Moscow, 3 Aug - "to Lead.Economy." Russia from January till may of current year has increased export of agricultural products to $9.5 billion, more than 2017 for the period at $2.2 billion, or 29.2%, reported today the Ministry of agriculture.
The main exported products, as in the previous year, steel grains, fish and seafood, and products of oil and fat industry.
Wheat exports for this period amounted to 17.1 million tonnes worth $3.1 billion, exceeding the indicators 2017 1.7%, or $1.3 billion, the Main importer of Russian wheat was Egypt, which increased the volume of purchases by 22.2%, to 4.3 million tons.
2.4 times increase in procurement of wheat from Turkey (2 million tons), 3.4 times from Latvia (up to 539 thousand tonnes), more than 19-fold increase procurement from Vietnam (to 1.66 million tons).
Soybean oil exports rose 7.3% to 242 thousand tonnes, rapeseed oil – 42% to 135,7 thousand tons, soybeans – 2.5% to 509 thousand tons.
Continued to develop emerging in 2017, the trend of increasing exports of chocolate confectionery products in January-may, exported 78 thousand tons in the amount of $222 million, which is more than in the same period of 2017 to 30.1% (an increase of 26.5% in cash). Leaders in import of chocolate confectionery products of the Russian production are Kazakhstan, which accounted for 20.6% of Russian exports to Belarus, which accounted for 10,9% of Russian exports, China, which accounted for 11.4% of Russian exports.
Russia in 2018 will increase exports of agricultural products by 16.9% to $24.2 billion compared with $20.7 billion in 2017, predicted earlier the Ministry of agriculture. But by 2025, the Russian agricultural industry can increase exports to $45 billion.
As reported "Vesti.Economy," the export of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials from Russia to 2017 has increased by 21.1% compared to the previous year and amounted to $20.7 billion, the Share of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in total exports last year amounted to 5.8%. One third of food exports accounted for grain and products of milling industry. 75% of the export of foodstuffs in terms of value ($15.9 billion) was in foreign countries. The largest buyers of products of the Russian agriculture in the last year were Egypt ($1.78 bn), Turkey ($1.78 bn), China ($1.77 billion) and South Korea ($1.46 billion).
High rates persist due to the early start of harvesting and a large rolling stocks
In July 2018, Russia may export 3.1 million tonnes or more of grain. That's at least 400 thousand tonnes more than the record for that month index established last year. This was reported by "the Agroinvestor" head of the analytical center of "Rusagrotrans" Igor Pavensky. According to specified data, including the export of wheat may be about 2 million tons, barley — 700-750 thousand tons, corn — 350 thousand tons
In the beginning of the month forecast centre was at the level of July last season was 2.7 million tonnes. "However, the current performance of the shipment at the deep-water port indicate the growth of exports for July last year," said Pavensky. The intensification of exports this month, according to experts, associated with high reserves after record harvest of grain last season, and a record pace of harvest in the southern regions.
"Sovekon" estimates grain exports in July are even higher — at the level of 3.3 million tonnes, including 2.2 million MT of wheat. "The high pace of exports associated with the early start of harvest, which is ahead of average rates for two weeks", — explained analysts of the center. Against the background of strong demand the average export price of Russian wheat in the past week, according to "SovEcon" increased by $1.5 to $198/ton (FOB deep-sea ports, 12.5% protein). "The prices for Russian wheat are tightened to the prices of supplies from other regions", — stated in the message. The Ministry of agriculture on 12 July recorded a growth of export prices for Russian wheat of the 4th class $1 to $200/t.
