As a result of the record crop to lower prices
This year, Russia is projected to harvest a record oilseeds, declared the Ministry of agriculture, based on the data of regional bodies of management of agroindustrial complex. First of all we are talking about sunflower, rape, mustard, soybean and oilseed flax.
"The area under oilseeds increased by 1.3 million hectares, for the first time in Russian history, amounting to 13.9 million hectares. The most significantly increased the area under rapeseed - 1.5 times and mustard - 2.2 times. Sunflower was sown on a record 8.1 million hectares", - told "RG" in the Department.
However, it is too early to expect that these records will lead to lower consumer prices, at least in sunflower oil, experts said. All of these culture is not the first year are export oriented. "About half of all products derived from soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, and flax at all to 85 per cent, goes abroad, - told "RG" the leading expert of the market of oilseeds of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Daniel Khotko. - Of course, the record harvest will affect the situation in the industry, but pricing in the segment of vegetable oils, for example, sunflower seed depends on many factors. And the harvest is not the main".
"The price of oil affect, for example, the amount of processing, the situation on the world market", - told "RG" Executive Director of the Union of milk producers (Soyuzmoloko) Artem Belov. In the wholesale and retail value of products pressure world prices for raw materials. Given the fact that Russia is the second largest producer of sunflower in the world - gets a record harvest, has this affected the world market, prices fell, said IKAR.The area under oilseeds increased by 1.3 million hectares, for the first time in Russian history, amounting to 13.9 million hectares
Now they are the lowest level in the last ten years. But seriously increased the dollar. Therefore, in the ruble equivalent of the prices for oil are at the level of last year. "If you "stretch" the layout to the retail segment, the fluctuations are almost invisible, consumers can't feel them," said Daniel Khotko. Moreover, raw materials obtained from such crops as soybeans or oilseed flax, practically does not reach consumers.
Even the use of raw materials in the processing industry, in confectionery, meat or dairy industries - while, unfortunately, will not affect the displacement of imported ingredients. For example, vegetable oils derived from sunflower oil of its own, is unlikely to move the imported palm.
85 percent of locally-grown flax is exported
All products from oilseeds is one of the key articles in the structure of Russian food exports, said Artem Belov. "It is estimated at around two billion dollars a year. Under this task the producers are planning a significant expansion of acreage. The fact that this year's expected record harvest, a good sign for the economy agriculture. This means that the market is developing," said Artyom Belov.
Moscow, October 25. – State Secretary – Deputy Minister of industry and trade of the Russian Federation Viktor Evtukhov took part in the plenary session in the framework of the VI Forum "Composites without borders".
The main theme of the forum was the prospects of development and application of composites and products from them in various industries.
Production of polymer composite materials today largely determines the level of national technological base. This material is widely used in aviation and space, automotive and construction, energy, shipbuilding and other key industries, - said Deputy head of the Ministry of industry and trade. -Moreover, the market is growing rapidly and is increasing annually. The global market for carbon fiber is 80 thousand tons, by 2025 its expected doubling to 161 thousand tonnes due to the increase in demand in the key industrial segments
Forum participants assessed the development of the composites industry,discussed the issues of future markets and trends before opening the composite industry in the current environment of Russian and global economic, industrial and technological agenda.
Technological leadership in a global world requires maximum mobilization of resources and rapid response to quickly changing conditions and needs of the economy. The development of the composite industry is important for economy and safety of the country, and the state, in turn, forms the industrial policy and regulations aimed at creating favorable conditions for its development
- said Victor Evtukhov.
The event was also attended by the General Director of the company Umatex Group Alexander Tyunin, General, directorio "AeroComposite" Anatoly Gydanski, rector of MAI Mikhail Pogosyan, Director General of ORPE "Technologiya" Andrey Silkin, Vice President, Hexagon Frank Haberli, Director of the Department of metallurgy and materials of industry and trade of Russia Pavel Servatinskiy, Deputy Director for General Affairs INSTITUTION "national research center "Kurchatov Institute" Alexei Altynbaev, General Director of JSC "development Corporation of Ulyanovsk region" Sergey Vasin.
In the framework of the saturated business program of the forum was the presentation of awards "Composites without borders. Awards".
The Ministry of agriculture and trade of the Arkhangelsk region jointly with the administration of the municipal formation "Severodvinsk" and GAPO JSC "College of construction, design and technologies" on 15 and 16 November 2018 will hold the XII regional Forum.
Regional trade the Forum is a major annual business event at which meet the Federal authorities, representatives of the business community, public organizations, ministries and departments, deputies, and experts from regions of the Russian Federation. The event is an effective tool to support initiatives of regional business, public and government agencies.
The purpose of the Forum: to consolidate the work of the state structures and business representatives in the task of improving the business climate, innovation potential, attracting investments in the Arkhangelsk oblast, the development of inter-regional sectoral integration. To summarize the existing experience of consumer market of the Arkhangelsk region in the sphere of trade, public catering, to explore new opportunities and technologies business.
The target audience of the Forum: business entities operating in sphere of the consumer market, representatives of educational organizations, public organizations, ministries and departments, deputies, and experts from regions of the Russian Federation.
15 NOV venue: municipal formation "Severodvinsk" Arkhangelsk oblast, Severodvinsk, ul. Boychuk, D. 2, big hall.
16 NOV venue: HAPO JSC "College of construction, design and technology", Severodvinsk, Belomorskaya str., D. 8.To see the agenda and register on the sitehttp://arhtorg2018.mya5.ru/
In Russia introduced the national system of professional qualifications -the most important and one of the most ambitious projects of our time, affecting the interests of each citizen.
