned to allocate the suburban KFKH more than 40 grants totaling in excess of 260 million rubles.
The price of egg has returned to the level of 2013
Due to the fall in the purchasing power of the egg and products of its processing in the past year has fallen, according to various estimates, from 14% to 20%. As a result domestic poultry have received less income for more than 19 billion rubles. However, despite lower margins and unfavorable forecasts about the price situation in the nearest future, the company plans to continue to increase the egg production in 2018.
By the end of 2017, the production of eggs of all bird species in the country has reached 44.5 billion, which, according to the Russian poultry Union, at 2.8 percent, or 1 billion units, more than was received in 2016. growth mainly came from the poultry enterprises of Leningrad, Yaroslavl, Tyumen, Belgorod region and other regions. The driver of increase of the industry, as before, is the industrial segment, says a leading expert Institute for agricultural market studies (ICARUS) Daniel Khotko. In General, the Federal and regional poultry farms have increased production volumes last year at 4-4,2% to approximately 36 billion units.
The formation of the food market in recent years is influenced by two main factors: the growth of production and decline in real incomes, which leads to a drop in product prices, the General Director of the Russian poultry Union Galina Bobyleva. The egg industry is no exception. "It is particularly serious the situation has worsened in the past year, she says. — The current average producer prices for January-December 14% below the corresponding period of 2016: 35,8 rbl./Dec. 41.7 RUB./Dec. respectively.» Thus, according to the calculations of the Russian poultry Union, the result of falling prices loss of profits of agricultural producers from the sale of eggs in 2017 amounted to more than 19 billion rubles.
After an active rise in prices for table egg for the last three or four years in the past year the industry has faced deflation, confirms Daniel Khotko. According to Rosstat, average prices have dipped by almost 7% in retail and 15% in the wholesale segment. On the one hand, this was due to the problem of oversupply of eggs, which were ahead of market demand. On the other, in the second half of 2017 breeders had the opportunity to lower the cost of production at the expense of cheapened grain and protein components (meal, oil cakes), which led to a further drawdown price to stimulate demand. Current prices for eggs in the retail segment actually correspond to the level of 2014, while the producer prices comparable to dynamics 2013. "Of course, the profitability of production of table eggs is also decreased and is estimated ICARUS in average, less than 5%, and for many small poultry farms this figure is dropped to zero level", — the expert adds.
To full self-sufficiency Russia has emerged, starting in 2016, said the CEO of the company "Volzhanin" (Yaroslavskaya oblast', one of the largest producers) Lyudmila Kosteva. In her view, the price situation now is influenced by four main factors: overproduction, increased volume of import from CIS countries (in particular Belarus and Kazakhstan), reducing the total consumption of eggs by the population and price wars networking for the buyer.
There is now a reduction in the cost of fodder in the whole country (about 70% of production costs), but the level of deflation far exceeds the resulting savings continues Kosteva. Therefore, despite all efforts to improve the production process, in the coming years the company is forced to focus on the generally accepted European levels of profitability in 3-5%, she said. "This indicator in Russia is changing from month to month and annual term values will be even a good indicator, since in recent years, often in the summer, the market situation forced to work with negative profitability," adds the Director.
Falling prices due to reduced buying activity, according to the CEO of the largest Russian poultry farm "sinyavinskaya" (Leningrad region) Arthur Choldenko. "The demand for egg remained at the level of 2016, but incomes do not allow to buy it more expensive than the prices that are now operating," he explains. Because of the deteriorating price situation, the big players are dumping and "cut" their investment program, adds the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the holding "Russian field" (Nizhny Novgorod region, consisting of egg poultry "Diveevo"), Vyacheslav Romanov. And small and medium-sized farms is once again on the brink of survival.
Do I need to grow?
Despite the decrease in profitability, some manufacturers continue to increase volumes of release of the egg. "Volzhanin" in the past year increased its production by 9%, and in 2018 it plans to grow by another 18%. "This is consistent with the strategic development of the company for the five years from 2015 to 2020, says Kosteva. We are constantly working on strengthening our competitive advantage through high level of investment activity, namely increasing production capacity, upgrading equipment to the highest European standards, expansion and upgrading of infrastructure facilities and introduction of traceability systems at all stages of production." With increasing power there is an economy of scale in the part of the fixed costs. But you need a clear understanding of what level you happen the negative effect of increasing production and reaching the maximum efficiency, says the head.
"Diveevo" also increases the release of eggs. In the past year by 4% to 190 million pieces, and in that after the commissioning of two new plants is expected to increase from 45 million units, says Romanov. "We are not afraid of an oversupplied market, because we produce products of premium segment, he said. — If the average price at which colleagues can be shipped in the network egg selected category is 3.3 rubles/piece, we get almost on the ruble more." Flagship products-poultry — white "Diveevskaya egg" high in protein and vitamin A, and quail egg. The bird on the plant watered from the Sarov sources, use of imported air conditioning equipment. The buyer is willing to pay for it, says Romanov. However, in the past year, retail prices even on the product premium not grow. "The profitability of the egg business compared to 2016 fell by a third," — he said.
However, despite all negative circumstances, the farm manages to stay effective. According to Romanov, a key factor in the success of a business is access to customers. "Networks are sometimes quite aggressive towards the farmers, so 90% of commercial eggs we sell through wholesalers in Moscow, where in a tough competition to face dozens of brands, he says. — The rest is sold through its own retail network of "Pavlovskaya chicken" — it's more than 200 stores in Nizhny Novgorod, Ryazan and Vladimir regions". Despite the fact that this factory is not the largest in the "Russian field", "Diveyevo" — the most effective enterprise of the holding, draws the attention of a top Manager.