In the coming months, the export of grain will also go quickly, Pavensky predicts. "In the next few months of the season exports will probably remain at or slightly below last year due to relatively high export prices, which we expect will exceed last year's levels, perhaps by $15-20/MT on expectations for the first time in six seasons, falling global production and stocks of wheat," Pavensky said. The positive impact on the growth of shipments have increased opportunities infrastructure after the previous season, when the monthly Russian exporters set record after record. According to the operative data of the FCS last season in 2017/18, Russia exported 52.4 million tons of grain agricultural crops, which is 47 per cent higher than in the last agricultural year and was a record figure for the country. Including shipment of wheat for the season increased by 1.5 times to 40.4 million tonnes, barley — doubled to 5.8 million tonnes, maize — 11% to 5.8 million tonnes In the first 11 days of the new season shipments abroad increased compared with the same period last year by 1.9% to 1.1 mln tons, including wheat exports grew by 2.7% to 676 thousand tonnes, barley — 2.7% to 281 thousand tons, corn — declined by 42 per cent to 125 thousand tons. according to "Sovekon" high export rates at the start of the season means high competition between exporters, which should be to support prices on the domestic market.
Just a new season-2018/19 grain exports from Russia will be 41-43 million tons, predicts the analytical center of "Rusagrotrans". "Sovekon" in the beginning of the month estimated the export in the coming season at 47.2 million tonnes, including 36.9 million tons of wheat. The Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) expects shipments of around 41 million t, including 32.5 million tonnes of wheat, when the gross grain harvest in at 112.8 million tonnes, the USDA predicts that grain exports from Russia in the season 2018/19 at the level of 42.4 million tonnes, including 34 million MT of wheat. Compared to the completed marketing year, the export of wheat will decrease by 17%, however, Russia will remain the world leader on this indicator. The Russian agriculture Ministry estimates grain exports in the new season of 40-45 million tonnes while grain yield to 100 million tons
INTERFAX - Count on the fact that the export of grain this agricultural year (July 2018-June 2019) will be supported by carryover stocks, not worth it. It is necessary to hope mainly for a new crop, the General Director of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko.
"Calculations show that, despite the enormous crop of last year (135.4 million tonnes - if), carryover stocks of grain at the beginning of the new agricultural year was less than last year," said Rylko, "Interfax".
According to him, amounted to 17.9 million tonnes against 18 million tonnes a year earlier. "So reserves to support exports at the expense of stocks, by and large, no," he said. This is due, primarily, with huge exports, according to IKAR, in the last marketing year (July 2017-June 2018) was 54.2 million tonnes, including "informal" exports to Kazakhstan.
"We see that in the stocks is a bit of barley and wheat that can still be exported, but it's not millions, but hundreds of thousands of tons, including grain, in mainland Russia, where it is difficult to get abroad", - said the head of IKAR.
According to the forecast of IKAR, the export of grain this agricultural year will be 41 million tons, including 32.5 million tons of wheat. The gross grain harvest Dmitry Rylko estimates of 112.8 million tons, including 70.8 million tons of wheat.
(Reuters) the Agency IKAR has lowered the forecast of grain harvest in Russia in 2018 to of 112.8 million tonnes with 114,7 million tons previously forecast exports in 2018/19 season has been reduced to 41.0 million tonnes to 43.2 million tonnes.
The Agency has announced that it has lowered the forecast of wheat harvest 70.8 million tonnes 71.5 million tonnes, wheat exports - up to 32.5 million tons with 33 million tons.
Forecast the corn harvest at the same time reduced to 11.8 million tonnes from 12.3 million tonnes, barley - 17.5 million tons from 17.8 million tons.
Industry experts reduce forecasts and harvest of grain exports from Russia due to the effects of adverse weather this year. The agriculture Ministry predicts a grain harvest of 100 million tons, export - 40-45 million tons.
While expanding exports, the government is mainly providing support to large companies and not small and medium business, concluded the chamber. Thus, according to the new decrees may, its share in non-oil exports should increase to 10%.
Most of the governmental measures for supporting exports in Russia is focused on large companies, but small businesses can often be unaware of them. About it RBC said the Director of Department of the accounting chamber for control over the expenditure on international relations Irina Tretyakova.