National qualifications framework is a new concept for many: for employers and employees, trade Union organizations and organs of Executive power.
Not so long ago came into force the Federal law №238-FZ "About the independent skills assessment" designed to assess the quality of training required by employers. Now in the sphere of activities developed SPKR 35 professional standards, to develop the infrastructure of the Centres of competency (CSC), in which specialists of financial markets are subject to independent assessment of qualification.
Date of event – November 2, 2018, beginning at 9.00 and ends 13.00
Address of the event – Arkhangelsk, Naberezhnaya SEV. Dvina 88/1, Hotel PUR-Navolok, large conference room (2nd floor).
Applications for participation are accepted by phone: (8182) 655-104 or +7 921-474-72-00
The organizers – the Association for the development of professional qualifications and competencies of the North-West (Association of RPKK North-West), LLC", rcpi Consultant Plus Arkhangelsk", the Council for professional qualifications of the financial market (SPCP) with the participation of the National Agency for qualifications development (NARK).
The speakers of the conference are the members of the National Agency of qualification development and the Council for professional qualifications of the financial market, the representatives of the Association for the development of professional qualifications and competencies of the North-West, representatives of Executive authorities of the Arkhangelsk region and business.
At the conference Malicki Tatiana Nikolaevna - head of the Center for the evaluation of the qualifications of the CPI Consultant+ASKON" will speak on "Professional standards and their application. The benefits and complexity of the application Independent assessment of skills by employers". Murdered Tatiana Alexandrovna – head of the center of competency "Center of it Konsultant PLYUS Arkhangelsk" will tell about development of system of independent assessment of qualification in the Arkhangelsk and Arkhangelsk region, announces the opening of a Centre of competency for financial market professionals in our region.During the discussion employers may ask questions about the implementation of the National system of professional qualifications and get answers "from the horse's mouth".
Analysts "TECHART" was developed by the marketing strategy of the enterprise for production of mineral fertilizers, with the aim of entering the new markets that will ensure a sustainable position in the market. A key area of development has been designated to increase the volume of sales of products in foreign markets by gaining share from competitors.
In 2018, the Russian Government approved a roadmap for the development of mineral fertilizer production by 2025. According to the document, companies-producers of mineral fertilizers are more than 30 investment projects on creation of new and expansion of existing production up to 2030.
A key feature of the development of the domestic market of mineral fertilizers is the low level of domestic demand for fertilizers (more than 70% manufactured at the Russian factories of mineral fertilizers is exported).
The project was designed , the export potential of products, the possibility of expanding markets, analysis of market indicators focus on market in Russia and the target marketing regions formed marketing strategy of enterprise development.
Detailed description of the work "Marketing strategy of the enterprise for production of mineral fertilizers"
Marketing Analytics on the topic "Food industry, agriculture"
"MegaFon", Mail.Ru Group, oneFactor, Tinkoff Bank, "Yandex" and "Sberbank" establish an Association of market participants of big data. President of the organization elected Anna Serebryakova, chief operating officer of MegaFon. The main objective of the Association is to create conditions for the development of products and technologies in the field of big data in Russia. The market volume of big data over 5 years can reach 500-800 billion rubles.
Members of the Association will create a set of common principles and standards for the processing, storage, transmission and use of big data. The joint development will form the basis of policy for dealing with big data every company-member of the Association. The priorities of the organization — development of business-oriented development strategies of big data market, improving technical and operational efficiency of interaction of participants of the industry, as well as the formation of the code of ethics to protect the interests of users.
The Board of the Association includes representatives of all the companies-founders.
"Participants of the big data market will see an acute need in establishing a flexible and transparent rules for business development. We have created a self-regulating organization that will be based on the General principles of the inviolability of private life, secrecy of personal information, anonymity and control over the use of personalized data. Creating a safe environment big data will help shape new markets and innovative products. According to our estimates, the overall economic effect and revenue growth of all industries through the use and processing of big data in the medium term (5 years) can reach 0.5-1.5% of GDP, — commented Anna Serebryakova, chief operating officer of MegaFon, President of the Association of big data. — The organization is open to accept new members. So, one of the first the Association intends to join Gazprombank. Rostelecom is also considering the issue of membership in the Association."
"Our participation in the Association of big data is an opportunity to develop common standards and approaches to working with big data to contribute to the growth of this market, its qualitative development. We like some of the big data pioneers have been seeing the need for deeper and more effective cooperation of Telecom companies and players in the financial sector and other industries. I hope that the work of the Association will benefit high-tech and manufacturing sectors of the economy, will strengthen the leading positions of Russia in the technological sphere on the international market", — said General Director of oneFactor Roman Postnikov.
"We have consistently opposed any collection and use of data by commercial entities without the user's consent and we believe that the Association should become a platform for the formation of uniform and transparent rules of cooperation", — said Boris Dobrodeyev, General Director Mail.Ru Group in Russia.
"We believe that the Association can become an expert platform, where the joint efforts of business and government will be able to develop common principles for working with big data. Our primary goal is to develop industry guidelines and standards that will help you to understand the concepts, what is considered big data and what is not. Our experience is not inferior to the world, Russian technology companies can work together effectively and efficiently to resolve all issues on this topic. Together we can develop a common code of ethics for companies working with big data," — said Igor Alekseev, Deputy Director, corporate relations and working with government agencies, the company "Yandex".