At the poultry farm "sinyavinskaya" egg production last year remained at the level of 2016 to 1.3 billion units In 2018, to increase volume is also not planned. "Prerequisites for this in the market, the economy in the zeros: compared with 2016, in 2017 the price of egg fell by 17-18%, and in some positions even at 20%, — draws the attention of Choldenko. — However, to reduce production, despite the unfavorable conditions, we will not."
The same strategy holds the company "Enablerepo". Prices have fallen so much that production costs are not recouped, the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the company Yury Trusov. At the end of 2017, the egg cost 15% less than at the same time in 2016, not more than 41 rubles./Dec. "This level of prices does not allow to obtain a positive return, especially in small farms, — emphasizes it. — Probably, large enterprises and have some profit at the expense of the production volumes, but small and medium are not getting the income."
One way to improve the price situation and improve the profitability of the industry is the implementation of the surplus outside the country. The volume of world trade an egg in the shell in 2016 was estimated at $3.6 billion, egg products — at $900 million the Largest exporters of in-shell eggs are the Netherlands, USA, Turkey and Germany. Russia among them is not yet included, but imports of eggs by more than $200 million a year. However, the vast majority of this volume are hatching eggs for the poultry industry. Last year, the import of eggs in our country, according to the Russian poultry Union, decreased by 16.4% to around 800 million units At the same time, Russian supplies of edible eggs abroad grew by 95% and amounted to 436.6 million by 2020 It is planned to increase the exports by 1.5 times, says Bobylev.
"The export of eggs is a very promising direction", — said Daniel Khotko. But while the export is less than 1% of the total production. The key areas of supply remain Mongolia and Ukraine, but no serious progress in 2017 was achieved thanks to the development of such markets as Tajikistan (79 million units to 7 million units a year ago), Kazakhstan (22 million units to 12 million units) as well as the discovery of fundamentally new areas: Russia (48 million units) and Qatar (3 million units). For example, Ukraine, which produces nearly 16 billion eggs per year, exports of which nearly 1.8 billion, or 11% of the total volume, emphasizes the expert. "It is obvious that the removal will stabilize the price situation in the country and contribute to further development of the industry," he says.
"Volzhanin" last year supplied the egg and its processed products in the Customs Union countries. "The volumes are insignificant compared to our gross production — hundreds of thousands units, just in recent years, the need to explore other distribution channels was not, — says Lyudmila Kosteva. — However, production volumes are growing, our competitors are not standing still, so now we are interested in finding new markets for our products, and exports in this case is your potential."
Sees prospects in the export of eggs and Arthur Choldenko. "We are already exporting 15 to 18% of our products that, perhaps, allows us to be called the biggest exporters of the commodity egg in Russia", — he said. Now "sinyavinskaya" supplies its products to Gulf countries, but is constantly working on expanding the list of buyers. The export price of egg above Russian 10%, draws the attention of a top Manager.
Processing will help?
Another way to obtain additional income — processing development. The production of egg products in Russia, according to Rosstata, for 11 months of 2017 increased by 3.3% to 47.4 thousand tons "Is good, but not as much as I would like — emphasizes Daniel Khotko. — Processing of table eggs, on the one hand, is a high-tech direction, and therefore costly to implement, on the other — this segment is forced to compete with relatively cheap imported alternatives." Therefore, the development direction is not the fastest. Processing in Russia only a few large companies: "Roskar" Leningrad region, "Ruzova" in Mordovia, "Bohr" in the Tyumen region, "Agrofirma seymovskaya" in Nizhny Novgorod region and others. "To date, on major new projects announced in the direction of deep processing of eggs we do not know, but it's safe to assume that the current players in this market will continue to grow in this segment", — said the expert.
"Volzhanin" just in the last year increased processing volumes by 11%. Investments in this direction for three years amounted to 200 million rubles. "in Addition to increasing the share of processing, inherent to these investments is to improve the quality of manufactured products, — said Kosteva. We have shifted to the production of more functional products with desired properties, develop projects for the production of products of deep processing of eggs not only for food industry but also for medical, cosmetic industries".
Meanwhile, enterprises of confectionary, bakery, fat and oil sectors is mostly used in the production of imported products, draws the attention of a top Manager. Often this habit is dictated by the technologists who worked for years with specific producers, while in Russia has not produced a worthy product. Disadvantageous and pricing: imported egg products in order to reduce the cost of doing the salt and fillers. Thus, according to Lyudmila Bone, imported dry fermented egg yolk is from 218 to 372 rubles/kg, and domestic natural — from 400 to 450 rubles/kg, dry imported protein sell from 534 to 774 RUB./kg, Russian — from 750 to 950 RUB./kg. even now the production of eggs and the available capacity for their processing to the Russian poultry enterprises can fully meet the needs of food processing industries through domestic resources, Kosteva says.
"Volzhanin" also runs ongoing projects for the production of egg products for the mass market. But it is the prospect for the coming years. "To instill in the Russians a culture of consumption, for example, Heather will take about ten years" — believes a top-the Manager.
