In the largest international exhibition of construction, mining and road machinery Bauma CONEXPO AFRICA-2018, which is taking place these days in Johannesburg, announced the official start of sales of KAMAZ vehicles in South Africa.
"KAMAZ" for the first time at Bauma CONEXPO AFRICA, which traditionally brings together representatives of about a hundred countries from around the world. This year the exhibition was visited by more than 500 exhibitors and 20 thousand visitors, including delegations from Botswana, Chile, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia. KAMAZ participates in the exhibition together with its official distributor in Africa – company BELL EQUIPMENT. In the presence of Deputy Director General of KAMAZ for sales and service of Sergey Afanasyev was declared the official start of sales of KAMAZ vehicles in South Africa. Potential consumers are offered the RHD trucks with engine capacity of 400 HP: the KAMAZ-6520-63 (6x4), KAMAZ-65201-63 (8x4), KAMAZ-65222-63 (6x6) and a 15-ton dump truck KAMAZ-65115-78 engine 285л.with. All these vehicles are equipped with tipping bodies production of "NEFAZ", subsidiary of JSC "KAMAZ" and shown here as part of the KAMAZ exposition. Also, visitors are greeted by legendary sports truck team "KAMAZ-master".
Note that tipping variations popular in the country because in Africa there are many different types of minerals. For this reason, the "KAMAZ" in the first place, it brings to the markets of Africa the trucks right-hand drive. In the near future in the region will start to operate warehouse trucks and spare parts KAMAZ. In addition, the automaker in conjunction with BELL Equipment is ready to offer consumers extended up to two years guarantee on the trucks and full service package. In fact, for the "KAMAZ", it means an important and promising markets of the African continent. In plans – the further expansion of geography of presence of the company: KAMAZ vehicles will be presented at the official dealers of BELL companies in 12 African countries, including Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mauritius, Madagascar, etc.
We will remind, in 2016 with the aim of testing in South Africa were shipped four dump truck KAMAZ-6520, -65201, -65222, -65115 in the restyling. In January 2018 KAMAZ has supplied 54 of the truck. In the course of this year in South Africa will be shipped at least hundreds of complete trucks KAMAZ, 2019, the company plans to export at least 300 trucks per year, with possible adjustment of the volumes upwards.
A rapid rise indacochea sector may be over barely before it began. If 2014 and 2016 production volumes in the segment has doubled, then in 2017 the increase was less than the average annual levels of around 3%. Experts optimistic is a temporary downturn. The development of the industry will stimulate the growth of consumption and the expansion of exports
In less than ten years the Russian market of Turkey has evolved from a small niche poultry in a separate category, are presented in stores along with pork, beef, broiler meat and used by processors as raw materials. According to consulting company Agrifood Strategies, the volume of Turkey meat production between 2010 and 2016 has increased 4.7 times, from 48.2 thousand tons to 226.5 thousand tons in slaughter weight. And in 2016, compared to the previous year, the growth rate of over 50%. Experts predicted that such growth will continue in the near term. However, at the end of 2016 and first half 2017 in Russia intensified the avian influenza that has led to deaths of livestock broiler for several companies in the Moscow region, Tatarstan, Chechnya, the Krasnodar territory and other regions. The virus struck and the company one of the largest manufacturers Turkey — Rostov "Eurodon". The complex was suspended for six months. According to the company, it was destroyed about 15% of the poultry population.
Players leave the market...
Assessment Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR), Turkey production in 2017 remained at the level of 2016, when it was released about 226,5 kt of the national Union of producers and processors of Turkey meat does not exclude reduction of volumes by 2% to 220 thousand tons, the President of Agrifood Strategies albert Davleev pre-production estimates to 233 thousand tons (all figures are in carcass weight). The increase compared to the previous year, in his opinion, was less than 3%.
The past year has exposed all the risks, which has repeatedly warned the experts. In particular, high dependence on import of hatching eggs and Chicks daily. In April 2017 their importation because of bird flu was restricted by the Rosselkhoznadzor at first from Poland, then from Germany and other EU countries. "Indenbaum had to quickly switch to supplies from Canada and the United States, and the change of supplier is time, frustration, unplanned expenses, — says CEO of the National Association in the field of agriculture indacochea Yuri Markov. In one way or another the anxiety and discomfort experienced by all, without exception economy. Some enterprises have shifted the graphics of growing and as a result, decreased sales volumes".
In 2017, their own parent flocks had only the two companies "Evrodon" and "Russian agro" (part two indacochea poultry — Morozov in the Omsk region and in the Tyumen Yurga), which provided less than 30% of the sector needs in the incubation egg. "The situation was aggravated by the fact that in the closing period of the EU "Evrodon" is also not carried out the sale of hatching eggs due to the outbreak of bird flu — said Markov. — And in fact depend on many small businesses that can't afford imports." To resume production, the company was able in July. Earlier, the head of holding Vadim Vaneev has estimated the damage from the disease in 2.6 billion rubles excluding lost profits.
Not to leave the market was forced to "Bashkir poultry complex named after Gafuri" ("BOD"). According Agrifood Strategies, the company has entered into a three of leaders in the market, controlling about 12% of the total production of turkeys in the country and occupying a leading position in the Urals. The application for recognition of a bankrupt Bashkir Interdistrict Inspectorate of the FTS for major taxpayers filed in November of last year. In September we scored the last herd. By the time the enterprise was about 45 thousand turkeys in January, there were 700 thousand According to Davleev, until the beginning of 2017 in the case "BOD" went well. "They were a normal production cycle. The capacity of the complex, representing a vertically integrated enterprise is allowed to produce over 30 thousand tons in slaughter weight," he says. The company has focused on own brand retail but it was lost the moment of rapid growth of Federal and local retail. But it is difficult to compete.
The further fate of the complex is unclear. "Owners "BOD" asked for a 20-30 billion rubles, but willing to buy it for such price not found", — knows one of the market participants. And the longer the enterprise is equipped with modern equipment will be left unattended, the less likely that they do are someone interested.
In addition to the "BOD" in the past year, stopped working and other small companies — "Progress" in the Tula region, the poultry farm "Udmurt", says mark. But for a few years, the market took several large, small and medium-sized farms: "the Siberian Province" (Krasnoyarsk region), "Agromars" (Tatarstan), Agrofirma "Gertsevskaya" (Belgorod region) and others, adds Davleev. Reason: inability to reduce costs with insignificant production volumes, the absence of long-term contracts with the retail network, funding problems, high debt load, errors in management, he enumerates.
Now the main problem of the sector is the high level of competition and avian influenza, the Director of "the Tambov Turkey" (joint enterprise "Cherkizovo" and Grupo Fuertes Spanish) Andrey Kovalev. Small, inefficient enterprises morally and physically obsolete and cannot compete with the modern and will continue to leave the market, he said.
... but there will be new?
Domestic Turkey-keeping is already characterized by a high degree of consolidation and concentration. On the assessment of Agrifood Strategies, the overall share of the four largest manufacturers — "Damate" (Penza oblast), "Eurodon", "Tambov Turkey" and "Krasnobor" (Tula region) — more than 71% of total production in carcass weight.
For "the Tambov Turkey" 2017 has been successful. The company took the place of the bankrupt "BOD", has received the planned production growth and produced 38 thousand tons of Turkey meat in live weight. Strengthened its position in 2017 and the company "Damate", having the design capacity of 60 thousand tons in slaughter weight. Over the next two years the production volume will increase to 155 tonnes per year. The total project cost will amount to 41 billion rubles, says co-owner and General Director of Damate Rashid khayrov. In the spring of 2018, the company will launch a new slaughter plant at 3 thousand birds / hour. The plans of the "Eurodon" for this year — increase in production up to 150 thousand tons of Turkey meat in live weight. After modernization of its third meat processing plant holding company expects to grow to 270 thousand tons.