"The Association of big data creates very timely since it will enable all key market players and industry experts to sit at the same negotiating table and to develop common standards of cooperation in relation to big data, including with state participation. At Tinkoff Bank in this field gained a great expertise that we are happy to share with the market and the regulator to worked out with the participation of the Association of the decision stimulated further development of the economy", — commented Valery Pavlyukova, Director of legal Department, Deputy Chairman of the Board Tinkoff Bank.
The increase in bread prices, Russian producers is not critical for the consumer announced in a live radio station "Echo of Moscow" the Deputy Director of the Institute for agricultural market Irina Glazunov.
"The bread is expensive, but not as much as someone trying to present. I can't say that there was some terrible situation in the market. It grows slightly larger than in previous months, but it's not critical," she said. Glazunov noted that the Russians turn over the price of bread in the FAS, because the bread is one of the main consumer products, and citizens are extremely sensitive to changes in its value.
According to I. Glazunov, in this situation, grain producers will follow the path of maximum preservation of the prices for "social" varieties of bread and increasing the cost of bakery confectionery. She stressed that the reduction of production of bread is expected.
According to "Kommersant" with reference to the Krasnoyarsk enterprise "Archlib" and "Dikhleb", Russian producers are in negotiations with trading networks about the increase in selling price of bread by 8-12%.
The production of agricultural products for the first nine months of this year decreased by 3.3 percent compared to the same period last year, Rosstat said. In result, food prices may rise slightly faster than inflation, experts say.
Most reduced indicators of grain yield. Mid-October produced a total of 101 million tons of grain. This is almost 20 percent less than last year. Sugar beet is also collected less by almost 13 percent. Potato production fell by almost one percent, and vegetables - by 3.8 percent.
Seems to be good is the situation in animal husbandry. Meat of farm animals and poultry in live weight produced 3.3 per cent more. That's just the number of cattle in farms at the end of September fell by almost one percent, and poultry by 1.6%.
The production of grain, sugar beets, other vegetables, and potatoes declined because of the weather. In addition, grain, sugar, vegetable oil are exported. On the foreign markets prices are rising, so they can jump inside the country. "The industry is influenced by a variety of factors, trade constantly adapts to the market," explained "the Russian newspaper" the analyst of the agrarian market, doctor of economic Sciences Leonid Kholod.
The cost of food also affects the situation in the country. For example, against the background of record crops of 2016 and 2017 the price of buckwheat in the country has decreased significantly. But selling crap on the new value, the producers were not ready and reduced plantings. As a result, this year buckwheat collect less, so next year's prices for cereals could grow, says Deputy General Director of the Institute for agricultural market Irina Glazunov.
It is also possible increase in prices for wheat. This grain since the beginning of year have risen in price by 40 percent. But the cost of rice for Russian consumers will depend on the new crop and the world market situation, the expert adds.
Possible growth of prices for meat products. "The cost of production of poultry meat has grown lately for 10-12 percent. Probably will be a compensatory increase in prices due to price hike of fodder," - said Vice-President of the International programme for the development of poultry (UIPDP) albert Davleev. But the rising cost of chicken in retail will curb the trade network, in order not to lose customers. So in the end prices may rise by 4-5 percent, the expert adds.
"There's a General background inflation and cost inflation. It forces manufacturers and retailers to constantly strive to improve product prices. But the limitation is the effective demand of the population", - said Leonid Kholod. In the end, farming is rebuilt.
The market goes unprofitable agricultural enterprises, but the remaining increase intensity of production, increased weight gain and milk yield
The market goes unprofitable businesses. "Over the past year and a half closed a lot of small farms, especially in those regions where there is no feed. To deliver the feed becomes very expensive", - cites the example of albert Davleev. But the remaining large enterprises increased weight gain and milk production, that is, work more efficiently, he adds.
Yet there is considerable potential for increasing consumption of food, said Leonid Kholod. Production will grow with increasing incomes. And to curb rising food prices in the country, you need to build more vegetable stores, convenient transport routes, and processing plants of agricultural products.
The slowdown in production has led to the imbalance of supply and demand
At the end of September wholesale prices for broiler meat in Russia reached a maximum value in the history of observations. As reported by the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR), in August there was a slight decline in prices and stabilization after high values, which were formed on the market in mid-summer. However, during September the carcass of broiler chicken in a large wholesale level rose by 8.5% to a record 123-128 RUB/kg. the Value of breast fillets rose to average 230-240 RUB/kg, the wing — 70-75 RUB/kg, ham — 115-120 rubles/kg.
"In early October, the price growth continues", — said the "Agroinvestor" expert of IKAR Anna Kudryakova. According to her, this is due to the continuing shortage in the market, including carcass and breast fillets. "The current level of supply and low volume of residues allows manufacturers to keep prices at this level," said Kudryakova. In September, the number of poultry farms in September produced a carcass with a small weight, up to 1.2 kg. In the middle of last month such proposals had enough points Kudryakova. "Perhaps this is due to a change in the composition of the feed, increasing grain prices, as well as hot summer, during which the bird is worse than gaining weight," she suggested.
According to Rosstat, in August, the poultry production in Russian agricultural enterprises decreased by 2% compared to the same value last year to 489 thousand tons. "last year in this period continued to increase. In the same year recorded a decline in March and in July and August," — said Kudryakova. At the same time in the first eight months of the current year remains positive dynamics at the level of 1.8%.
The reduction in the rate of increased production and rising prices — the result of the efforts to stabilise the market by the manufacturers, in turn, noted the President of Agrifood Strategies albert Davleev. "After the failure of the prices of 13% in 2017, at the end of last and beginning of this year was a lot of talk about the glut of the Russian market of chicken meat and about the need to more effectively sell the goose, that is not to flood the market, reducing prices. As a result, some major poultry companies have taken the decision to reduce landings of birds", — told the "Agroinvestor" Davleev. According to him, now is the time this cycle of reducing the production ends as it begins with a reduction in parental flocks and on average takes up to six months.