The auditors concluded that "the national system of export support, in fact, not yet created," according to the website of the accounting chamber, which assessed the Russian movement of support of foreign economic activities. Authorities have "no clear and systematic understanding of how the implemented mechanisms of support of export in the aggregate will affect the exit of Russian products to international markets", said at the Collegium of the chamber auditor Alexander Zhdankov.
Support at the international level have "mostly on large business, which takes full advantage from all the available tools — credit, insurance, subsidy costs, etc.," concluded the auditors. As explained RBC Tretyakov, in most cases the state measures affect support high-tech exports in sectors such as automotive, agricultural machinery, railway engineering and aviation.
The chamber also named major recipients of export support among large companies. "In the railway engineering is a trading house RM rail, in the automobile industry — KAMAZ, agricultural machinery — Rostselmash, in aircraft — "Sukhoi Civil aircraft", — said Tretyakov.
According to auditors, the total amount, which last year supported the Russian export centre in the four priority sectors amounted to $1.4 billion It received 45 organizations. At the same time, the bulk of exports in 2017 amounted to $357,1 billion, "surpassing the 2015 only 4%". Non-commodity non-energy exports over the two years has increased by 13.6%. But half of such supplies "there are only ten States, including a significant portion in China, Kazakhstan and Belarus", indicates the chamber.
The efforts of government agencies in support of exports are not coordinated, and some indicators for the assessment of the relevant priority project "initially underestimated, which leads to their fulfillment," said Jankov. "About the system of support for exports at the regional level not even have to talk. Separately, a trade mission in foreign countries that implement the same functions entrusted to them in different ways. All planning documents, as we have seen, in need of revision and rethinking, including on the achievement of set by the President tasks", — he stressed.
A small proportion
The share of exports, which thanks to state support is carried out by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), remains low, the report said SP. However, "in most cases, the chamber notes the facts of displacement of exporting SMEs by supporting large exporters," said Tretyakov.
"Exports of SMEs are mainly represented by agricultural products, food and light industry. Such exports though relates to non-commodity non-energy exports, but, as a rule, is not high-tech," she explained.
Settle for less
Expansion of the export of SMEs one of the tasks set in the new the may decree of President Vladimir Putin. The document envisages "the modernization of the system of support for exporters, who are the subjects of small and average business". Their share in the total volume of non-oil exports should grow at least by 10%.
Now definitive ratings of this indicator there. In General, the exporters are 6% of SMEs, said the survey "Support of Russia" for the fourth quarter of last year (.pdf). 68% do business only in their region, and another 26% of supply in other subjects. As the main reasons why companies do not export their goods and services, the respondents reported the "local business idea" (talking about her 46% of those who export).
In support of deliveries abroad there are problems with terminology, it is noted in the message SP. The concept of "non-oil export and non-oil non-energy exports," and the respective lists of goods "regulations not assigned", indicate the auditors.
Another reason for the lack of support for small businesses to export was the "lack of awareness" of small companies about existing tools, said Tretyakov. In addition, they may not have enough knowledge to export.
Export support for small companies effective in small economies, where any person "has a physical ability to reach consumers outside of their country," said the scientific Director of the Laboratory of entrepreneurship research of the Higher school of Economics (HSE) Alexander Chepurenko. "The experience of all the big countries — then Russia is no exception — shows that export support of small business, in principle, covers a very narrow target group. Because the vast majority of SMEs in Russia as a market has at best your subject and a few adjacent. In order to go on exports, they need completely different competences, they do not have", — the expert believes.
Do not need state support in export and large companies, says Chepurenko, as they have their own analytical service and can also establish branches abroad and to use the infrastructure of the Russian trade delegations. These measures could be useful to the average business, but in Russia there is, the expert adds.
Read more on RBC
June 28, 2018 for small and medium business of Saratov region held a workshop on "Effective business communication for exporters".