The top players are a vertically integrated company, with experience, opportunities for expansion, established marketing channels. Small businesses find it difficult to compete with them. The winner is the one manufacturer that has learned to sell even the cheapest items from Turkey at a high price. Due to packaging, different types of cutting, clever marketing and other things, said Yuri Markov. "Some bankrupt enterprises relied just on the sale of meat in the carcass. Or due to unstable flows accumulated sales volumes in the deep freeze, and then was forced to reduce prices, he explains. — Implementation of only one fillet does not generate profit, it is important to rely on high-margin products, including products deep processing, such as sausages, kupaty, gourmet row." The greatest demand is high quality packaged chilled products. This requires special expensive equipment, but the opportunity to buy it is not at all, says the expert.
However, even with high competition space for new players, admits Markov. "In many regions of Turkey do not grow. For example, residents of Eastern Siberia and the Far East, almost do not know what chilled Turkey", — he said. Production of major players are concentrated in the centre and South of the country. Albert Davleev sees the prospects for any regional small enterprises (up to 10 thousand tons per year slaughter weight), focused exclusively on local consumers. "When buying food, our citizens have traditionally been very Patriotic. If one shelf will lie imported and local goods, then the buyer will choose the local, even if it costs more. Especially if we are talking about chilled products," — said the expert.
New investors do appear. A small poultry farm (2.1 thousand tons of Turkey meat in slaughter weight) is planned to be built in Angarsk district of Irkutsk region. The total cost of the project, including the seven corps of feed production, slaughtering, cutting, packing house, is 275 million rubles with a payback Period of about three years. The first phase will cost 100 million rubles "We have studied the local market and saw that chilled turkeys on it at all no, — says the founder of the project "Turkey Angara" Anna Lazarev. — Interest in the product has already expressed retail, including Federal networks, and processors". The estimated price of a Turkey in the opt — 158 RUB/kg for the carcass, but the cutting will be more expensive.
Investors have already invested in the construction of poultry houses, of communications, of the incubator to about 80 million rubles of its own funds, but the money ran out. "At the level of administration of the region the project has received significant financial support. All of us are happy to help you with any problems. However, to get a loan we are unable for about a year," shares Lazarev. The regional branch of the savings Bank has already rejected the company due to the lack of normal collateral base. "We asked for 100 million rubles for the first phase of the project. It involves the overhaul of the old poultry farm, the construction of the feed, the organization of the slaughterhouse, procurement of equipment for poultry houses, he says. — But banks are very cautious".
In December, Anna Lazarev defended the project at the investment Council at the Governor of the Irkutsk region and became a regional investor. "Now the opportunity to work with us considering a "Corporation of development of the Irkutsk region", VTB, but the prospects are still unclear. We have everything ready, and if we start financing, we are ready to begin production within two months," she says.
According to estimates Agrifood Strategies in Russia, announced about 50 indacochea projects, and this figure has not changed for several years. Some were stages of approval by the local regional administrations and the credit committees of banks. Under them were even allocated land, infrastructure elements, project documentation was developed, but construction has not begun. Others do exist only on paper. According to estimates Davleev, indemodable project with a capacity of 10-15 thousand tons a year will now cost an investor $8-10 million This amount will be required to establish the incubator, feeding areas, slaughterhouse. The maturity dates of the investments increased from 5-7 to 8-10 years. Banks are also reluctant to lend to such projects, especially considering the fact that even quite successful players are faced with certain failure, he says.
To undermine demand
One of the problems of market turkeys last year was the reduction in real disposable incomes. Demand stagnated. In addition, the culture of consumption of turkeys in the country is still insufficiently generated, says the sales Director of the company "Krasnobor" Sergey Kokorev. As a result, the market saw oversupply. "Its stated capacity of the leaders of the industry, opened a small factory in Omsk, and Orenburg regions, many producers are forced to sell product below cost, is a tough fight for the shelves of all formats, which is reflected in the prices," he says. So, if in may of last year in large wholesale price fillet of Turkey breast reaches 275 RUB/kg in January 2018, it was already less than 200 rubles/kg.
Formed a certain circle of consumers who consider Turkey as a useful product for every day and are willing to pay for it. But this applies mainly to the inhabitants of large cities and prosperous regions, draws the attention of the General Director of the Russian poultry Union Galina Bobyleva. In General, Turkey is competing with one hand with the broiler, the other with pork. Moreover, the demand for both products is stable. "People make a choice in favor of the former, because today is the most usual and cheap meat — she said. — The price of broiler is almost not growing for three years."
Andrey Kovalev is certain that in the next three to five years demand will grow, what would be the incentive for new projects. While the consumption of Turkey in Russia is still nedotyagivaet to the level of Western countries and averages about 2 kg/year. "The food habits we are very similar to Europeans. And for several years it is possible to increase the annual consumption of Turkey meat to 5-8 kg per person, — says independent expert in the meat market Mushegh Mamikonian. — This means an increase in the production at least twice". Davleev according to the forecast, in 2018, the production volume of this type of meat will rise to 320 million tonnes, and by 2025 will exceed 500 thousand tons in slaughter weight.
To expand the demand by any consumer category. "Paradoxically, the Turkey regularly buy retirees — not the secured category of buyers, says Kokorev. They look after their health and are willing to let occasionally and in small quantities, but there is it. Increasingly buying a Turkey for kids". According to Hirova, it is necessary to move to regions whose markets are not saturated, and by them to boost demand. "The development of the industry rests not only in the solvency of the population, but in the logistics capabilities of the manufacturer, i.e. how far and in what volumes it can deliver its products without sacrificing quality," adds Bobylev. Today the main sales channel — supermarkets and hypermarkets, which prefer to work with packaged meat and the speed of delivery. Preference for a La carte products with a fixed weight, which forms the other logistics trends. For example, the new plant of "Damate" is not available storage space: the packaged products are immediately sent to the buyer. "We've reduced the time from the start of cutting the cooled product before sending it to the consumer up to eight hours," said Khairov.
The consumption of Turkey will increase together with rising incomes and the extent of cultivation in the society of a healthy lifestyle, says Kokorev. "Change for a particular type of meat is able to very quickly transform the structure of demand, and the Turkey will win a share of the broiler, and even pork — said Mamikonyan. — If the Turkey will be cheaper, more people will include it in your daily diet, along with chicken share is already significant." In his opinion, Turkey will continue to push beef as for their consumer properties these types of like meat: the carcass of a Turkey is not only white, but also from the "red" meat.
In addition, the market potential of Turkey is not limited solely to retail sales. There are many studies regarding the functional properties of different types of meat that are particularly important for the meat industry, because processors are customers of about 40% of the raw materials all kinds of meat, reminds Mamikonyan. "Functional properties of Turkey are also comparable with the properties of beef and exceeds the functionality of other types of meat," he says.
The exports in question
Another factor, which can stimulate the growth of production — the development of exports. Deliveries of Russian Turkey abroad will rise, and in 2025 reached 51 thousand tons, including by-products, I'm sure albert Davleev. Industry leaders already established distribution channels. "We are considering exports including as one of the ways to avoid saturation of the internal market and to protect it from the competitive wars," said Rashid khayrov. The first shipment abroad the company started in 2015. The export goes to EU countries and Serbia, Hong Kong, UAE, Vietnam and Benin. In 2017, the company exported 350 tons of Turkey meat. The plans for this year — obtaining of export permits in a number of States.
To expand delivery to other countries, and wants. In the short term, exports should be around 5% of the total range. Last year was sent abroad more than 100 T. "the Main thing is not just to begin deliveries in the country, and to establish long-term strategic partnership," — emphasizes Vadim Vaneev.
The most promising market indenomade think the EU, where consumption of the product increases, including by increasing the share of the Muslim population. "In the EU and Serbia are very much in demand fillet of Turkey breast. It accounts for 30% of poultry carcasses, and it is an expensive product, — says Sergey Kokorev. — Besides, in EU there are traders who are interested in our Turkey and are willing to buy it for future delivery in the state with a high degree of risk, in particular, Central and southern Africa."
According to Davleev, a market can become the fillet and the middle East. "There is little to eat Turkey, but do it from hams and even analog of bacon, he says. — So there you can sell both raw ingredients and finished products". In Southeast Asia, China, African countries demanded products.