"Thus, currently we can say that at the level of the increased consumer activity, which in the first half amounted to 3-4%, the reduction in supply led to the formation of a certain imbalance between consumer demand and supply," stated Davleev. In addition, he continued, the rise in prices affects the situation in the pig breeding sector. "The fluctuations in the prices of chicken traditionally repeat the price dynamics for the pork, and the lag between them is on average 4-6 weeks," — said the expert, Recalling that in August meat processors complained of a sharp increase in prices for pig meat. Another important factor is the cost of feed due to the rising cost of grain and fodder. "Today's proposal, for example, for wheat IV class in the Central Federal district by at least 30-40% higher than the same period of 2017 and prices continue to rise," explains the President of Agrifood Strategies.
In addition, to a certain extent on the situation in the sector impact emerged in this year's financial difficulties at the "White bird" is the fourth largest producer in 2017. "Now a manufacturer changes its position in the market, which is reflected in the dynamics of production in Belgorod, Rostov and Kursk regions," said Kudryakova. So, in January-August poultry production in the agricultural organizations of the Belgorod region decreased by 7%, in Kursk region — on 13%. However, according to Davleev, the amount of "White birds" are not so high as to significantly affect the market as a whole. According to the Russian poultry Union, in the past year, the company "White bird" made 301,8 thousand tons of meat in live weight or 5% of the total volume produced by Russian agricultural enterprises.
According to Rosstat, last year, Russian farmers increased production by almost poultry by 7% to 4.9 million t. According to the forecast of IKAR, at the end of 2018, the issue will be approximately at the level of 2017. The Russian poultry Union expects growth of 1.5-2% to more than 5 million tonnes.
In the framework of the exhibition "Agroprodmash-2018" in the Expocentre hosted several business events, which have actively discussed the fate of the dairy industry: the national business forum "Strategic challenges APK-2019: investment, digital technology, increasing efficiency," XIII all-Russian Forum "Innovative technologies and equipment in the dairy industry" and other conferences.
Milknews made a selection of the main themes raised during the discussion by the experts so you don't miss anything important.
1. You need to improve the quality and reduce costs
Andrey Danilenko, Chairman of the Board Soyuzmoloko: Agriculture is the only sector showing sustained growth in the last 10 years. In the next 5-6 years, the industry will face serious challenges, so market players need to make important strategic decisions. First and foremost, it is about cost competitiveness and product quality. If we fail to comply with the new technologies, to develop science, it is hopelessly lag behind these parameters. Overall, the sector has great potential, and we can be competitive both on our own and in world markets.
Aina Kusainova, Director of the EEC Department for agricultural policy: No cost reduction is impossible to achieve the required performance in agriculture. The important role played by the digitalization of the economy.
2. You need to export to a specific point in the world where we're competitive
Yevgeny Shulepov, a member of the agricultural Committee of the state Duma: the President has set the goal of doubling exports by 2025. You need to think about how to Finance these projects. In addition, exports often leads to costs for the producers, and it needs to be profitable.
Andrey Danilenko: Export - political challenge, an opportunity to test yourself and find out if we can meet the requirements posed by the world.
Dmitry Rylko, General Director of Ikar: it is Necessary to clearly classify the markets where we are competitive, potentially competitive or noncompetitive. In external food trade in Russia there is an imbalance between the weight and the cost. We export enough cheap raw material and import products with high added value.
3. You need to invest in infrastructure and deep processing
Andrey Danilenko: the New team of the Ministry of agriculture - a team of bankers, they understand the Economics of the business and the need of state support. We can see at least maintaining the levels of state support that were.
I think that we will see infrastructure support, support mololetki industries - milk powder, butter etc. I Hope the authorities will seriously to also apply to investments in science, education and logistics.
4. You need to invest in education and modernize now
Bashir Uzdenov: Problems of recycling market at the moment is the conservative problems of personnel provision industry is facing a shortage of competent executives. The level of training of middle and lower levels leaves much to be desired.
The range and needs of the market also causes difficulties when updating the assortment of the company are not repelled from the demand/marketing analysis of the market, and the capabilities of equipment manufacturers.
A successful company actively investing in the modernization of production. In recent years, due to the economic situation, the number of upgraded companies is growing, but slowly.
Popular now use a membrane technology and the application of flow production methods - for example, flow conditioners or a full building production chains. As a rule, such projects are implemented in large enterprises, with such decisions, the number of staff proportionally reduced.
New directions: the query processors is supplied to the equipment for functional foods, products with high margins and line for production cheese - in terms of import restrictions.
5. You need to follow the mood of consumers
Anastasia Jafarov, Director for work with clients, research Department of consumer panels, GfK Rus: Trends in the FMCG market - security and peace of mind, a conscious choice, the value (not price), innovation, accessibility, new experiences, health.
The Russians preferred to increase the consumption of premium cheese and reduce consumption mass-markety of cheese. Butter shows the greatest decline amid the increase in the average price - the unbranded segment, people are afraid to buy something because of counterfeiting in the information field, so the more buy well-known brands.
In the category of yogurts and novelties become the main tool to increase.
6. You need to stop to fill up buyer promotions
Ivan Fedyakov, CEO of INFOline Market is recovering, for the first half of 2018, the growth of retail trade was 2.6%. But by 2020 we will reach the pre-crisis level, customers say that it is now working harder than in 2015-2016. Only one of the four providers are working with networks of the second tier considers that they are satisfied with the cooperation with the retailer.