Educational event aimed at
- development of modern tools of business communications, allowing you to build up a dialogue with a foreign partner, given its national, religious and cultural specificities;
- mastering the technologies of business negotiations and technique of argumentation.
The seminar is held in an internal format that includes practical exercises solving real business cases. Participation is free of charge.
The event takes place in the framework of the implementation of the educational program of the Russian export centre (REC), organized by the export support Center of Saratov region and Saratov socio-economic Institute REU them. G. V. Plekhanov.
For training please complete the application form on the website www.exportedu.ru until June 25, 2018
Additional information can be received by phones: (8452) 39-04-31, 211-801 or e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Educational program the REC is a refresher course for regional representatives of small and medium businesses interested in the implementation of the export potential of their enterprises, but do not yet have the necessary competencies and skills in the organization of foreign economic activity.
The Ministry of economic development of the region
The grain fell on the background of reduction of fears for the harvest
Pessimistic predictions of low wheat harvest in Russia this year may not be justified. Started last week, cleaning of barley, which is judged by the level of wheat harvest, showed good pace. Against this background informed parastasie export prices for Russian wheat fell to $3.5 to $202,5 per ton, returning to the values of the end of may.
Last week, export prices for Russian wheat have declined from $3.5 to $202,5 per ton (FOB), reported "Sovekon". According to the General Director of "Prozerno" Vladimir Petrichenko, wheat from Russia is trading at $204-205 per ton. The General Director of Institute of a conjuncture of the agrarian markets (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko estimated average trading level of $203 per ton.
Prices for Russian wheat began to decline following the quotations at the world exchanges. According to estimates, "SovEcon", the July contract for wheat in Chicago fell by 3% to $185,2 per ton, which was at least a few weeks. On the stock exchange in Paris, the September contract is trading at $207,5 per ton, which is 1.8% less level a week ago. As a result, export prices for Russian wheat has returned to indicators of the end of may — about $203. However the starting price level for the Russian wheat before the start of the new season exceeds the indicator of June 2017 for about $25.
For operational customs data cited by Ministry of agriculture, since the beginning of the season, on 13 June, Russia exported about 50.5 million tons of grain — more than 47% compared to the same period last year. The supply of wheat grew by 49% to 39 million tonnes. "Sovekon" I do not exclude that by the end of the season total exports of grain from Russia will exceed 54 million tonnes.
The Director of "Sovekon" Andrey Sizov noted that the increase in export prices of wheat from Russia, observed from the end of may, was largely due to inflated fears of serious problems with the harvest in Russia and Ukraine. But last week, started cleaning grain, and it became clear that the most pessimistic assessment of the new crop, primarily in Russia, not confirmed, which is also reflected in the prices, he says. The new harvest of grain began with winter barley, and the degree of correlation in the yield with the yield of winter wheat high notes "Sovekon". So, on June 13, the yield of barley in the Krasnodar region ranges from 33 tons per 1 ha in the southern regions, up to 68 quintals per 1 ha in the North. Thus, writes "SovEcon", the average yield of barley at the start of the harvest reaches 57.8 per hundredweight from 1 hectare against 60.6 per hundredweight from 1 hectare a year earlier.
The first harvesting of the new grain crop may indicate a relatively good wheat crop, according to mister Petrichenko. But the harvesting of winter barley in the South began two weeks earlier than usual, and is one of the signs of the dry conditions, indicates mister Rylko. "Sovekon" estimates the grain harvest in Russia in 2018 at 119.6 million tons, including 73,1 million tons of wheat. The forecast of IKAR — 114 million tonnes 71.5 million tonnes, respectively. In 2017, according to estimates from Rosstat, Russia gathered a record 135.4 million tons of grain, including 85,8 million tons of wheat.