Profitability of production of value-added products and deep processing is even worse than in the segment of commercial eggs, underlines Arthur Choldenko. "The b2b market and value-added products is in a deplorable state,' he says. — If the population is unable to buy a simple egg, the more will buy it in a processed form". Therefore, these segments fall even more. For example, the price of the egg with added vitamins decreased by 20%, he knows.
The head of a company, which is engaged in processing eggs, confirms that the demand for egg production fell, and eventually his company running at a loss. "Nothing good on the market occurs, and the claim that the products of the future is nothing more than a marketing ploy, because if the purchasing power decreases, it is difficult to understand than the future," he pessimistic. In fact, the company is not going to increase production, and further decisions will depend on the demand and the potential buyers, which remains low. "We can't operate at a loss. Though the price of eggs fell and their products we also sell much cheaper, our margins compared with the year 2016 has decreased," — says the source.
According to the forecast of Russian poultry Union, based on the plans of poultry farms, egg production in current year will increase by another 500 million units to 45 billion, the growth Rate of the industry accelerated in 2014, focuses Daniel Khotko. "This is the result of successful implementation of investment programmes for many large enterprises as well as the development of the internal market hatching eggs," he explains. ICARUS expects that due to the maximum saturation of the market with 2018 growth in the sector will be faded out and can fall twice — to 1,5-2%.
In the conditions of surplus production factors, support industries, according to experts, can become diversification and export development. Both measures are long-term, in terms of implementation, but they will help to improve the financial situation of egg poultry farms. "Expansion of the range involves the production of eggs not only in the usual format hard packing on 10, 20 or 30 pieces, but also related products in liquid, dry, cooked, sliced — says Khotko. — Of course, it will take time for the development of the demand for such products, however, as we see in the markets of developed countries, the variety of the assortment can drive sales".
With regard to the removal, in 2017, was taken serious steps to enter export markets, it remains only to extend the list of buyers and sellers and volumes of supplies. Consumer demand in Russia is gradually recovering, and the intensification of export allows to hope that the price of an egg at least stop falling, he said. However, the fact that production will continue to grow, albeit inertia, will hinder their increase. "Although a small increase of 1-2% in 2018, we still can see the" — optimistic Khotko. Profitability, however, will remain at the minimum level, because the industry will continue to be influenced by tough competition and the effect of overproduction. As a result, the number of players may leave the market. To them primarily include small poultry farm of the old model, located in highly competitive regions.
Current prices for eggs can work with minimal profitability close to zero, said Arthur, Choldenko. This year both measures will remain at last year levels. Thus factors that would help to increase the profitability of the business, the top Manager does not see. "You can always work towards cost reduction by reducing the cost of feed, however, we have absorbed all the efforts of the transport logistics, which from next year is expensive, he says. — We have put tariffs on railway transportation, which is 20% higher than they were last year." Increased the cost of electricity — from 1 July 2017 to 13%.
"If the government announced a small inflation, do not expect anything good — says Romanov. Profit will not increase". In such circumstances, it is tougher to consider costs and increase productivity. Sees no prerequisites for positive developments and Yuri Trusov. "Production will go up when the market will be in deficit and this can only happen provided that the income of consumers will increase and they will buy more," he says. Policy egg business will continue to determine market leaders, and small factories hardly stand competition with them.
According to Vyacheslav Romanov from "Russian field", in 2017, to a certain extent supported by the low yield of wheat due to the record harvest. However, the cost of vitamins has soared 50-60%. "The curtain has deteriorated the situation with the supply of lysine, necessary for egg production: from the 22nd of December last year it was banned to buy in China, recalls a top Manager. And because China provided 85% of the Russian import of this amino acid! Not only that, she has risen, now it's just a place to buy."
Market leaders broiler optimize assets
In the meat poultry industry continues to consolidate. The largest manufacturer of the industry — "prioskolye" — decided to get rid of the Tambov enterprise. Purchase it intends closing the top 3 companies of gap "Resurs". If the transaction is closed, the latter will be able to significantly increase their share and become the second in terms of production.
At the end of last year to Tambov management FAS Russia received a petition for acquisition of 100% stake in the authorized capital of JSC "Inzhavinskaya poultry farm" from the farm "Belorechenskaya". Both companies belong to the largest players of the market of poultry meat "Prioskolie" and the gap "Resurs". At the time of writing the deal has not yet been completed. Representatives of the companies to comment on this topic "the Agroinvestor" refused.
The buyer and the seller
"The gap "Resurs" (founder and Chairman of the Board of Directors — Victor Nourusof) in the ranking of the largest producers of poultry meat of Russian poultry Union in 2016 was the third position with a volume of 343 thousand tons of broiler live weight and market share of 6%.
Production facilities of the group are concentrated in the South of the country — in the Rostov region, Stavropol Krai and Krasnodar Krai, Adygea and Karachay-Cherkessia. In addition, the company owns "Tokarevskaya poultry" in the Tambov region annual capacity of 150 thousand tons, which at the beginning of last year I was running after the upgrade. Revenue of the integrated poultry farm "Belorechenskaya", part of the holding company and submitted the petition on purchase "Inzhavinskaya", according to SPARK, in 2015 amounted to 3.8 billion rubles, and in 2016 — RUR 3.9 bn the company's Net profit, on the contrary, during this period fell from 422 million to 29.1 million RUB.