However, at the moment, the export prospects are very vague. Since last year the EU markets, China, Vietnam, Hong Kong and several mid - middle Eastern countries is not available for the Russian birds due to quarantine on avian influenza. "The EU and some other countries do not recognize the Russian regionalization for this disease. Our country is closed as a single territory, irrespective of the place of outbreak and species of birds," explains Davleev.
The Turkey can't cook
According to market participants, in the promotion of Turkey should focus not only on its useful properties. As shown by the results of a joint study "Damate" Comcon and IPSOS in 2017, one of the reasons of refusal to purchase the Turkey meat is a negative experience: don't all know how to cook it. "Therefore, we are actively placed the recipes in social networks, working with cooking programs on television, and culinary schools, produced semi-finished products made of Turkey meat (burgers, meatballs, an assortment of grilling and roasting, sausages) that allows you to expand consumer experience and to develop sales", — says marketing Director of "Damate" Daria Lashchenko.
"Evrodon" for six years held simultaneously in 15 cities "Turkey Day" in which consumers learn what meals to cook from her. "Tambov Turkey" to promote the product uses TV support, digital as well as promotional and support at the point of sale.
The Turkey has its own specifics
According to albert Davleev of Agrifood Strategies, starting indacochea projects, not all investors understand the peculiarities of this business. Some believe that this is roughly the same as grown chicken. But broiler growing 35-42 days, and the male turkeys are 140-145, with the feed conversion of the turkeys below: about 2.5 kg per 1 kg of weight increase vs of 1.6−1.8 from the broiler, the expert said. This means that the costs of food and maintaining the health of the herds indenomade above. "And if because of financial problems was a failure for the purchase of feed, Turkey ceases to grow normally," he says.
Many ignore the rules of the veterinary safety. For example, create a production based on the existing broiler poultry farms that should not be done. "Turkey is a very naughty bird, she quickly catches the disease, it is necessary for the houses to be rebuilt in the open field, focuses Davleev. — Birds of different ages can not be planted close to each other, and from broiler, duck and especially other animals."
Another special factor is the high dependence of the sector on imported material. If the manufacturers some reason for at least one year will be denied the possibility of supplying eggs and Chicks from abroad, the domestic Turkey-keeping will end up together, I'm sure Yuri Markov of the National Association in the field indacochea economy. "Those businesses that have their own parental herd, will feel much more confident — he says. — Because the chick — future parents — we also buy abroad. Own "clean lines" turkeys of the heavy breeds in Russia".
Strategic review of the sugar market of Russia
The work is based on data from Rosstat, the Ministry of agriculture, Federal customs service of Russia, soyuzrossakhar, the world analytical agencies and private databases ICARUS.
Contains all the main indicators of the sugar market over the 2003-17 years and forecast for 2018
The information is presented in the form of text, tables and graphs.
The amount of work - more than 100 pages, including application page 70
Eugene Ivanov, March 2018, it is possible to upgrade on demand
1. The world sugar market
The main feature of the sugar market:
• The proportion of beet and cane sugar in world production of sugar
• The geography and seasonality of production and consumption, logistics
• Trends in the development of
• Multinational trading house
Estimates of world production and consumption of sugar, especially seasons
Data on production, consumption, export, import of raw and white sugar in the world in key countries.
Prices. The main quotation centres in the world, spreads, premiums, freight.
Diabetes insipidus and the factors that influence the dynamics of sugar prices in the world
2. World market and Russia
• Russia's Place
• Main trends
• The impact of the world market and CIS countries
• The impact of Russia's accession to the WTO
• Comparison of the structure of sugar consumption in Russia and the EU.
3. Russian market of sugar
The main trends
Market capacity, consumption
Pricing, factors, reasons of growth of price volatility
Seasonality and structure of production and consumption, comparison with EU countries
The logistics of raw sugar and white sugar
Resource base, geography
Acreage, gross harvest, yield, sugar yield from 1 ha, the cost and profitability of sugar beet production
Changes to the regulation: key points
The main clusters of players, market shares of
The dynamics of development, the overall status and forecast of development of the industry
Criteria of investment attractiveness of the sugar factory in Russia, new production projects
Guidelines for regional investment
The main risks for producers
The balance of sugar in Russia in the years 1997-2017 and forecast until 2018, with a detailed review of trends, scenarios of the consumption of sugar in Russia:
- Consumption, Export, Import (Raw, Syrup, Illegal imports of white sugar, White sugar) Production (refined Sugar, Sugar from raw sugar, syrup, beet), product offering without inventory on the beginning Balance for the period Reserves at end of period (White and Raw)
List of companies EU, USA, Brazil, is engaged in sugar business, coordinates.
Ratings of agricultural holdings for the production of sugar
A summary table of the Russian agro holdings: assets, power, sugar beet program, raw business, location, personalities.
The history of state regulation of sugar market in Russia.
Materials the choice of investment strategy
Raw campaign, about the reasons for loss of raw business in Russia.
The cost structure raw sugar (direct costs) 2004-17.
Sugar mills, companies and the market as a whole possible future up to 2020.
Typical problems of Russian agricultural companies
As Belarus is Russia's response to constraints in the supply of milk
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has promised to meet Russia to ban the import of Belarusian milk and assured that the Republic will sell their milk at the price that they want. The Rosselkhoznadzor reminded that the reason for the ban was disappointing statistics revealed violations. The Ministry of agriculture hopes that the parties will reconcile. Experts believe that eventually the ban will be imposed pointwise in the worst offenders.
Belarus threatens Russia in response to Moscow introduced restrictions on deliveries of Belarusian milk products to the Russian market.
The Rosselkhoznadzor had previously stated its intention to restrict access in Russia, the import of certain types of Belarusian milk products in connection "with the continuing flow of unsafe dairy products from Belarus to the Russian Federation". The embargo was to be introduced from February 26, but later the Agency moved it to March 6th.
At a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Rusyi 1 March, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that "without an answer things will remain. We just tolerate it will not."
According to Lukashenko, Russia delivered "from New Zealand or somewhere dry milk, were surplus and they start to hold us until sell the milk at high prices".
"Therefore, they do not like cheap milk," said the Belarusian leader.
"We'll give them their milk at the price that we believe is necessary and they let the Russians increase the price, if there is already the Russian people, Muscovites or Petersburgers, stuffed new Zealand milk", — quotes the President of goshenta "BelTA".
"To bring these arguments — the right of Mr. Lukashenko. But for its part the Rosselkhoznadzor had already outlined the reasons for the ban," said the RNS, the official representative of the Rosselkhoznadzor Julia Melano. According to her, statistics of violations "discouraging", and the violation of "leave no authority other choice."
In turn himself brown said that Belarus and Russia have found approaches to resolving issues on the supply of milk. According to the Vice Premier, the Belarusian side has held several meetings on the sites of the Ministry of agriculture and the Russian government on this issue.
"We have prepared a "road map", and now she is seen at the level of ministries of agriculture of Belarus and Russia on the withdrawal of those companies, which are restricted.
Instructed and supported at the level of the Russian government approved in March the Board of both ministries balances on milk. We are ready to subscribe to any offer at prices not below the Russian Federation", — said brown.
Thus he has noticed that last year in Russia was set to almost 4 million tons of milk and dairy products from Belarus. And, according to statistics, the prices of these products higher than similar Russian or from third countries. Accusations of dumping by the Belarusian side on this background does not accept, he said.
As specified in the official statement of the Russian authorities, a temporary embargo will affect "milk and cream pasteurized, sterilized and ultrapasteurization bulk; dry milk and cream, concentrated, canned and condensed; serum lactic liquid, concentrated, dry; concentrate whey and milk protein".
Rosselkhoznadzor emphasizes that the restrictions would persist "until the relevant negotiations with the veterinary service of the Republic of Belarus and resolution of the situation with the security of Belarusian goods".
A number of experts informed linked the embargo with the need to support domestic producers.
Russia imports large amounts of milk powder from Belarus. Within two months of incomplete 2018 Republic has twice reduced the export prices for skimmed milk powder, resulting in the Russian market, its price had dropped to values 2013. Domestic enterprises are unable to compete on price, eventually accumulated in the warehouses of the critical volumes of skimmed and whole milk. Largely because of these factors, the market was faced with the fact that in January-February fell sharply, the price of raw milk, explained Vadim Semikin from the Institute of conjuncture of agrarian market (IKAR).