If further observations confirm the existing relatively good as a new grain crop in Russia, the export price of wheat in the coming weeks may be reduced to $200 per ton and below, predicts Andrei Sizov. According to Dmitry Rylko, the prospects of the wheat harvest in the Kuban region are seen very good in this region IKAR expects a yield close to the record of last year. But in General, he warns, the harvest in the South will be below last year in the Rostov, Volgograd oblasts and Stavropol Krai, the drought impact is much stronger.
As said Vladimir Petrichenko, the starting benchmark export prices for Russian wheat in the new season may be the last tender of the Egyptian state company GASC held on 12 June. Then, according to the "SovEcon", GASC bought 300 thousand tons of wheat from Russia with shipment 15-25 July at a price of $209,5–210 per tonne (FOB).
After two consecutive seasons of low prices for wheat (2015/16-2016/17) in the current agricultural year has place confident their growth.
The reason – the extremely low supply of millet. In connection with sharp reduction of areas in 2017, the gross collection was significantly below the needs of the domestic market. At the same time, increased export of this culture.
If in the first half of 2017/18/x g. shortage of millet was covered by reserves from last season, in the second half of producers of wheat began to increasingly experience a shortage of raw materials. The price of millet from September 2017 through may 2018 in the regions-producers increased in 2-2,5 times.
Accordingly, the wheat has risen. So, in the Saratov region is the largest producer of the grains – the average price tag of groats at the end of may this year amounted to 25.5 thousand rubles/ton vs 11.5 thousand rubles/ton in early September 2017.
Domestic consumption and export of millet (tons) average producer prices of millet (RUB/t with VAT)
*Domestic consumption and exports – left axis, price – right axis.
Factory stocks of sugar in Russia, according to Rosstat, from peak Dec-2017 dropped in the first four months of 2018 to 0.928 million tonnes, which is considerably more than in seasons 2010/11 – 2015/16 (0.61-0.84 million tonnes) but lower than in 2016/17 (1.133 million tons).
All season 2017/18, every month updated records of inventory for this time of year. So, factory stocks at the end of April-2018 amounted to 1.487 million tonnes compared with 1.197 million tons a year earlier.
Among the reasons for the high factory stocks in Russia:
- record production of sugar in Russia, which continued into April-2018 (50 thousand tons mainly from molasses and syrup) at the completion of processing of the beet to the beginning of April;
- significant expansion of capacities of factory storage of sugar in Russia and the decline of the practice of seasonal storage in the regions in recent years;
- slow pace of shipments of sugar from factories in February to April 2018;
high for recent years, but insufficient for balancing the domestic market, the pace of sugar exports from Russia in the current season.
Seasonal intensification of the demand in the regions and the continued export of sugar and products from it, the probable delay in the commencement of harvesting and processing beet-2018 (sowing was delayed by 1-3 weeks), can provide a normalization of the domestic stocks of sugar by the end of the 2017/18 season, In any case, before the sugar industry and government faces the challenge of comprehensive development of exports from Russia in all markets and all types of transport, especially marine!
Small enterprises in Leningrad region will receive additional support in the creation of cooperatives and the export of products.
This was in the context of the conference "Cooperation and export. Prospects, challenges, opportunities," said the Governor Alexander Drozdenko.
"The President has set the task to increase the share of small and medium business in the structure of exports to 10%. Leningrad oblast as an export-oriented region has all opportunities to exceed this figure. One of the effective ways of development of a "small" export – it is the creation of production cooperatives, which are easier to compete in the market", — said the head of the region.
He also explained that the region is working with the enterprises-exporters on the principle of "single window", supports participation in exhibitions, training of future exporters, and provides subsidies for the purchase of lease of equipment and machinery.
of the Governor and government Leningrad region
In the sphere of grain exports from Russia – a success that is rare in recent times amid the usual trouble in other areas. Planned in the current agricultural year (until July 2018) export 52 million tons of grain will be 46.5% higher than in the previous year (€35.5 million)., the Ministry of agriculture. Wheat improvement is even more significant – up to 40 million tonnes from 27.1 million tonnes, that is, by 47.6%. In this culture we are already ahead of USA that sell to export about 26 million tonnes, Although the total grain exports lag behind States with rate of about 80 million tonnes, but their exports of corn prevails. In wheat, Russia holds 22% of the world market, the EU -14%, 13%.