"Prioskolye" (controlled by the former Chairman of the government of the Belgorod region Gennady Bobritsky) is the market leader in meat poultry. In 2016, the company headed the top-10 largest companies with a market share of 11% (630 thousand tons in live weight). In 2017 the holding company has increased its production volumes by 3.5% to 651,6 thousand tons.
Group's main assets are located in Belgorod region. Also the company has a poultry complex in the Altai ("Altai broiler") and in the Tambov region — the same "Inzhavinskaya poultry farm". After modernization in 2011, the company has a production capacity of 120 thousand tons of poultry meat in live weight per year, allowing it to be the largest poultry complex in the region. It includes the incubator for 84 million eggs per year, eight sites fattening, Elevator, etc. In the rating of the analytical center "Evromedia" by revenue of the largest Russian poultry farms "Inzhavinskaya" took sixth place with 8.8 billion at the end of 2016. According kartoteka.ru the net profit of the company then amounted to 554 million rubles.
The cost of "Inzhavinskaya poultry farm" is estimated at 9 billion rubles, according to a leading expert Institute for agricultural market studies (ICARUS) Daniel Khotko. Analyst IFC Markets Dmitry Lukashov indicates a solid figure 10-15 billion rubles "Due to large production scale and modern technology it is very attractive to buyers," he said. Interesting and highly liquid assets calls of the company and President of the consulting company Agrifood Strategies albert Davleev.
It is worth noting that in the summer of 2017 prioskolye has sold two of its nucleus first order to the German subsidiary of the us company Cobb-Vantress. As reported by "Agroinvestor" source on the market, the holding is sold for more than one year, the asset in its entirety was offered to different buyers, but negotiations in what have not resulted. At the same time, "Resource", in contrast, pursues a strategy of increasing assets. So, last year, "Belorechenskaya" also agreed with the FAS acquisition poultry farms "homeland", "Timashevsk" and "Soviet" in the Krasnodar region.
The division of assets
Reason to sell Tambov company "Prioskolie" was. At the moment, according to the head of projects practice APK "neo Centre" Ekaterina Mikhaleva, in the Russian poultry market there is an overall surplus production, causing the wholesale price of broiler in recent years has decreased by 10-16%.
"Domestic production of poultry meat now accounts for more than 95% of the total consumption, therefore competition between manufacturers and allows you to grow the value of their products", — agrees the head of group on maintenance of the enterprises of agriculture division of Deloitte Rinat Khasanov. On the other hand, real incomes are reduced, which affects the purchasing power and also puts pressure on price. As a result, the poultry even in modern enterprises operating margin is now at a level of 7-15%, which is below the values observed during the period of rapid growth in this market, when the rate reached 25%. "Even the low cost of feed grains in the current season-2017/18, does not help the situation, as the increased cost of specialized vitamins that are added to food and, alas, still in considerable volumes are imported from abroad," adds Mikhalev. With these difficulties and faced "prioskolye", she believes. The holding company's revenue declined for the fourth year in a row, the expert said.
Profitability "Inzhavinskaya poultry farm", according to official reports, in the period 2014-2016 also dropped significantly, the net profit from 18% to 6%. And increased competition in the region after the launch of the upgraded "Tokarevskaya poultry" a "Resource" is likely to lead to even more negative consequences, predicts Mikhalev. Already by the end of 2018, the group intends to bring "Tokarevskaya" design capacity of 150 thousand tons per year. In addition, gradually increasing the volume of production in the region and a joint venture of Cherkizovo and Spanish Gruppo Fuertes — "the Tambov Turkey". "In the last two years in the Tambov region there was a significant increase in the production and sale of poultry, and the removal of the main venues at full capacity, the production volume in the near future may reach 340 million tons per year, which will significantly exceed the needs of the region and will increase inter-regional imports," — said the expert.
Buying an asset Resource logical, said Daniel Khotko. "The company familiar with the market of Tambov region 2014, when it was acquired "Tokarevskaya poultry", — he said. — Joining group "Inzhavinskaya" will allow "Resource" to become the second largest producer of poultry meat in Russia [after the "Cherkizovo" — "Agroinvestor"]". According to experts, earlier the company has declared a total production capacity of 500 thousand tons in 2017. And while such volumes the group is not reached, purchase a new asset will allow it to bypass the "prioskolye" in the near future.
The aggregate output of "Tokarev" and "Inzhavinskaya" poultry farms may be about 260 thousand tons of meat. Most likely, enterprises will focus on production for the domestic market and production site, located in the southern Federal district, also belonging to the "Resource" will be used for the production of poultry meat for export, says Mikhaleva. "Today almost all the countries of Central Asia already receive exports two Halal brands of gap "Resurs"", — knows Davleev. At the same time, according to him, the format of the production of poultry for export abroad, especially to the middle East, demands a small carcass — 1-1,2 kg, that in Russia very few applied. Thus, one company to produce products for export and for domestic consumption difficult. "Therefore, "Tokarevskaya" and "Inzhavinskaya" will allow the company to transfer poultry production to the domestic market of the Tambov assets, and South to concentrate on exports," he agrees with Mikhaleva.
As for the "Prioskolie", in the near future a priority for him, too, will yield in foreign markets, the expert believes "neo Center". Therefore, the sale of "Inzhavinskaya poultry farm" was required for more available funds, which are likely to be aimed at the conversion of the production facilities in Belgorod region the output for foreign markets.