However, the majority of respondents "Газетой.Ru" experts assess the prospects for a peaceful settlement of the conflict is quite high. Most likely the Rosselkhoznadzor in the nearest future already will limit restrictive measures a list of specific plants, leaving import at that level, so the demand for Russian dried milk have increased, and consumers do not suffer.
Meanwhile, the Minister of agriculture of the Russian Federation Alexander Tkachev in an interview with reporters on Thursday expressed hope that all issues related to the supply of the Russian market of Belarusian milk will be resolved through negotiations.
"Our Belarusian colleagues will supply milk to the Russian market, but we naturally speak and ask about the quality of milk. And that there were no re-export", — he said.
"I think we have to normalize these relations," added the Minister.
A complete ban if will act, will not last long, with high probability, the ban will eventually apply to those companies who regularly violate the requirements of the Russian legislation and failed to promptly correct the situation, said the General Director of Five Consulting Petrova Marina Petrova.
In the last three years the volume of milk production in Russia remains at the level of 30.8 million tonnes. Earlier, the Minister of agriculture talked about the fact that the deficit is around 7 million tons With most of the imports of dairy products accounted for Belarusian producers. Assessment Tkachev, this allows the Belarusians to earn annually more than $3 billion.
Speaking to the Federal Assembly on March 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin tasked Russian APK for 4 years to become a net exporter of food to the world market, and a number of food products, including milk, to reach full self-sufficiency.
Russia in the coming years will not be able to reach self-sufficiency in milk, as it is necessary to increase the dairy production to 50 million tons per year, which is 2.5 times the current levels, in line with the production figures of 1991, says Petrov.
However, to strive for this, of course, is because the dairy industry is, on the one hand, the "long investment," and on the other the prospect of development not only in domestic but also in foreign market.
As the Russian sugar industry develops international markets
Season 2016-2017 for the production of beet sugar was a record for Russia: it was produced 6.15 million tons of sugar. Such volumes much more demand in the domestic market, and the sugar industry for the first time in its three-century history, faced with the problem of periprotect beet sugar. The only solution to this problem — the access to the international market.
Over the last 20 years the productivity of sugar production in Russia increased significantly. Compared to sugar production in 1997, the current production volumes increased four times, but the biggest results in the history of the sugar industry has made in the season 2016-2017. While the country produced a record amount of sugar — 6.15 million tonnes for the first time not only to fully provide the domestic market, but also exceeding domestic consumption according to different estimates of 300-500 thousand tons In 2016, the gross harvest of sugar beet increased to 51.2 million tonnes, has also improved the quality of raw materials. According to data published by the Institute for agricultural market studies, the 2017-2018 season of the year was a record in the domestic sugar industry. It is expected that sugar production will reach a new historical maximum and will amount to 6.54 million tonnes.
Guideline for export
The increase in production has forced domestic manufacturers to actively explore the international market, strengthening the country's position as a supplier of sugar products. According to the expert-analytical center of agribusiness "AB-Center" in 2016 were exported 119.4 thousand tons of sugar. At that time, the rate of sugar export was the highest in the industry over the past five years. A more serious leap occurred a year later: according to the FCS of Russia and the statistics of the train, represented by Soyuzrossakhar, in 2017 the export of beet sugar from Russia increased five times compared with the year 2016 and has made more than 500 thousand tons worth over $200 million in December 2017 was shipped abroad 110 thousand tons of sugar, which is very close to the figure for all of 2016.
On the world market Russia is a significant exporter of molasses and the largest exporter of sugar beet granulated pulp. In 2016, the record exports of molasses amounted to 0.59 million tons, pulp — 1,21 million t.
Currently the major markets for Russian sugar are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan and Armenia. In the export of sugar from Russia in 2016 appeared areas such as Belarus and Serbia, was marked by trial shipments ship parties in Syria and container party in Egypt. In 2017 as the market opened in Uzbekistan, in the end he came in first place on volumes of purchases of Russian beet sugar.
According to experts, the volume of sugar production in Russia will continue to grow. So, many companies have increased production capacity in 2017 and plan to continue the modernisation programme in 2018. This dictates the necessity of expanding the volume and geography of exports. "In Russia the second consecutive year, the overproduction of sugar beets. The harvest this year, as in the past, amounted to 51.2 million tons In annual sugar production in the country by at least 600 thousand tons exceeds domestic consumption. Everyone understands the need to restore the balance of supply and demand. This can be done only by expanding exports,"— said Dmitry Vostrikov, CEO of the Association "Rusprodsoyuz".
However, Russian producers could face a number of difficulties along the way. One of the obstacles to the increase of sugar exports is logistics. "Established the necessary export quality logistics. And Russian logistics is not the most effective and cheaper,— explains Evgenie Ivanov, the leading expert of Institute of a conjuncture of the agrarian market.— We have a relatively high temporal, documentary and transportation costs. Therefore, the consumer of sugar, for example, from Cameroon more likely to choose a provider in Ukraine or in the EU. We need to expand our waterways and river routes in Russia, including for container shipments. All local markets in a wide range of Russian products to systematically and actively engage in: to participate in trends, exhibitions, to work out the logistics of supply".
This is evidenced Maderos Oskanov, managing Timashevsky sugar factory of concern "Pokrovsk": "In 2017, Russia sold almost the entire surplus in 2016 — 500 thousand tons of sugar. But selling more is very problematic, as our export terminals are not prepared to handle this amount of cargo. There is also the problem of monopolization in the transport sector. For example, in the port of Odessa transshipped tonne of sugar costs $20, and the only deepwater port in Russia, Novorossiysk — $40. This is a very high cost, but Russian manufacturers have no choice".
And this despite the fact that the producers in the South of the country has some advantage in logistics. According to Vadim Gamosa, expert industry Internet portal Sugar.ru sugar production in the South of Russia have the logistics a competitive advantage in the supply of sugar in Armenia, Azerbaijan and black sea ports for export by sea. Transport export components in these areas for plants located in the Krasnodar region, is lower than for the factories of Central Russia. Major sugar producers operating in the South of the country, is the "agro them. Tkachev" (four plants), Bank "Kubangres" (three works), "concern Pokrovsky" (three factories), group of companies "Dominants" (three plants), "prodimeks" (two plants, including the largest in the country "assumption sakharnik").
According to industry Internet portal Sugar.ru domestic players of the sugar market for export products faced not only with problems of poor logistics and high prices for the transshipment of sugar. Another serious problem is the low market price of sugar on the world market, in which the Russian producer becomes competitive in export price of about 22 rubles/kg. However, in 2017, the sugar in the domestic market was worth 23-26 RUB./kg. in addition, experts say that not all Russian sugar meets international quality standards. So, an internationally recognized standard has sugar color 45 ICUMSA (measure of the degree of coloration of the sugar solution due to the presence of pigments of sugar production in the sugar crystals.— Approx. ed), in Russia is 60; there are other quality parameters on which our sugar does not always correspond to world level. To solve this problem, according to experts, it is necessary to modernize technological lines production of sugar.
The government will support exporters
In December 2017 the Ministry of agriculture order No. 524, approved the programme for the expansion of sugar exports. Measures aimed at expansion of geography of export deliveries of sugar and by-products of sugar production.
The program adopted by the Ministry of agriculture, suggests that by 2020 will be signed cooperation agreements with the Philippines, China, Japan, Vietnam, Algeria and Morocco.
According to experts, new markets, especially large, is good, but it is not clear whether the new export program to solve other problems — poorly developed logistics, high cost of handling sugar. In addition, to be successful on the world market, domestic manufacturers need to find ways to reduce the cost of sugar production, and to bring its quality up to international standards. And this can only be done through an ambitious program of modernization of production capacities. "Plants need to reduce costs. Will be able to achieve the cost of sugar to 22 RUB — and you are the king in foreign markets",— said Maderos Oskanov.