Breadth of assortment, which are offered discounts, has ceased to grow. The game itself is in a price spiral leads nowhere, many networks are thinking about how to break the vicious circle, although it will be difficult.
Andrey Danilenko: We see a positive trend from the point of view of demand, it is gradually increasing. Trading network, however, still discussing what the average check continues to fall, and that the consumer becomes more sensitive to discounts and promotions, because for him the price is an important factor in terms of deciding on the purchase.
7. Need to impress the buyer packing
Ivan Fedyakov, General Director, INFOline: coming to the fore the portioned packaging. Increased mobility increases demand for products which can be consumed "on the go". In addition, the reduction of packaging is the ability to save, as not all can buy anything in bulk. Small amounts are important for people living alone, and there's quite a few in large cities.
At the end of this year we plan to reach the level of STM networks about 9%, the potential is huge - in Europe private label share is over 50%. Now all major Russian network strategies have points on STM.
Bashir Uzdenov, Director of "Basson": Businesses ready to spend more money on packaging for dairy products among popular formats, it is possible to allocate small packing, assembled in a group, such as bulk packaging for snacking and packing for grated/chopped cheese slices.
8. Need to work on the image of the entire dairy category
Andrey Danilenko: When we talk about production, it must objectively note what her comments are, not to make sensational statements about a large percentage of of counterfeit. We have three labs may have different results, and here is something to think about. In General in Russia is not so bad is the situation with the quality in comparison with other countries. The competition is high, the network set very strict requirements.
What we currently allow unduly to criticize Russian products in the media, would be of no benefit. We have at the national level, to convey to all, that milk is useful and no danger in itself does not carry. We must have a positive image in terms of a product, at least domestically. If we don't like it you can sell to other countries?
Elena Yurova, head of the laboratory of technocontrol the RUSSIAN VNIMI: Image loss "thanks" to the companies who monitor the market and push the charges to the manufacturers (without legal rights) are very large.
MOSCOW, October 9 — RIA Novosti, Natalia Dembinski. The Ministry of agriculture in this and next year sell a half million tons of grain — wheat, rye and feed barley from the state intervention Fund. The grain purchased in the previous years, and now will be sent to the domestic market or for export. The proceeds will be transferred to the Federal budget. Why you need a grain interventions why the market is waiting for price hike and how it will affect ordinary consumers — in the material RIA Novosti.
A bad harvest
The mechanism of procurement and commodity (sales) of intervention grain operates in Russia since 2001. Public intervention is used to stabilize grain prices and support farmers.
Last year harvested a record grain crop in the history of the country — 135,4 million tons, including 85.9 million tons of wheat. Figure 2016 — of 120.7 million tons. This year the situation is different: due to adverse weather conditions, analysts predict that the grain harvest at 110 million tons, the Ministry of agriculture talking about 100 million tons. According to the Ministry, the loss can reach 30 million tons.
The reserve Fund exists to regulate prices, when they grow too much.
The sale of grain from reserves analysts attribute to a combination of two factors. First, the state monthly spends huge money in order to compensate for the elevators the cost of storage at a predetermined rate. The sale will allow to balance the cost of maintenance of the Fund.
Secondly, this year the domestic prices may move up due to poor harvest and low rate of the ruble.
To insure against price hike
According to Dmitry Rylko, the General Director of Institute of agrarian marketing, in the course of the season and third class wheat in Central Russia to rise to 15 thousand rubles per ton.
"Due to the fact that now there are many proinflationary factors (this and the forthcoming VAT increase, and an increase in the cost of fuel), there is a reason to put a little pressure on prices. Derivatives of corn — bread and flour — are very responsive to inflationary expectations of the population", — said Timur Nigmatullin, a financial analyst "Discovery broker". So, if inflation gets out of control, it is a good way to slow down.
Thus, the government wants to insure in advance against accelerating inflation and high prices in the grain market.
Now, in October, to engage in price regulation is not necessary, said Vladimir Petrichenko, but in the case of a sharp price hike the Ministry of agriculture will be able to quickly go to market with commodity interventions. Therefore, the current decision about the impending sale is the course for the future.
Analysts, however, point out that the scale of the market projected sales quite a bit more than per cent, and therefore the impact on prices will be minimal. "The main goal is more of updating inventory, because grain cannot be stored forever," — said Nigmatullin.
What will happen to the price of bread
Whether the public to expect rise in price of bread during the jump in grain prices? Experts explain: the price of bread is only weakly dependent on the price of wheat, and even flour, because the bread the wheat is not so high. Grain prices will almost never affect the cost of bread. The main factor of annual inflation.
"The price of a loaf of bread, which the buyer picks store, grain accounts for only 20-25 percent. The rest is the cost of processing grain into flour, the wages of bakers, electricity, transport costs, mark-up the retail network and so forth," — says Pavel Skurikhin, President of the National Union of grain producers.
Buyer pays for cost components that vary within the country in line with inflation. And there are components in this simple product quite a lot, and they are all increasing in price. This, in particular, expenditure on water, electricity, gas, spare parts, payroll, sewage water, modernization of production.
That is the main factor affecting the price of bread, ' inflation processes. Experts suggest that the bread in the coming months even surpass inflation. The main reasons for the rise of the dollar, the cost of petrol and the VAT increase.
For the first time in "Expocentre" in the framework of which started its work the exhibition "Agroprodmash-2018" was held all-Russian business forum "Strategic challenges APK -2019: investments, digital technology, increased efficiency".