Success is associated with a record harvest of grain, amounting to 134,1 million tonnes by the end of 2017, and considerable reserves of approximately $ 32 million tonnes, 16% more than a year ago.
It is worth noting that this situation is combined with restrictions on harvest due to climatic conditions in the United States, Australia, and France. Therefore, a large physical volume of export from Russia is a happy combination of the rise in world wheat prices. Thus, the export price in mid-April 2018 was $ 208 dollars per ton of wheat, and by the end of April to $ 214, according to the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR). Thus, if the rough calculation take the price of 200 dollars, the revenue from wheat exports could reach 8-10 billion dollars per year. Furthermore, it should be borne in mind that the dollar / ruble exchange rate rose from 56 to 58 RUB past fall and winter to above 60 rubles in April-may 2018. This further increases the export revenue from the sale of grain.
By the end of 2018 is expected to harvest 110-115 million tons of grain, which is about 14% lower than the record 2017, Carryover stocks will probably also be less, because the current volume will go for export, which is beneficial in such a foreign environment. Therefore, the export potential of the next crop year while it is difficult to determine.
But there are certain nuances and the reality of today's grain market. The increase in exports and high export prices are creating upward pressure on the domestic procurement prices. The paradox is that at extremely high crop prices in the country are not reduced, and more increased, according to IKAR. However, to worry about the retail prices for bread is not necessary. It is socially significant products, the pricing of which is tightly controlled by antitrust and other services. Therefore, price increases above the General inflation level of 2.5-3% will not.
22 may, first Deputy Minister of agriculture of Russia Dzhambulat Hatuov held a meeting with experts of the grain market on balance sheets of grain in the regions the forecasts for the harvest and export plans for the crop year 2018/2019. Dzhambulat Hatuov was briefed experts on the situation on the grain market of the country and the volumes of carryover grain in the regions.
"The heads of regional agriculture and representatives of the business community now is the time to meet with each grain exporter, to the end of July to get the full picture for exports in the region in 2018. This will allow to plan the necessary logistics, to synchronize the actions of all market participants", - wizardinput house. The Director of the Department of economy, investments and regulation of agricultural markets Anatoly Kuchenkaiser, what is the understanding on export plans already exists in the Central Federal district and encouraged other regions to expedite the collection and analysis of necessary information.
The experts were of the opinion that you should stick to conservative forecast for the harvest in 2018, defining it at the level of 110 million tons of grain, largely due to difficult weather conditions the sowing campaign. This crop, however, will ensure that the volume of exports is only slightly below the previous calendar year. The meeting was attended by the General Director of the Institute for agricultural market studiesDmitry Rylko, Director of the external relations Department of the Russian grain Union Oleg Malofeyev, President of the National Association of exporters of agricultural productively Balan, Executive Director of the National Union of grain producers Michael Privezentsev.
PJSC "Sovcombank" and JSC "BELAZ", the world's largest manufacturer of dump trucks and other equipment for the mining industry, signed a loan agreement under which Sovcombank will open the company's revolving line of credit with a limit of 50 million euros for a period of two years.
Loan terms meet the requirements of RF Government Decree of may 24, 2017 № 620 "About the statement of rules of granting from the Federal budget subsidies, joint-stock company "the Russian export centre" for the purpose of subsidizing interest rates on export credits provided by commercial banks".
"The Bank will provide financing of the Belarusian automobile plant in order to make calculations on exports with the Russian counterparts, producing high-tech products," - said the Chairman of the Board of PJSC Sovcombank Dmitry Gusev.
Moscow. May 17. INTERFAX - Russia this year broke the record, not only in terms of wheat exports, but also by the number of countries where it was sent.