Despite all the difficulties, according to forecasts, in season 2017-2018 year Russia can export from 700 thousand to 1 million tons of sugar, surpassing in foreign markets traditional competitors — Ukraine, Belarus and Brazil.
February 26 in the Ministry of agriculture of Russia held a meeting with heads of industry associations and leading enterprises of the sugar processing industry. The event was held by the Director of the Department of food and processing industry Eugene Akhpashev.
The main topic of discussion was the desirability of including sugar in the list of goods that cannot be placed under the customs procedure of free customs zone and "free warehouse". Eurasian intergovernmental Council requested the member States of the EEU to consider the proposal after the 2 February meeting of the Council in Almaty presented the Report of the EEC's application of tariff preferences for sugar in the EEC and their impact on the sugar market.
Reporting on the situation in the sugar market and formed the opinion of the branch unions in relation to the instructions of the Board of the EEU, Chairman of the management Board of "Soyuzrossakhar" Andrey Bodin reported that the volume of sugar production in Russia for the second year greatly exceeds the volume of consumption: according to experts, the excess is about 800 thousand tons. Inventories of sugar at the beginning of 2018 has reached a historic high, amounting to over 5 million tons, 0.5 million tons more than the same period last year.
Accordingly, exports for the year increased 5 – fold to 540 thousand tons, it is also a historical maximum. The main exporting country of sugar is Kazakhstan there last year it was delivered to 122 thousand tons.
However, export of sugar-containing products from Kazakhstan in the EEU countries in the period 2011-2017 increased 9 times and maybe at the end of last year to reach more than 170 thousand tons. This is due to the preferences provided by the Kazakh enterprises – their total volume exceeded 500 million U.S. dollars. For 7 years, Kazakhstan imported without payment of duties 2.6 million tons of sugar and raw sugar.
The Russian Federation has submitted to the EEC a proposal for allocation of sugar to the goods not be placed under the customs procedure of free customs zone and the goods in respect of which no customs procedure is applied "free warehouse". This, according to the sectoral managers, will help to equalize economic conditions within the EEU will continue to work on the removal of restrictions in the countries-importers of Russian sugar, will contribute to the development of agricultural production of sugar beet and increase the export potential of the country.
The Commission prepared a draft decision of the EEC Council on withdrawal of sugar from free trade regime, from the regime of free economic zones and free warehouse. Public discussion of the project started on 7 February in an electronic format, the market participants have to announce before 9 March.
Summarizing the discussion, Evgeny Akhpashev stated unanimous support by the Ministry of agriculture of Russia, trade unions and industrial consumers of sugar of the position on the advisability of the inclusion of sugar to goods not subject to customs procedure of free customs zone and "free warehouse".
"We need to convey to the Eurasian economic Commission for a consolidated opinion of the Russian side on the withdrawal of sugar from the regime of free economic zones and free warehouses as appropriate and fair measure of market regulation and to hold a further meeting on measures to stabilize and further development of the sugar market in Russia", - said Eugene Akhpashev.
The ban on Belarusian milk, cream (dry and condensed), serum, its concentrate and milk protein will take effect from 6 March. Previously, the Rosselkhoznadzor is planning to ban dairy products from Belarus from February 26. The experts commented on the situation
Artyom Belov, Executive Director of the National Union of milk producers:
– Close not the whole of Belarus – close a particular company on certain items. To resolve all comments. I don't think it will seriously affect the Russian market.
This is done in the interests of consumers. The Rosselkhoznadzor conducted a verification audit of the Belarusian companies also carried out the inspection of goods at the border, and there is no reason not to trust the data of the Rosselkhoznadzor. The results of the inspections and accepted the limitations. For each identified case of violation of sanitary norms issued injunction or the company closes. They are closed on a regular basis, after which fulfill all the requirements and then re-open. This is absolutely normal practice. Once they eliminated the violations, which found the Rosselkhoznadzor, all will be restored in the same volume.
The ban was not good for the final consumer is not affected. In Russia in recent times well developed raw material base, raw milk have enough. Effectively operate processing plants. Warehouses good stocks of dry milk, butter, cheese and whole milk products.
Vadim Semikin, chief expert on dairy products of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR):
– The prohibition imposed on milk powder and whey, so let's talk on this side.
Our market is heavily dependent on imports. Russia imports huge amounts of milk powder from Belarus, close to the level of gross production in the country. Import SOM (dry and freeze-dried skimmed milk – approx. ed.) and CMS (dried whole milk) to Russia from Belarus in 2016 amounted to 140 thousand tons, in 2017 – 120 thousand tons. Import whey in 2016 – 87 thousand tons, in 2017 – 60 thousand tons.
Within two months of incomplete 2018 Belarus has twice reduced the export prices of CATFISH, resulting in the Russian market, its price had dropped to values 2013. Domestic enterprises are unable to compete on price, resulting in accumulated in the warehouses of the critical volumes of SMP and WMP. Largely because of these factors, the market was faced with the fact that in January-February fell sharply, the price of raw milk.
In my opinion, a step of Rosselkhoznadzor for the protection of the milk market is timely and correct. The restriction of supplies will allow realization of accumulated stocks and to keep commodity prices from further decline, which for this time of year is not typical.
Marina Petrova, Director General, Petrova Five Consulting:
– Russia is the largest importer maloletki products, and our key supplier after the embargo was Belarus. The share of Belarusian export of milk powder is 98% of the total imports of dry whey is 50% cream – 95%, butter – 74%, cheese 80%, and condensed milk – 100%. Despite such heavy dependence, the dynamics of imports of dairy products in 2013 shows a decline of supply in many segments.
Thus, the imports of skimmed milk powder from Belarus in 2017 amounted to 86 thousand tons, which is 4% less than the same indicator for 2013 (92 thousand tons). While imports of whole dry whey decreased by 57% – from 40 thousand tons in 2013 to 17 thousand tonnes in 2017. Supplies of dry whey decreased by 19%, from 115 thousand tons in 2013 to 93 thousand tons in 2017, and cheese by 27%, from 39 thousand tonnes in 2013 to 29 thousand tons in 2017.
The future limitation in the supply of dairy products from Belarus due primarily to failure to comply with quality control and regulations regulated by the Rosselkhoznadzor, as a result through the Belarusian border to the Russian market gets the goods non-conforming to Russian safety requirements. Belarusian manufacturers have previously received a warning about the possibility of introducing restrictions in the case of non-compliance with prescribed standards, but in the long unwillingness of the Belarusian side to implement them contributed to making the decision. Played a role, and a large amount of powdered milk and concentrates, accumulated at the Russian manufacturers, the prices of which are 7-10% higher than Belarusian.
In the short term, the termination of the supply will serve as an important measure to ensure the security, will enable Russian producers to dispose of surplus milk powder and whey, but will also stabilize raw milk prices. However, in the case of a long-term ban on Russian market expects a new wave of falsification and 40% increase in prices for dairy products.
Rosselkhoznadzor has announced that from February 26 suspend delivery to Russia of milk and other dairy products manufactured in Belarus.
A list of products that fall under the ban, looks impressive, although TASS with reference to the press service of the Ministry said that packaged milk and dairy products restrictions will not affect.
The Ministry of agriculture of Belarus stated that they do not know the reasons for the Russian embargo.
According to Rosselkhoznadzor, the ban stems from "the continuing intake of unsafe dairy products" from a neighboring state.
"Any other country with this number of detections, we would have closed completely and permanently, but Belarus is, first, a brotherly country, and secondly, within the EAEU, so we are surprisingly soft measures <...> applied" - said the TV channel "Russia 24" Deputy Minister Nikolai Vlasov.
Experts interviewed by the Russian service Bi-bi-si, consider that the restrictions could be associated not so much with identified disabilities as the need to protect domestic producers in the conditions of an oversupplied market.
In 2017 Belarus has reduced the supply of certain categories of dairy products to Russia, such as milk powder, however, the Russian manufacturers in 2017 has increased the volume of its production and the market formed a large inventory, said bi-Bi-si "the center for the study of milk market".