The forum is intended to be a place of dialogue of the first persons of the enterprises of agroindustrial complex of the Russian Federation with public figures, experts, economists and analysts of the agricultural sector. In its work take part the State Duma deputies, representatives of Executive authorities, relevant ministries and agencies, financial sector, heads of agricultural enterprises, companies processing agricultural products and equipment manufacturers, developers of new technologies for agriculture.
The program of the Forum was opened by the Assembly of Directors of "agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation: main trends of the development in 2019-2022 year." The participants talked about strategic and sectoral problems of the Russian agricultural market, including government subsidies for domestic companies, import substitution, digitalization of enterprises of agroindustrial complex.
"Russian agriculture continues to evolve. This is the only industry in the economy of Russia, which last 10 years gives annual sustainable growth", – said the moderator of the Assembly, the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the company "Belaya Dacha", the head of the RF CCI Committee for the development of agriculture Viktor Semenov. – It has great potential for the use of digital technologies".
About government programmes to support Russian agriculture told the state Duma Deputy Yevgeny Shulepov. He said that in 2018 for the implementation of regional programs of agriculture was allocated 39 billion rubles in 2019, the amount of subsidies will amount to 40.6 billion rubles. The MP also touched on the comprehensive development of rural areas, the need for the establishment of a national project on this important issue.
Vice-President Trading-industrial chamber of the Russian Federation Elena Dubova raised the issue of markets for products of Russian manufacturers. Speaking about the difficulties of entering small businesses in the shopping network, she said that "the expansion of big retail chains destroying small forms of trade."
"Agriculture is one of priority directions of deepening of integration within the Eurasian economic Union, – said the Deputy Director of the EEC Department for agricultural policy Ayna Kusainova. – Problems of markets, the instability of the measures of state support, formation of consignments, and others are common to all member countries of the EEC".
On global challenges and prospects of the domestic agricultural sector and its export potential to the Assembly, also said the Chairman of the National Union of milk producers Andrey Danilenko, General Director of the Institute for agricultural market studies Dmitry Rylko, the honorary President of the Russian Union of bakers Anatoly Kosovan.
Union "Omsk chamber of Commerce" together with the city Administration of Omsk conducts annual monitoring of the status and development of competitive environment in the markets of goods, works and services of the Omsk region among the subjects of entrepreneurial activity in the sphere of wholesale and retail trade.
Please fill the questionnaire and send it via email: firstname.lastname@example.org the period until October 19, 2018
The press service of the Omsk chamber of Commerce, 25-43-50
In September, the poultry market in Russia saw a significant rise in prices. Back in August there was a slight decline in prices and stabilization after high values, which were formed on the market in mid-summer. Suggestions for chicken in September were not increased, the market remains in deficit for the carcass and breast fillets.
A number of poultry farms in September produced a carcass with a small weight, up to 1.2 kg. In mid-month sentences in such a carcass of the Bank and its cost is formed at a lower level than the carcass with a weight of 1.5 kg or more. In late September, most manufacturers have already raised their selling prices. The maximum value of the carcass of the Central Bank at the end of the month established at the level of 123 to 128 rubles. per kg.
It should be noted that the current level of prices for chicken maximum on record. The production volume in August by 2% below the previous year. Financial problems on the largest poultry sites impact in a negative production results in the major regions of poultry production. So in the Kursk region, the decrease is more than 20%, in Rostov region, about 50%, in other large regions the reduction is 1-6%. Low performance gain birds that have been observed since July, also contributes to the deficit. The increase in demand for poultry in August and September was influenced by the rapidly rising price of pork. It is likely that while it will not increase the balances of the main items the price of chicken will remain at a high level.
Cost breast fillets in September rose to averages 230 to 240 rubles. per kg. Cost of the wing in large wholesale a little more the values of August (70-75 rubles per kg), in the Siberian Federal district the cost of the wing was stabilized at the level 120-125 rubles per kg and above. The value of the calf in many regions is formed at the level of 115-120 rubles per kg, a decrease in demand for this position is not marked. Significantly reduced sentences for drumsticks, the cost of which to the end of the month established at the level of 115-120 rubles. per kg. For the month-end value of the carcass, the Central Bank has formed above the values of the 2017 39% .
Records are not expected, but food safety of Russia will not suffer — so you can characterize the results of the harvesting campaign this year. Official statistics will become known in October, but the overall picture is clear. About the problems of agriculture experts say a long time, but the list of challenges grows. However, the recovery program is not too complicated.
105 million tons of grain — this is the forecast of the Ministry of agriculture for the current year. Compared to 2017, when it harvested a record 135,4 million is not enough. Even amid 2016 (of 120.7 million tons) the result is more than modest. The past summer did not remember the particular natural disasters: neither heavy rains, nor many days of drought was not. What's the matter?
Predictions come true
"A situation that could lead to the insolvency of a significant part of our businesses and, as a consequence, their closure or bankruptcy", so in early summer, assessed the situation, the Minister of agriculture of the Chelyabinsk region Alexey Kobylin.
"Because of rising fuel prices we are in a difficult situation," sounded the alarm and the Governor of Stavropol Krai Vladimir Vladimirov.
Since the beginning of this year fuel has risen more than 25 percent compared with the 2017 year.
"We have already lost a lot of money, at least 50 billion rubles," — this assessment was given by the President of the Russian grain Union (RGU) Arkady Zlochevsky after planting.
As stated recently, the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR), only wheat harvested decreased by 700 thousand hectares. Moreover, these data are estimates, the numbers may shift upwards.