Consolidation will continue
The market for meat poultry farming of Russia is far deconsolidated. The three largest companies is less than 30% of the market, draws attention Khasanov. At the same time, for example, in the US the top 3 leaders have more than 50% in the UK — over 80%. In this regard, in the next few years it is expected the consolidation of its assets in poultry and a corresponding recovery in the M&A market in the industry. "Consolidation is the General trend in the agricultural sector, adds Davleev. — Many of the projects originally developed with a view to subsequent sale." The new deal will lead to the consolidation of assets among the major players and will contribute to the increase in volumes exported abroad of poultry, I'm sure Ekaterina Mikhaleva. In 2018, the trends of mergers and acquisitions will continue, she predicts. "In the current market conditions the majority of small companies will go bankrupt, and large holdings will be able to buy them, but many major players adhere to the strategy of organic production growth," — said the expert.
Other market participants have long been eyeing the new assets and buy them, knows Daniel Khotko. So, in 2016, "Akashevskaya poultry farm" acquired "Agrokompleks them. N. Tkachev" and GK "Healthy farm" bought "Rusgrain holding". Attempts to acquire "Uralbroiler" and "Mikhailovsky broiler" was the group "Rusagro", but for various reasons did not take place. The company is now in search of suitable sites, the expert does not exclude.
According to Davleev other most likely targets for mergers and acquisitions in the current year can be assets held by troubled financial institutions. For example, such as "Uralbroiler" Bashkir broiler and egg businesses, whose owners (presumably) are "Rusgrain holding" and b & n, as well as "White Bird", owned by "PromSvyazCapital" (the structure of the PSB). In indacochea sector is not excluded the sale of the complex. M. Gafuri and maybe "Eurodon". A small regional poultry farms in relatively working order, may be an interesting major local and regional players under the extension. According to the General Director of group "Prodo" (ranked eighth in the ranking of the Russian poultry Union by 2016 with a market share of 4%) Peter Ilyukhin, the purchase of existing assets is a good way of development of the company. Of course, provided that the acquired asset is not revalued and is located in a strategically interesting to the buyer the region, he emphasizes. "The buyer immediately receives the current production, market share, established distribution (if we are talking about reaching out to new regions) — lists a top Manager. And "Resource" and "prioskolye" is among the largest producers of poultry meat in Russia. Any deal with their assets — a significant event in the market."
Now on the market broiler as instruments of competition to the fore a large volume, production efficiency, lower costs. And effective players producing large volumes of products, will be able to remain profitable even with lower margins, says Ilyukhin. However, any transaction in such market situation should be assessed with caution, because in the near future should not expect the same market growth, which was observed in recent years. According to a top Manager, "Prodo" also quite often receives offers to purchase or sell assets. "Some of these proposals are discussed, others can be initiated talks with different perspectives," he says.
The Chairman of the Board of Directors "Rusgrain holding" (ninth position in the ranking of the Russian poultry Union with a share of 2%), Alexei Verkhoturov sure that now is the time for the purchase of working assets. The market is formed, the construction of new facilities, obviously, leads to overproduction and a further reduction in prices, he explains. "Market consolidation is the natural way of growth businesses interesting for all players" — think a top Manager. The company while any expansion of its facilities or the acquisition of other assets not planning.
1.27 million tons of feed
made "prioskolye" in 2017. 75% of this volume was issued in the territory of the Belgorod region, about 16% — in the Tambov region, the rest — in the Altai territory.
With an eye to the capital?
According to Daniil Khotko of ICARUS with the purchase of another asset in the Tambov region "Resource" has already been "conquered" South and North Caucasus Federal district, will be actively represented in the Central part of Russia. Most likely, we can talk about strategy orientation, the largest consumer of the Moscow region, he said.
Milk beverages and cheese products will designate inch letters
Russia invaded a variety of dairy substitutes, in which simply no drop of milk: burning like plastic, yoghurt and cheese, milk mixed with chalk, etc. the Ministry of agriculture promises to solve this problem very soon: already in the summer will launch a special marking that will allow us to distinguish milk from a milk product, a cheese from the "cheese-like". However, such promises officials give. "To deal with surrogates authorities is simply not profitable – if you remove the shelves of counterfeit, it turns out that they are empty," said market participants. Even the Russians, whose incomes are reduced for the first year, simply can not afford high-quality dairy products, the expert continues.
Since July of this year dairy products containing vegetable fats, will be a special way marked. This promise yesterday gave the Minister of agriculture Alexander Tkachev at the Congress of the national Union of milk producers. "It would be normal inch letters that will be visible", – assured the Minister. Earlier, the head of the Ministry of agriculture clarified that "labeling will occupy 30% of the area of the label where is written that the dairy product contains vegetable fats, including palm oil".
The Minister noted that in order for the solution to work fully, it is necessary several times to increase the penalties for violations of technical regulations and rules on labelling. "Today, our legislation does not allow to involve adequate violators of the law. They get so little penalty that it does not affect the result," – said Tkachev.
As reported, the bill "About strengthening of administrative responsibility for violation of requirements of technical regulations applicable to food products" developed by the Ministry of agriculture, provides for increased penalties for violation of labeling of food products to 200-400 thousand RUB from current 100-300 rubles the Document also provides for increased administrative fines in half to two times. For enterprises that violate the regulations, provided for the suspension of company activities for up to 90 days, the confiscation of the goods and in case of repeated violation – equipment for the production of food products. The Ministry of agriculture is convinced: "the Cleansing market clear niche for bona fide manufacturers who will have the incentive to produce quality products."