"A temporary ban on the import of Belarusian products will help to remove the excess milk from the market, which should boost prices for raw milk. This will help Russian producers and, of course, the Russian processors of milk, too, from this prohibition must win the competition from the part of Belarusians will temporarily disappear," according to the center.
At the same time, pay attention to the experts, the ban did not get cheese, although the cheese market is now also overstocked, including for the Belarusian delivery.
The current ban will greatly affect traders, who were engaged in the supply of milk powder from Belarus to the Russian market, explained in the center.
"In General, the decision on a ban will have a positive impact on the Russian dairy market, however, the downside is that the market problem in this case is actually resolved in the manual mode," conclude the experts.
According to estimates, "Center for the study of milk market", in 2016 Russia has actually provided themselves with raw milk at 73.3 per cent. The data for 2017 is still being collected and analyzed.
The Director General of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko also drew attention to the glut in the Russian dairy market.
"We are in lower prices for raw milk in the country, unusual for this period, due to the fact that we have some overstock showed up on our market. Therefore, the restriction of supplies from Belarus, with incomplete and partial, may in some way contribute to ensuring that this problem will be mitigated" - the expert believes.
Overstock, he said, is due to relatively strong growth in Russian production and the strengthening of the ruble, which leads to an increase in imports, despite the fact that effective demand is not growing.
Research company "Tekart" finalized the fourth version of the report about the marketing research of the Russian market of private nursing homes.
At the moment there is information about private nursing homes operating in 36 regions of the country. A large number of institutions located in Moscow and Moscow region, St.-Petersburg and Leningrad region, and also in Sverdlovsk region.
6.1% average rate per night ranges from 1 000 to 3 000 rubles. Elite nursing homes in which the rate exceeds 3 000 RUB., on the market there are only 2.1%.
In the updated report provides updated information about the market, including quantitative indicators for 2016-2017, the actual price and competitive analysis, adjusted the forecast of development of Russian market of private nursing homes up to 2022.
In the process of updating the report company "Tekart" was updated and expanded database of private nursing homes, contains information on 328 companies.
Learn more about the marketing research "Market of private nursing homes"
The experience of the research company "Tekart" in the field "Services"
Russian #market "smart" insurance is in its infancy. According to J'son & Partners Consulting by the end of 2017, the penetration of "smart" insurance Avtokasko in Russia amounted to no more than 3% (number of valid insurance policies of hull), the main growth segment, UBI is expected after 2018 based on the use of embedded telematics solutions "ERA-GLONASS" and product manufacturers.
Presentation of Alexander Gerasimov, Head of the it Department and cloud services, J'son & Partners Consulting
Joint event J'son & Partners, RII MICEX and NP Russof.
November 22, 2017, Moscow
Why is the title of our presentation? We tried to grasp the immensity, therefore, concentrated not on the whole market, but only the part that we consider most promising is the sector of corporate applications.
We believe that there are essential preconditions to believe that this part of the market IT can replicate the success that has come to the cellular market in the late nineties – early two thousandth. When first it was such a relatively small amount for services and equipment was available not very many. And then the market started to grow rapidly, became a mass, which led to the emergence of public companies, to increase the capitalization and the overall success.
What are the features of this study? First, goal. Here we wanted to take the two sides, yet know little about each other enough and trust each other. On the one hand, it's IT companies and on the other hand, potential investors in it. On the one hand, we wanted to talk to IT companies about what opportunities exist now and what new opportunities for attracting external funding open. On the other hand, to tell potential investors about how it makes sense to look at these companies because that look significantly different from what used to look investors for those assets that are now traded primarily on the stock exchanges.
Analysts of research company "Tekart" provide the Customer with the results of large-scale research project on Russian groats market in the B2B segment.
The peculiarity of the conducted research was the high degree of market segmentation and granularity of the obtained data.
In particular, it was highlighted in nine of the analyzed segments, cereals: buckwheat, rice, barley, millet and semolina grits, oatmeal, peas, lentils, beans. The analysis was conducted in the context of the B2B segment. Was determined the total consumption of the focal cereals, including industrial consumers (ready-made porridge and side dishes, canned food, pet food, breads, prepared foods, etc.), the Federal consumers (FSIN, the Russian Army), HoReCa segment and other consumers (including kindergartens, schools, hospitals) in the context of each type of grain.
The evaluation of the research company "Tekart", the most capacious segment in terms of consumption , both in volume and in value terms, the Russian market is rice cereal, the three leaders stuck also buckwheat and oatmeal. The most capacious B2B segment in terms of regions, the consumers are industrial companies.
The report provides historical data (2012-2016), assessment of current indicators and forecast estimates up to 2020.
In the framework of the conducted research was identified not only the key market data for each of the segments of Cereals, but also analyzed an array of additional information. In particular, on the basis of a compiled database of consumers of cereals was carried out deep surveys of companies, the peculiarities of demand, consumer requirements to quality of cereals and packaging, selection criteria, and current degree of satisfaction with suppliers, etc.
Additional information about the marketing research of Russian market of groats in the B2B segment
All the work of the research company "Tekart" in "Food industry and agriculture"
The import must not block the demand for domestic raw milk, I am sure the Prime Minister
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev will charge to understand the situation with the purchase of dairy plants of milk powder to the detriment of domestic producers. The head of government said in response to the request of the President of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov during the meeting with the governors in Sochi. Minnikhanov complained to the head of the Cabinet, that this year, raw milk has ceased to be exported from the Republic, and the price compared to last year dropped by 5-8 rubles/kg. "dairies bought milk powder, restore it, produce products. Without your intervention, this topic is probably not solved. If we will facilitate the launch of milk powder and the production of products, it will result in serious losses," — said Minnikhanov.
Medvedev promised to instruct "this out". "Yes, we have a common market with our friends, partners of the Eurasian Union. Moreover, we cannot limit the power of the signed agreement. But ultimately, we must think about our citizens", — said Medvedev (excerpt from the transcript of the meeting). He stressed that the country does not need economic principles, which blocked the supply of normal milk and opening the market to dry.
Tatarstan is a leader among Russian regions for the production of raw milk: according to Rosstat, in 2017, the gross yield in the country amounted to 1.8 million tonnes, which is 2.7% more 2016. However, on Wednesday the head of the Tatarstan Ministry of agriculture Marat Akhmetov said that due to the artificial glut of the dairy market in raw materials was unclaimed. "Because of the immense importation of imported milk powder and other dairy products has sharply reduced the demand for Russian milk as a whole," he said at the Collegium of the Ministry of agriculture of the Republic on February 14. As a result, according to the regional agricultural Department, the price of raw milk has increased from 27.9 to 22.6 RUB RUB. per kg. of the Tatarstan administration of the FAS, in turn, has announced the initiation of Antimonopoly proceedings against 10 milk traders in the region for collusion in the procurement of raw materials.
In addition to Tatarstan decline in prices for raw materials concerned and the producers of Perm region. Previously, the region's refiners have reduced the purchase price of 1 RUB., and now demanded the reduction for another 3 RUB. as a result, according to "Kommersant", the producers are going to address with a collective letter to the Governor with a request to take measures to support the industry. In Udmurtia, where the purchase price of raw milk was also below the national average, the government has already promised the producers a subsidy of 200 million rubles.
The question of the balance of production and imports and associated price changes, rose at the Congress of the National Union of milk producers ("Soyuzmoloko") on 6 February. Then the head of the Ministry Alexander Tkachev said that the price of milk in Belarus fell by 40% to 130 RUB/kg. "We build 170 [RUB. per kg] - lower does not work, below is a loss. It is clear that for many processors the best of the milk powder to make cheese product, than to buy raw milk for 25 rubles." — said Tkachev. However, Russia on the issue "constructive work with the Belarusian colleagues," and discusses the balance of supply and demand, said Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich.