As reported "Interfax" the General Director IKAR Dmitry Rylko, buyers of Russian wheat were 87 countries. While 25 countries have updated records of purchases in Russia. This, in particular, Egypt, where since the beginning of the agricultural year (1 July 2017) raised 7.8 million tons of wheat, Turkey 4.4 million tons, Vietnam - 1.7 million tonnes, the Sudan is 1.6 million tons, Indonesia - 1.3 million tonnes, United Arab Emirates - 0.9 million tons, Mexico - 0.6 million tonnes, Oman - 0.4 million tons.
"Now on the world map is much more difficult to find a country in which Russia is not supplying wheat than the one that delivers," said Rylko.
This season for the first time in the history of modern Russia the Russian wheat purchased, Venezuela, Angola, Ireland and several other countries.
As said Dmitry Rylko, traditionally domestic wheat especially competitive along what experts call "the Russian wheat Meridian" (RPM) - "the invisible line extending from the South Russian ports in Turkey, Egypt, along the Suez canal and East Africa, including South Africa".
"In the past year in countries located along the RPM, accounted for about 63% of Russian exports, he said. In the current season in these countries shipped record amount of wheat, but their share fell to 57%. But the sharply increased supplies to Southeast Asia." This fact expert explained "part of the record of the Russian export potential, in part - a poor harvest in Australia, which has traditionally protected the country."
Citing data from the Federal customs service, Dmitry Rylko also said that this agricultural year (from July 1, 2017 to may 2018) of the Russian Federation "has taken a phenomenal record amount of wheat to 36.1 million tons." The previous record was achieved in the last marketing year and amounted to 27.4 million tons, he said.
Foreign exchange earnings from supplies exceeds $5.5 billion.
"However, even these data are incomplete, since the customs statistics record the volume exported with a time lag, - said the head of IKAR. - Besides, consider the substantial volumes of informal exports to neighboring Kazakhstan, this year they are particularly large. As a whole, by estimations IKAR, real exports at the moment is around 37.2 million tonnes."
In his opinion, the next crop year in terms of exports will be no less exciting.
The export of grain continues to move at a record pace
In the season 2018/19 Russia will retain first place among world wheat exporters, predicts the Foreign agricultural service of USDA (FAS USDA). In its first forecast for the new season, the Department estimated shipments of wheat from Russia at the level of 36.5 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes less than in the current marketing year. This volume will be the third result in the history of the country.
"Exports from Russia are expected to decrease due to the reduction of the crop. However, it will remain the world's largest exporter of wheat, given the large carry — over reserves," - noted in the review. The second place among exporters, as expected, is the European Union, which next season will increase shipments by 5 million tonnes to 29 million tonnes "Export [of the EU] fell in 2017/18 because of competition with Russia and increasing use of wheat for fodder purposes. However, the decline in the Russian harvest this year will enable the EU to regain share in the major markets of Africa and the Middle East," suggested by American analysts. USA in the season-2018/19, is expected to sell abroad 25 million tonnes of wheat, 1 million tonnes more than in the current agricultural year.
The wheat harvest in Russia in 2018, the USDA attaché forecast at 72 million tons, 13 million tons less than the record figure of 2017. "Despite a 15 percent reduction, production will be the third largest in the country's history and the expected yield of 2.77 t/ha will be the second after last year's record," says the review. In this case, where it is specified that the forecast given excluding the Crimea, where, according to Rosstat, last year was still collected 871 thousand tons of agriculture. As noted by the US Department of agriculture, weather conditions for developing winter wheat are still favorable, while dry weather reduced moisture levels in some regions of southern Russia. "The potential yield of winter wheat will largely depend on the weather in may and June," — recalled in the report.