However, officials are not the first time promises to deal with the dominance of "palm dairy products". So, in the summer of 2015, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said that the government is thinking about the limitations of the use of palm oil in Russia. In a discussion of limiting the sale of palm oil back in the spring of 2016. Then President Vladimir Putin instructed to study the issue of introduction of excise duty on palm oil. Also Cabinet of Ministers was instructed to take measures on bringing to consumers the information about the occurrence of "palm" in the composition of the products.
Special labeling of dairy products with vegetable fats promised for launch in 2017. But then the discussion has stalled (see "NG" from 19.05.17). Now authorities declare a new term and promised to start marking in the summer.
Many experts such a delay was associated with unwillingness of the authorities to remove from the shelves surrogates. "Remove the shelves of counterfeit, and you'll see what food we have," pointed out previously the Director of the state farm. Lenin Pavel Grudinin. The share of counterfeit products among the dairy products is difficult to assess, even approximately. So, according to the Association of processors on counteraction of falsification of dairy products, among the best of butter and cheese it reaches 90% (see "NG" from 21.12.17).
Today, according to the Ministry of agriculture, adulteration in the dairy market of around 3 million tonnes per year. In the Department emphasize that we are talking primarily about grey imports. "The main cause of all the ills of the dairy industry grey imports, adulteration, violation of technical regulations in the production, to reduce costs and costs. Neither more nor less – 3 million tons of milk comes in gray schemes, through Belarus, including Ukrainian cheese product" – said Alexander Tkachev silent about the fact, what is the volume of falsification of domestic products.
While the RF produces about 30 million tons of raw milk per year. The deficit is estimated at 8 million t in Addition to gray imports concerned officials and export prices within the Eurasian Union. So, for the last nine months in Belarus, the price of nonfat dry milk fell by 40% per kilo – up to 130 roubles In Russia, in its turn, prices decreased by only 10% to 177 rubles per kilogram. "As a consequence, production growth in the country and competition with imported cheap products lead to a glut in the market. Last year alone, Russia's reserves of milk powder and butter had doubled," says Tkachev.
The glut in the market, according to market experts, can become one of the major threats to the industry this year. "In 2017, the reserves of the main part of products in the dairy category increased. The volume of stored powdered milk for November 2017 has doubled compared to the same period last year, drinking milk – 19.9%, cheeses and cheese products – by 35.3%, butter – by 82.9%, cottage cheese – by 58.4 per cent. The only exception was milk products in the category "reserves", on the contrary, has decreased on 11%," – says in Soyuzmoloko.
However, commercial production of milk in Russia is growing, experts say. "According to Soyuzmoloko, in 2017 the production of milk in Russia grew by 2.8% against the index in 2016 and amounted to 21.2 million tons", – told in the Union. With similar assessments, and act in the Institute for agricultural market studies (ICARUS). According to them, all the growth went to the product inventory, which for the year increased by 800 thousand tons to 1.3 million tons in terms of raw milk. "Including storage sent half of the growth in butter production. And in the segment of milk powder, the situation is close to catastrophic: the increase in inventory in two and a half times higher than the rate of expansion of volumes of manufacture of the product", – said General Director ICARUS Dmitry Rylko. And unless urgent measures to stabilize the situation in the industry, she is from superdriver economic growth could turn into a very serious problem, he said.
The situation is complicated by low demand for dairy products – consumption in the context of declining incomes of Russians is not growing. Thus, according to Soyuzmoloko, the consumption of milk and dairy products by the end of 2017 will be reduced by 2% from-for low indicators on the cheese and weak performance on other types of goods categories. "Milk consumption sags due to a continuous reduction in real incomes. In 2017, a decline of 1.7%," – believe the lobbyists of the dairy market.
And if you do not solve the issue of growth stocks due to falling demand for finished dairy products, then it is possible the negative dynamics of prices for raw milk in the coming months, I'm sure manufacturers.
Meanwhile, the main problem of the domestic dairy market experts consider too high prices for the products. "From January 2013 to December 2017 the price of one litre of whole UHT milk increased from 46 to 74 rubles", – says the chief researcher of the Center for agrifood policy presidential Academy (Ranepa) Vasily Uzun, Recalling that this period saw the decline of incomes. "Accordingly, the decreased consumption of milk and dairy products per capita (from 248 kg in 2013 to 236 in 2016)," he says, stressing that the glut in the market occurred because of its cost. "Cheap imported products do not lie. The demand for it exceeds supply and the poor would rejoice in the growth of imports of such products," – the expert specifies.
Labelling will not solve the problems in the dairy market, says expert group Veta Dmitry Zharskiy. "In fact, their application is not able to influence key reasons for the growth of counterfeiting, rooting the practice of using vegetable fat and re-exports, which involved neighboring countries," he said. In addition, the analyst continues, over the past three years in most areas of food production managed the import substitute, but milk such a situation did not happen. "In 2103 by the end of 2017 the volume of milk production in the country (with the exception of the proposal for small farmers) grew only from 18.9 to 21.2 million tonnes. Roughly speaking, the main reason for the rising cost of milk and dairy products is that the sentence after the imposition of import restrictions was reduced multiples, but for 3 years has not risen by a quarter," he says. Obviously, whole milk and quality of milk the majority of Russians simply can not afford, summarizes Zharsky.