At the same time, Dvorkovich called on Belarus to actively deal with re-export of dairy products produced in other countries. "I mean the Baltic States, Ukraine and other countries in which it is manufactured and delivered to us milk. The part of the parties stops part still gets to our market and this adversely affects the balance of production and consumption," said Dvorkovich. Tkachev estimated supply volume "grey" import of milk and adulteration of 3 million tons in terms of milk. "Of course, it comes at a lower price and a collapsing market. How to resist them, lower the price, it affects the economy of costs" — said Tkachev. For this purpose, according to him, in Russia from July 1, introduced a mandatory electronic veterinary certification (EMU), which will allow to exclude the re-export and make the market transparent. At the end of 2017, Rosselkhoznadzor announced the intention to provide access to the system EMU "mercury" and Belarus.
According to the agriculture Ministry, the purchase price of raw milk from farmers in December 2017 increased by 4.6% relative to December 2016 and $ 24,98 roubles/kg. However, by 8 February, the price of agricultural producers of raw milk in Russia on average was 24,16 RUB/kg, which is 2.3% less than the end of December 2017. In the Udmurt Republic the decline in prices was 17.8% (up 20.5 rubles/kg), in the Altai region was 16.8% (up to 20.5 rubles/kg), in the Chuvash Republic — 14.2 percent (to 18.98 RUB/kg). In Tatarstan the prices compared to the end of December 2016 fell by 8.1% to 22.6 RUB/kg. the Import of dry and condensed milk in January-November 2017 rose 3.6% to 221.6 thousand tons, of which 78% was accounted for by supplies from Belarus.
Production of raw milk in all farms in Russia in 2017 year showed a growth of 1.2% to 31.1 million tonnes, Half of this amount to 15.6 million tons — fell on the farmers, where the production increased by 3.8%, 2.4 million tons obtained in the peasant (farmer) farms (plus 7.8 percent). However, the growth of commodity production left in product inventory, which for the year increased by 800 thousand tons to 1.3 million tons in terms of raw milk, said the General Director of IKAR Dmitry Rylko at the IX international conference "Where the margin". Including in the segment of milk powder the increase in reserves by 2.5 times exceeded the volume of product release. If you do not solve the issue of growth stocks, according to the calculations of IKAR, raw milk by mid-summer it may be cheaper to 20.8 rubles/kg.
THE DECLINE IN CONSUMER ACTIVITY HAD A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON SOUTHERN PRODUCERS OF MEAT. ANIMAL TEETERING ON THE VERGE OF PROFITABILITY, AND MEAT PROCESSING IS CONCENTRATED ON THE SEMI-FINISHED PRODUCTS
Investment projects on construction and modernization of the meat processing complexes in the southern Federal district — a case study "explosive" growth. Despite the fact that the number South of the project cost from 300 million rubles under implementation, was reduced in our ranking from 285 to 234, the number of projects in the meat industry have remained the same (8 projects), but their cost has grown in 1,4 times — to 40,21 million. Ambitious plans investors so far, however, did not correlate with the reality of production and consumption is not growing at a fast pace.
According to the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR), the total meat production for slaughter in Russia in 2017 rose 4.8% to 2016, reaching 10.2 million tons. In the southern production capacity is estimated at the level of the last year — 1.4 million tons. According to the Ministry of agriculture and processing industry of Krasnodar Krai, the Kuban in 2017 produced 502,4 thousand tons of meat of cattle and poultry in live weight, which is 0.5% higher than in 2016. The production structure was as follows: poultry — 67%, cattle — 16,9 %, pigs for 16%, sheep and goats — 0.1 percent. Donskoy breeders also managed to stay afloat: for the second consecutive year the Rostov region has the volume of meat production in carcass weight at the level of USD 362.5 thousand tons. In 2018 it is planned to produce 411 thousand tons, noted in the regional Ministry of agriculture. The share of the two actors in the overall production of meat in the southern Federal district — more than 60%.
Prices rushed down
As for commodity prices, all of last year she fell. So, the negative dynamics of the prices for chicken tied to overproduction. In Russia, the volume of chicken produced last year amounted to 4.9 million tons in slaughter weight. High performance was observed at the end of 2016, at this time began the decline in average prices, says Anna Kudryakova, market expert meat IKAR.
"In 2017 the situation with pricing only worsened, and by the end of December, the value of the carcass broiler chicken were lower than last year by 22.2 percent. In January-February 2018 is expected to remain a negative price movements. Perhaps lower prices for carcass broiler for another three to five rubles," — says Ms. Kudryakova.
Experts say that the low prices of poultry affect the profitability of domestic poultry and can lead to withdrawal from the market of many players. If this happens, the trend to lowering prices will reverse.
According to the head of the GC "Evrodon" Vadim Vaneeva, if the Turkey will continue to fall in price, producing it is simply unprofitable.
""Chicken" segment already formed and the competition there is mostly price. The growth of the proposals are not balanced with existing demand and consumer opportunities. The network and producers of dumping, but that does not help the situation negatively affects the development of the whole industry will rasskazyvayut van. The price of the meat turkeys, and ducks also fall, as in most types of meat. However, Turkey is not a chicken. Chicken raising 30 days and the Turkey for 140 days. The cost of production is much higher Turkey production chicken".
Among the positive national trends 2017 — growth in pork production. Although the pace was not as impressive as in 2016: 6% to 13%. According to IKAR, the sharp UPS and downs that were previously inherent in the pork market in 2017 was much less. The maximum price of pork reached 165-168 rubles per kg, while in 2016 — 5-10 rubles above. The fall was particularly marked glut in the pork market, which was accompanied by low purchasing activity.
"At the end of 2017 reported a significant decrease in the price of pork, is not peculiar to the pre-holiday period. For example, if the average price per kilogram of pork in live weight over the past year amounted to 95 rubles, excluding VAT, in December it dropped to 84 rubles per kilogram. I believe that this situation could be affected by the reduction in feed costs due to lower purchase prices", — says Evgeny Ivanov, General Director of "Myasokombinat ":"".
By the way, on the background of the priority program of development of domestic consumption of livestock feed crops growing. According to the National Union of grain producers, if last season the need for feed grains reached 39 million tons in the current year it could reach 40 million tons. Note that since the beginning of this agricultural year in the southern regions of the country on the backdrop of strong demand not only for food, but also forage group grain prices are rising. So, more than actively varied the price of feed barley, which since the beginning of the season increased by more than 1,500 rubles per ton. This increase was facilitated by the activity of consumers in the domestic market and export-oriented organizations, which provided positive dynamics of discharge of barley compared to last year abroad almost doubled, says the National Union of grain producers.
The beef market is very different from pork and poultry experiencing shock from the sudden development of production. The volume of beef produced in the country, at the end of 2017, slightly lower than in 2016 — 1%. The number of cattle also does not have significant changes in relation to period of play the year before, according to IKAR.
"Due to the fact that the market is not observed surplus of meat, there is the influence of external factors. Thus, interruptions in the supply of beef from Belarus create shortages in some regions and have an impact on domestic prices, and a ban on the supply of beef from Brazil, who "thundered" in the market at the end of the year, dramatically increased the cost of lump beef — adds Anna Kudryakova. — In the new year of 2018, the market will adapt to the new realities associated with the reduction of imports. Will test for "vitality" maximum prices".
It is noteworthy that the growth of domestic production of poultry and pork observed in the past year, leaves little room for imports. However, the share of imported beef is still high — almost 50%. The main suppliers of the EU are Brazil, Paraguay and Belarus. However, some companies are forced every year to increase the proportion of imported raw materials. So, open company "the Rostov sausage factory — Tavr" in 2017 has bought from Belarus 709 tons of beef, 29% more than in 2016.
Last year we continued the development of export directions of implementation of poultry and pork. For example, exports of poultry increased by more than 40%, and pork by 20% relative to 2016. The main direction of exports of pork is Hong Kong — more than 84%, the supply of birds is almost evenly distributed on two main areas, the Ukraine and Vietnam, analysts said ICARUS.
"Last year's results give reason to believe that the task of ensuring food security in the country is solved. In addition, Russia continues to develop foreign markets", — said the head of Executive Committee of National meat Association Sergey Yushin. According to preliminary estimates, in 2017 we exported 250 thousand tons of meat and meat products in almost 40 countries. The geography is gradually expanding.