Gloomy forecast of the head of the Russian grain Union and experts, alas, come true. Difficult situation and with the "second bread". The cost of potato producers increased in comparison with 2017 in addition to fuel, have risen in price and imported seed material (Germany and the Netherlands, partly Belarus) are growing and the Euro. The purchase prices fell last year by more than half. A two-fold increase in imports has put many households on the brink of survival. The cost of the tubers on wholesale bases dropped to 9,000 rubles per tonne, from farms, of course, buy a 30-50 percent cheaper. According to experts, 77 percent of the production of potatoes provides traders, 8% are farmers, the remaining share of large agricultural companies. To promptly remedy the failure in the first two segments of the market they are not.
The forecast of the Ministry of agriculture from February 2018 was negative 26.6 million tons. Meanwhile, Executive Director of the Potato Union of Russia Alexey Krasilnikov then spoke of the total of 22 million tons.
Fuel costs are important but not the only problem in the village. Where the dope is another big headache of farmers. Per thousand hectares of arable land in Russia is on average two tractors is negligible. For comparison: in Belarus, a thousand hectares — nine pieces of equipment in the United States of America — 25, Germany and the Netherlands — over 60. Besides domestic index it is necessary to divide at least in half, as a significant portion of our tractors have long served their. The result — a loss that, according to some estimates, measured in 10-30 percent of the crop. Not only grain but also of potatoes, vegetables and other crops.
"Strategy of development of agricultural mechanical engineering of Russia for the period till 2030" provides that, in 2021, the industry must ensure the growth of 21%. However, while dominated by the opposite trend, businesses continue to close. Last fall was stopped by Vladimir motor-tractor plant (vmtz), but he hoped that it would restart. Alas, now in the shops is empty: all equipment, including fully certified, exported. Concern "tractor plants", which included vmtz, declared bankrupt, the Bank is trying to recover his debt. Only the structure of the holding includes about two dozen companies producing tractors, harvesters and other agricultural machinery and spare parts. And in some areas there is no alternative. So, diesel engines D-120, D-130, D-144 and D-145 now not to buy, moreover, in addition to villages affected and road industry, these power units are on asfaltobetonnyh rollers and other machines.
"Motors vmtz can not find, only used, and the price is greatly increased. The plant is gone, and the people here are trying to create reserves to insure. Because other engines do not put, checked. The course is even the most recent stuff. And buy it, especially farmers. Tractors T-16, T-40 and other many more thousands and buy them instead of new foreign money, no one," explained the sales Manager of the company "Promtechnologii" Michael.
I would like to hope for the best, however, in the documents of the Ministry of industry and trade are the indicators that at the moment other than fantastic is difficult to call. First of all it concerns rates of lending to households, it is at the level of 5-6 percent per annum. Meanwhile, loans to companies for the purchase of equipment starting from 10-15 percent per annum. And given the recently raised the refinancing rate, no reason to lower the cost of borrowed capital for legal persons no.
Tractors domestic models in 2017 was produced 2365 units against 2591 a year earlier. The so-called foreign cars of the Russian assemblage — made of major components — demonstrate the progress 4698 pieces against the 4103. The situation is similar for harvesters.
"C "Tractor plants", of course, is not so clear, there were mistakes made by management. For example, they became interested in buying up assets. Extensive method development. But this particular, but the overall situation is not unique, rather typical. With one hand, the Central Bank raises refinancing rate, and the other prohibits loans to factories, demanding for them the most stringent conditions on loans. We are constantly confronted with this", — said the President of the Russian Association "Rosspetsmash" Konstantin Babkin.
But the plants is not all the problems. Sales techniques are also not very good. According to the information portal "Agroinvestor", in January — April 2018 indicators on the ploughs decreased by 16 percent, harrows — 25, seeders 43, combine harvesters — 50, four-wheel drive tractors to 28 percent.
Forward into the past
Harvest of 2018 on indicators similar to what was in 2013-2014. And the predicted growth of cost of gasoline and diesel fuel — it is estimated at 7-10 per cent before the end of 2018 and 18-20 percent after the New year — are forced to think seriously about what farmers will do in the spring.
From 1 January 2019, the excise tax on motor fuel will increase by 2.7–3.7 thousand rubles per ton, for diesel fuel, the fee will be 8541 ruble, gasoline — 12 314. Thus, the government plans to complete the tax maneuver, in may this year, its implementation had to be suspended because of the explosive growth of the fuel prices. Shortly after the publication of plans to excise the head of the Russian fuel Union Evgenie Arkusha has warned of the possibility of another spike in fuel prices.
"This year, households met not in the best financial shape for field work at a good technological level there were no conditions. The harvest last year led to a significant reduction in grain prices, revenues plummeted, plus the rising cost of fuel this spring. Further increases in fuel prices will affect productivity," cautiously predicts Vice-President of the Russian grain Union Alexander Korbut.
To avoid destruction, the economy will be any ways to cut costs, which will naturally affect the quality of the product. In particular, instead of the so-called "food" grains will increase the share of feed wheat, which will inevitably fall to us in the form of baked goods. It's simple — feed the corn to grow cheaper, the better.
By the way, the same thing will happen with the potatoes. There are high-yielding and inexpensive to manufacture varieties, but they are grown for feeding animals. From table potatoes "technical" features size tubers, sweet flavor, and starch content and significantly more protein. This is to ensure that the animal quickly gained weight. People these potatoes but healthier from this food like no one will be. The information that these roots arrived in stores already went to the people, and the phrase "feed potatoes, as distinguished from the good" has become very popular in Russian Internet search engines.