"Marking is the basic identifier that will allow accessible language to inform consumers about the content of vegetable fats in dairy products. Therefore, its introduction is only part of the work to be undertaken in the fight against counterfeiting," – said gendirektor Five Consulting Petrova Marina Petrova, believing that to combat counterfeit fold increase in production volumes of raw milk, normalize terminology, and only after that to tighten penalties.
Deputy Minister of agriculture of the Russian Federation Evgeny Gromyko during the conference "Where the margin"-2018 noted the potential for development of organic production in Russia, according to The DairyNews.
"We have a serious potential for organic products, we have 25 million hectares of land, which for many years have not seen fertilizers and 12 million ha are generally not mastered. In this capacity we can become a major supplier of organic products in the world," said Gromyko.
Prospects of all agricultural markets are discussed in detail on the 9-th International Conference for agricultural producers and suppliers of inputs and services for agricultural sector WHERE THE MARGIN 2018. The conference was held The Institute for agricultural market studies with the support of the Association of industrial unions agro-food complex of Russia and the Union of sugar producers of Russia, on 1-2 February 2018 in Moscow http://ikar.ru/gdemarzha/
Cm. the results from ICARUS. Agrarian markets: results and prospects 2017-2018
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18 April 2018 in Moscow, in hotel "holiday Inn Lesnaya" will be the Congress and exhibition "Biomass: fuel and energy» – specialized event dedicated to the manufacture and use of car and boiler biofuels from renewable raw materials: ethanol, butanol, biodiesel, pellets and briquettes. Additionally, on 19 April will be held the seminar "Sportexpert" technology and ensure the smooth operation of alcohol production.
Organizer – the Russian Biofuel Association (RBA). Congress participants will be producers and traders of grain, sugar companies, logging operators and processors of wood, pulp and paper mills, refineries, utilities, and gas station networks, entrepreneurs, banks, venture capital companies, investment funds, engineering companies, equipment manufacturers, representatives of regional and Federal authorities, journalists, environmentalists, scientists – all who are interested in fuels from renewable raw materials.
The main goal of the Congress "Biomass: fuel and energy - 2018" – to discuss the production and use of liquid and solid (engine and boiler) biofuels.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in 2017, the year that "...biotechnology is one of the key areas of development in the near future, along with digital technology with artificial intelligence. I very much hope that professionals working in this field, fully implement the tasks that they face. We will do all we can to help them...".
According to the President of the Russian Biofuel Association Alexey Ablaev: "As approved at the highest level the Program of biotechnology development in Russia import substitution program will make the development of markets for biotechnology and biofuels a locomotive, able to give the country momentum for further growth, based on diversification of the economy. Congress and exhibition "Biomass: fuel and energy" is a meeting place where industry experts will discuss business development in the biofuel market given a favorable political situation".
The event will host the exhibition, leading experts will share experiences and speak on various topics, including:
We invite You to take part in the work of the Congress "Biomass: fuel and energy - 2018" !
Russian producers during the first 11 months of last year exported 18.5 thousand tons of ice-cream, 1.6 thousand tons more than for the whole of 2016. In monetary terms, exports rose by 28.8% to 46.8 million dollars. The production for the year is likely to fall from 407,1 thousand tons in 2016 to 390 thousand tonnes in 2017. Market experts said Milknews about how was the 2017-th year, and shared his predictions for the new season.
Cold summer of 2017
Production volumes of ice cream and frozen desserts in Russia grew in the last five years, there was a peak in 2016. Total production by the end of 2017 will fall slightly: 407,1 thousand tons in 2016 to 390 thousand tons in 2017. Companies have had to slow down: failed rainy summer in Central Russia.
According to the Union of ice cream producers, the share of imports is negligible and is less than 3% of the total range. "It is connected with full self-sufficiency of Russia at the expense of domestic production, and import prices are significantly higher, not everyone can afford", - said the General Director of the Union Gennady Yashin. It is possible that in 2018, the statistics will be different, because Valio announced the resumption of production of ice cream and plans to return to the Russian market in March.
Complicated 2017 made ice-cream to look for new markets and marketing courses to get your permanent customer. According to General Director of the Union of ice cream producers of Russia Gennady Yashin, increasing competition has led manufacturers need to constantly surprise consumers with new flavors: black ice cream with the taste of lobster, taste of cheese. But it is definitely not a mass segment in our country is still the most popular type of ice cream remains a good old waffle Cup – it is chosen by 30% of buyers.
General Director of "Kupinsky ice cream" (TM Kupino) Alex Rudensky told that the ice cream market for the last two years actually observed the activity in the low price segment - its share 54% of total consumption. The proportion of the average price of the group decreased from 45% to 36%, the premium ice cream and did choose only 5% of buyers. According to experts, such changes are associated with a decrease in purchasing power.
The head of the company believes that even in times of economic recession, the priority should be high quality and product safety. "To produce cheaper and high-demand product in order to keep production of this problem we do not put - says Rudensky. On the contrary, we focused on the management of internal costs in the production and management company. The result: we reduced the production volume by 10%, but finished the year with a good profit."
Experts unanimously say that the purchase price of raw materials (cream, milk) was acceptable, without speculative increased in contrast to the 2016 season.