According to Sergei Yushin, the main problem for the industry remains bleak, the situation of animal diseases. This is especially true of the South. So, Krasnodar region was greatly reduced the number of pigs due to ASF, and in the Rostov region avian influenza paralyzed the production of "Evrodon".
Hooked on dumplings
Speaking about the impact of prices on the meat processing industry in the South, market players noted that the low cost of meat had a negative impact on the consumption of meat products and thus on their production. In General, the market of sausage according to preliminary results 2017 demonstrated fall in the range of 4.5% relative to 2016.
In the Rostov region last year produced 46 thousand tons of sausages, which is 7% lower than in 2016. Leading position in the manufacture of sausage products remain for the company "the Rostov sausage factory — Tavr", the company produces over 75% of the regional volume.
"In 2017, "T" has produced more than 42 thousand tons of finished products. In General, we were able to keep production and sales at the market level. In the current environment to "Brand" the decline in the group cooked sausages on the background of significant growth in the group of raw sausages and increase in the group cooked and smoked sausages" — said the press service of OOO "Rostov sausage factory — Tavr".
Only in the meat industry don there are about 20 large and medium-sized enterprises facilities, which amount to 336 thousand tons, including sausages and semi — finished products- 74 thousand tons, processing of beef — 48 thousand tons, pork — 19 thousand tons, poultry — 195 thousand tons. Capacity utilization in 2017 amounted to 53%, as reported in the don Ministry of agriculture. In addition, in the Rostov region is located 95 slaughterhouses, with an average download of 68%.
In Krasnodar Krai the production of meat products involved about 300 companies, including 9 large and medium meat processing plants. Technical and technological capacity allows to process per year about 465 thousand tons of cattle and poultry in live weight. The industry employs more than 4.5 thousand people. The range of products exceeding 500 items. Estimated for 2017 enterprises of the industry produced 212 thousand tons of meat and by-products (growth rate by 2016 — 11%), animal edible fats — 3 thousand tons, a growth of 11%. As for the sausages, they produced 60 thousand tons, and of meat products — 61 thousand tons.
According to the Cuban Ministry of agriculture and processing industry, last year actively developed the small plant for slaughter and processing of meat raw materials. Their productive capacity for processing is of the order of 80 thousand tons per year of raw materials in live weight. In the regional production of meat and offal small workshops occupy 70% of total production volumes.
As tell in the company "Meat":" a", the volume of consumption of sausage products in Russia as a whole continues to fall, due to the decrease in real incomes. The trend of consumer behavior becomes a commitment to quality and safety.
Another trend established a few years ago — the fall in domestic demand for high-margin, premium meat products and increased demand for semi-finished products.
For example, in 2017 the volume of production of sausage products of meat factory "Kanev" increased by 10 %, and of semi — finished products by 20% on the volume in 2016. Download production increased but did not reach their maximum values.
"Semi group showed in 2017 good growth; I am confident that she will continue this course in the current year. There will grow the category of instant food products in marinade, chilled meat products," — said Eugene Ivanov.
The similar situation developed in the Rostov plant "Brands". Recently, the company is actively increasing in processed meat: to develop sales of dumplings, sausages for frying — kupaty. Total sales of semi-finished products is fixed at 30%. Only in the Rostov region of production of meat products for 2017 increased by 18%, amounting to 18.5 thousand tons.
Year trend in the decline of consumption of sausages continues, as trying to save money, consumers choose stores with low prices, looking for the goods on special, adhere to the established list of products, use discount coupons, buying goods in large packages, say in OOO "Rostov sausage factory — Tavr".
"The share of bromopride increased from 8.1 percent in 2011 to 21.3 percent in 2017, also increased the size of discounts: a price reduction of 10-15 percent are interested, increasingly, consumers are looking for goods at a discount of 20-40%. The main factor of consumer choice is based on the ratio of price and quality, so the consumer will choose the middle price segment, which price, in the holding of shares, will be artificially moved to the economy segment," believe in "the Brand".
Defrost market will start in 2018
"The meat processing market is correlated with GDP and, in accordance with the optimistic forecasts of the government of the Russian Federation for its growth of 1.7 percent is to be expected and growth of our market. Your contribution to the recovery of purchasing power can make discussing raising the salaries of state employees, — says Evgeny Ivanov. — However, suggest that this growth will affect only the market of chilled meat and semi-finished products. Sausage segment will continue to stagnate, and the growth of volumes of production of individual producers will be achieved only through the redistribution of market the fierce competition between the existing parties".
In 2018, the National meat Association predict growth of pork production in Russia for at least 3%. The trend will continue for the displacement of imported pork and the increase in export deliveries. Reducing the cost of pork by 20% and, as a consequence, the increase in consumer demand will encourage investors to invest billions of dollars in investment in pig farming. In poultry production today is not to increase the volume. At the beginning of year Russia can become a net exporter of poultry meat.
Optimistic analysts are pushing myasoproizvoditeley to create new projects. For example, in the Stavropol region discussed the creation of a cluster for the production of lamb group of companies "Damate" Naum Babaev (one of the largest producers of turkeys in Russia). "Damate" plans to produce up to 11 thousand tons of mutton a year.
It is noteworthy that in the summer of 2017 about the plans for the construction of a cluster of meat for production of mutton was told by the founder of "Eurodon" Vadim Vaneev. Industrial production of lamb is to begin in the Rostov and Tver regions. To bring the idea to life can take about two years, the design capacity of the Rostov region should reach 15 thousand tons deadweight.
"Lamb is one of those areas that is in need of modernization, — said Sergey Yushin. — A large portion of the population of small cattle is actually in the "gray" area. Vets can't even accurately say how many goals annually transported from one area of the country to another. Industrial cutting of mutton is extremely rare. But it needs modern retail, HoReCa segment. Therefore, the claimed "Evrodon" and "Damate" projects for the production of mutton will help legalize the market."
A few years ago it seemed that canadian farmers possessed only one – the cultivation of peas and ways to expedite the receipt of his harvest. The current widespread rejection of this culture causes many confusion. However, the logic of action of the farmers is understandable
According to the Ministry of agriculture of Canada, the legumes in the country will probably fall to 7-year low this spring, in particular the area of lentil will decrease by 27 %. The crops will be reduced as farmers change of legumes on wheat and canola.
This is a classic boom and bust. Starting in 2014, production of peas and lentils has increased throughout the country amid growing demand for vegetarian products, and farmers took advantage of record prices for legumes. This excitement quickly led to a global glut and falling prices. Currently, countries such as India, the world's largest consumer, impose protective tariffs on imports to protect its market and to support domestic producers.
"It is not easy to continue to engage in the production, knowing that the yield will not be as high. It seems that the farmers of our region have decided to reshuffle legumes for grain and canola - is the decision of the majority," the producer says Morgan Nunweiler, who plans to cut his crops lentil, 50% in favor of wheat on his farm with an area of 3,000 acres near Rosetown, Saskatchewan.
Prices for some grades of large green lentils from November fell by 34 %, and red lentils in mid-February to 16.5 canadian cents per pound. For comparison, the canola futures remain unchanged from November 30, while wheat on the stock exchange in Chicago grew by more than 8 %.
The growth of the supply of legumes to the global market, prices are constantly falling on the background of narrowing export prospects. In December 2017 India imposed a 30 percent duty on import of chickpeas and lentils. This month a tax on chickpeas was increased to 40 %. The country recorded its highest yield and she is trying to use its own excess stock.
"After India did what they did, the market frankly shocked and farmers are quick to react to the incident," said Corey Lassen, Chairman of the Board of Saskatchewan Pulse Growers.
Meanwhile, export demand for canola from countries such as China, Mexico and Japan, remains strong, and additional soybean acres will not result in excessive oversupply, said Chuck Penner, owner of LeftField Commodity Research in Winnipeg, Manitoba.
"Area expansion will raise the production of oilseeds at record high levels," the report says agriculture and agri-food industry in Canada.
We will remind, from-for high yields of lentils and chickpeas these cultures actively buying traders of neighboring countries. Also Kazakhstan in the season-2017 has become a world leader in the production of lentils, overtaking the former leader of Canada. (Source: bloomberg.com)