However, Russian experts assess the U.S. Department of agriculture overly cautious. So, the current forecast of the analytical center "Sovekon" is located at 78 million tons , the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) expects wheat production in the season 2018/19 At 75-80 million tonnes, "the sowing this year has shifted, but now it is rapidly catching up with last year pace, explained, "the Agroinvestor" the head of the grain direction IKAR Oleg Sukhanov. — In addition, this year for overall good moisture, and favorable temperature regime is accelerated vegetation". Therefore, according to him, while we can expect that the harvest will be the second highest since record-85,9 million tons in 2017.
Corn and barley
Among other grain agricultures USDA FAS this year, predicts a sharp increase in the gross harvest of corn. According to analysts, it will reach 19 million tons, which is 44% or 5.8 million tons higher than a year earlier. Due to the increase in harvest will increase the volume of exports, which could increase by 56% to 7,5 million t. Such dynamics analysts attribute the anticipated steady demand from the Middle East and North Africa, and East Asia. The world's largest exporter of corn in 2018/19 will remain the US, which due to the reduction in harvest would reduce exports by 4 million t to 53 million t. Argentina and Brazil, by contrast, will increase sales by 2 million tonnes to 27 million tonnes and 31 million tonnes respectively.
Barley production, as in the case of wheat, will decline compared with last year's record. On the assessment of the FAS USDA, this year's harvest will total 18.5 million tons, which is 8% less than 2017 (excluding the Crimea, where in 2017 were collected 416 kt). Despite this, the export of agriculture in the next season will continue to grow, up 0.1 million tons to 5.5 million tons, says the American Agency. As explained in the review, this assessment was given on the basis of lower supplies from other major exporters. For example, Canada in the next marketing year will reduce the export of barley by 0.5 million tons to 1.5 million tons, and Ukraine — 0.9 million tonnes to 4 million tonnes, while the growth of exports from Australia and the European Union to 7 million tonnes.
Absolute export record
In the current season of the Russian export continues to move at a record pace. According to the analytical center "Sovekon" from July to April abroad shipped 44.2 million tons of grain, which is almost 25% higher than the total for all of last season. Including the export of wheat exceeded all previous season by 27 percent, or 7.2 million tons, barley — by 64% or 1.9 million tons, the export Volume of maize is 11% lower than the season-2016/17. According to the operative data of the Federal customs service, may 9 grain supplies exceeded 45 million tons, including more than 35 million tons of wheat, more than 5 million tonnes of barley and 4.8 million tons of corn.
In April, Russian grain exports fell by 14% to 4.3 million tonnes (March 2018 — 5 million tonnes). Most significantly, compared with March fell wheat exports by 15% to 3.3 million tonnes and Also reduced the volume of exported barley (11% to 350 thousand tons) and maize (11% to 636 thousand tons). "The main reason is the seasonal curtailing the pace of export sales as you approach the end of the agricultural year. Exporters are increasingly cautious to conclude new contracts", — says "Sovekon". So, the supply of wheat to Egypt, which is the main buyer of Russian grain, in the past month fell by 38% to 636 thousand tons, exports to Turkey by 47% to 305 thousand tons. As analysts "Sovekon" these figures are the minimum for the past five months. For this reason, the export of grain may be reduced and may. According to the forecast of the analytical center of "Rusagrotrans", the exports by the end of this month is projected at 3.6−3.7 million t However, this is 1.6 times more than in may 2017 (2.3 million tons), said to "Interfax" the head of the center Igor Pavensky. According to him, applications for grain shipment through deepwater ports already account for about 1.9 million tonnes.
With the current pace of grain exports in the season-2017/18 analytical center of "Rusagrotrans" forecast at 51.7 million tonnes, including 40.5 million tonnes of wheat, 5.3 million tonnes of barley and 5.5 million MT of corn. The latest forecast "Sovekon" — 51.9 million tons, including 39.7 million tonnes of wheat, 5.5 million tonnes of barley and 5.1 million tons of corn. FAS USDA in its may survey estimated the Russian wheat exports to reach 39.5 million tons, barley — 5.4 million tons, corn — 4.8 million tons