After China - in Asia and Europe
In spite of the inner transformation of the market and the decline in production, the Russian ice cream gaining more popularity abroad. According to the Russian export centre, the largest trading partners of Russia in 2017 were Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mongolia, China, Germany and Belarus. Russian ice-cream also tasted in Thailand, Senegal, Vietnam, Austria and Italy. In addition just over a year in 2 times increased the volume of exports in USA and 9 in Germany.
Russian companies continue to actively cooperate with China. At the end of last year, the brand "33 pingvina" opened its representative office.
"Access to the China market was difficult, the project took more than one month. Several business missions, market research among customers and among entrepreneurs, then search for the most optimal logistic solutions and as a result, the opening of a representative office in Shanghai, says the leading brand marketer Cyril Stepyko. - The business model of the franchise, "33 pingvina" implies a direct interest of the parent company in the success of the partner, as there are no royalties and other fixed payments. This transparent model ensures mutual motivation and allows to represent our trademark not only in Russia but also in other States. This year we plan to go with their products to European markets".
Alex Rudensky also notes an increased interest of Chinese partners in the Russian ice cream: last year, China sent 80% more ice-cream TM "Kupino", than in 2016. In this market, but also in Vietnam operates another Russian manufacturer - korenovskii ICC with the brand "from Cow Korenovki".
New items come to the rescue
Member of the Guild of marketers Elena Ponomareva said that the Russian ice cream market will be actively developed, but it is not accompanied by a significant increase in sales will occur qualitative changes related to the allocation and development of new market segments.
As new trends, according to the expert eco-friendly ice cream, ice cream sports. The increase in the birth rate leads to increased attention of manufacturers to child target audience. For example, the launch of ice cream "Minions" to release the animated film "Despicable me 3".
Conclusions Ponomareva agree and the producers themselves. For example, TM Kupino has issued a number of winter new products to support the range and the brand "33 pingvina" in terms of increased competition released for the year at least ten new products.
"In 2016, we have launched under the brand name ORGANICbar. It includes varieties of ice cream with low fat, SuperFood products, sports varieties with prebiotics, and lactose-free ice cream based on rice, coconut, cedar milk, - says a leading marketer of brand "33 pingvina" (LLC "Esta", Tomsk oblast) Cyril Stepyko. In 2017, compared to 2016, we have produced almost 1.5 times more products ORGANICbar, and this suggests that in our country there are new markets and have to move, to evolve."
Up to 15% of sunflower crops remained unharvested in the winter
According to the agriculture Ministry, in the first 11 months of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016, the production of vegetable oil increased 10.1%, to 5.1 million tons, more than 500 thousand tonnes higher than a year earlier. Gross sunflower harvest last year was 9.6 million tonnes, said approvedate.
According to a leading expert Institute for agricultural market studies (ICARUS) Daniel Khotko, the final harvest is the main oilseed crop at the end of 2017 was higher than reported by official bodies. "Underestimated the volume of sunflower harvest in Siberia and some regions of the Volga region, which was actively removed the field in the second half of December, — he explained, "the Agroinvestor". Thus, it can be argued that the real harvest at the end of last year could be about 9.9 million tons." In addition, at the beginning of 2018 uncleared remained about 10-15% of crops agriculture primarily in the Volga Federal district (Saratov, Penza, Ulyanovsk regions) and in the Volgograd region, the expert adds. Like last season, this cleaning work will continue in winter and spring of the current year, therefore the final yield of sunflower may be 10,3−10,4 million tonnes in standard weight (in 2016 and 11.7 million tons).
Despite a marked reduction in the fee, the failure on the production of sunflower oil has not happened yet. In the first three months of season-2017/18, the volume decreased by only 1%. At the same time, the second half of the current agricultural year is unlikely to emerge for processors positive. Assessment of oil and fat Union, if the first and second quarter production of oil will not show negative dynamics, the third quarter of 2018, the fall is inevitable — simply over raw materials. The expected reduction in the availability of plants of sunflower have a negative impact on the production performance of the industry confirms Daniel Khotko. Overall this season, the Russian refiners can produce no more than 4.25 mln tons of oil that will be 8% lower than the same level of the last agricultural year. "Reducing the volume of raw materials will lead to the fact that mills will run the full season (in 2016/17), and the average until June, — the expert predicts. — In addition, for small businesses pressing like early stopping will be particularly relevant." In the second half of the agricultural year will decrease and the rate of export of sunflower oil, which will lead to a reduction in the total volume of deliveries abroad. Forecast ICARUS — 1,92 mln t vs 2.17 million tonnes a year earlier.
According to the agriculture Ministry, the main production of vegetable oil is concentrated in the southern Federal district, its share in the total volume of production is about 30% (to 1.55 million tons in the first 11 months of 2017). In the Central Federal district during this period, produced 1.46 million tonnes (28%), in the Volga region of 1.3 million tonnes (about 25% of the total). The growth of production of oil products due to an increase in the efficiency of enterprises, modernization of production capacities and introduction of new species, according to analysts of the Ministry of agriculture. In particular, in 2017 put into operation a new enterprise for the production of vegetable oils: in the Volgograd region has earned crushing plant "Cargill Novoanninsky" (the processing capacity of 640 thousand tons of sunflower seeds per year). In the Amur region commissioned the first phase of extraction plant "Amur" on production of soybean oil (240 thousand tons of soybeans per year).
Read more about the situation on the fat-and-oil and other agricultural markets analysts ICARUS other industry experts and top managers of large agricultural holdings will tell the conference «Where the margin 2018"that will be held on 1-2 Feb.