The wheat situation is better, although from lack of money, many companies also austerity. "Some large farms after the collapse of grain prices, indeed, this spring I bought the cheapest seed. Accordingly, the wheat they have left the "feed". But the mass is a phenomenon I would not call, in the whole country, apparently, the share of food grain will remain at the same level. But the price of food will rise, however, they grew last year, despite a record harvest. And now, in addition to grain, it is worth considering rising fuel, housing and other factors", — analyst IKAR Oleg Sukhanov. However, he advises not to panic and to evaluate risks and state of Affairs: "for example, the words of the leaders of the regions that everything is bad, do not always reflect the real situation. To report that the village is wonderful, they will not give subsidies. Here are the heads a little and cry the Blues".
The reserves are
Put pressure on Russia and neighbors. In March of this year the European Central Bank lowered the base interest rate of 0.05 with a symbolic annual to zero. The industry is doing well, exports to Russia, over half of which are machinery, equipment and tools records. Last year, the number of positions increased by 20-25 per cent, despite the strong Euro. In terms of cheap funding from European companies, there is space for price maneuver. On subsidizing of agriculture spent more than a third of the total EU budget, or about 50 billion euros. In addition to these direct costs, there are powerful indirect support in the form of import restrictions. Last year's attempt by the Russian Ministry of economic development to reason with the EU through the global trade organization collapsed in Brussels pretended that nothing was noticed.
"Recipes have long been known, their effectiveness has not been challenged. Cheap loans — and factories, and village. Cheapest fuel. Measures to protect the domestic market, both food and industrial, as in the domestic trade area, and on the outside too. And then we realize the tremendous growth potential that exists in agriculture", — said Konstantin Babkin.
Yet such measures are only discussed. So, the Ministry of agriculture is going in the next year to increase the amount of funds to support agriculture not to 242.6 billion rubles as it was planned earlier, and on the 302 billion.
Although in March Vladimir Putin ordered in 2019 to increase subsidies to agricultural producers, not everything is clear with tested program of subsidizing the purchase of tractors and combines (a refund of 15 percent of the cost), thanks to which the Russian agricultural mechanical engineering for the last four years remained afloat.
However, reasons for discouragement there. The assets of Russia has more than 40 million hectares of land that can be quickly returned to production, for the most part — Nechernozemie. And if you suddenly develop an adverse conjuncture of the food market, these lands will be involved. You can reduce the price of fuel. Two dollars per barrel — that is, according to the head of "Rosneft" Igor Sechin, the average cost of oil production in Russia.
Here is my village
The theme of the village has always been for the Russian culture one of the most important. Before the emancipation Manifesto of 1861 discussed the liberation of the peasants (think the "rebel worse than Pugachev" and his Alexander Radishchev "Journey from St. Petersburg to Moscow"), after they talked about the distortions of the reform ("to Whom in Russia to live well" by Nikolay Nekrasov). Poets and writers asked a simple question: who is to blame that most of the population of a rich and Russia is poor, and what to do in order to change this situation?
The answers sought and scientists. There are a few fundamental works devoted to the problem of the Russian peasantry. One of them — the work of academician Leonid Milov "Great Russian ploughman and peculiarities of Russian historical process." In 2000, this book was awarded the State prize.
The author appeals to all the circumstances that influenced the life of the peasant, exploring the history of the XV–XIX centuries. Not last role has played and especially agriculture. "Russian farmer, like all farmers of the middle latitudes, focused exclusively on the rather large and complex set of traditions of agriculture, bequeathed to him from previous generations — says Milov. — Form of this experience in the form of unshakable traditions, unchanging tradition and rules dictate without question their compliance". He notes that, apparently, it was this largely explains the "immunity of a peasant new techniques of agriculture, the modernization of the instruments of labor".
When these are not the most favorable conditions, the farmer in Russia practiced serfdom, paying the landlord, and the grain that he raised, in the end, massively exported. Besides, if there came years of famine, the export of grain only increased, as prices immediately soared. Have a simple little guy that was left. Academician Milov concludes that after the reform of 1861 there was a sharp depletion of the main mass of the peasantry.
"The low level of agriculture, low and very low yields, very simplified the way of life of the peasantry, always struggling for survival, are located seemingly in apparent contradiction with the remarkable fate of the Russian state, rising in the late fourteenth century against the Golden Horde yoke and passing through the most severe tests, by the end of the XVIII century became one of the most powerful countries of Europe" — sums up the researcher.
The Soviet project was called the farmer to release. The construction of a classless society would lead to equality and abundance (the best example of that idea in the culture — of course, the film "Kuban Cossacks" Ivan pyreva, but about the new village and wrote Sergei Esenin, Leonid Leonov), but to the 70-th years of last century cultural workers are back to the fact that problems in the village too much. The "village prose" (Vasily Belov, Valentin Rasputin, Viktor Astaf) was a literature of farewell, an attempt to understand the life of the peasantry in the era of collective farms, but left hope for the revival of the appeal to the roots and traditions of the people.
Great collection of short stories Victor Astafiev, which is largely autobiographical, is called "the Last bow". Included in his works are about rural life, about the importance to remember their roots and traditions.
"Farewell to Matyora" — the story of Valentin Rasputin of the village which will be submerged due to the construction in its place of the Bratsk hydroelectric station. People need to settle, many do not want to quit their homes, but soon the whole mater will go under water like Atlantis. Young people are easier to part with the past, and the elderly hard even to realize that this place is going to leave.
The topic of the village of culture has almost disappeared. In books and films there is no "eternal questions" or stories about people work, analysis of social conflicts. But the village is alive, contrary to the most gloomy forecasts.