After two consecutive seasons of low prices for wheat (2015/16-2016/17) in the current agricultural year has place confident their growth.
The reason – the extremely low supply of millet. In connection with sharp reduction of areas in 2017, the gross collection was significantly below the needs of the domestic market. At the same time, increased export of this culture.
If in the first half of 2017/18/x g. shortage of millet was covered by reserves from last season, in the second half of producers of wheat began to increasingly experience a shortage of raw materials. The price of millet from September 2017 through may 2018 in the regions-producers increased in 2-2,5 times.
Accordingly, the wheat has risen. So, in the Saratov region is the largest producer of the grains – the average price tag of groats at the end of may this year amounted to 25.5 thousand rubles/ton vs 11.5 thousand rubles/ton in early September 2017.
Domestic consumption and export of millet (tons) average producer prices of millet (RUB/t with VAT)
*Domestic consumption and exports – left axis, price – right axis.
Factory stocks of sugar in Russia, according to Rosstat, from peak Dec-2017 dropped in the first four months of 2018 to 0.928 million tonnes, which is considerably more than in seasons 2010/11 – 2015/16 (0.61-0.84 million tonnes) but lower than in 2016/17 (1.133 million tons).
All season 2017/18, every month updated records of inventory for this time of year. So, factory stocks at the end of April-2018 amounted to 1.487 million tonnes compared with 1.197 million tons a year earlier.
Among the reasons for the high factory stocks in Russia:
- record production of sugar in Russia, which continued into April-2018 (50 thousand tons mainly from molasses and syrup) at the completion of processing of the beet to the beginning of April;
- significant expansion of capacities of factory storage of sugar in Russia and the decline of the practice of seasonal storage in the regions in recent years;
- slow pace of shipments of sugar from factories in February to April 2018;
high for recent years, but insufficient for balancing the domestic market, the pace of sugar exports from Russia in the current season.
Seasonal intensification of the demand in the regions and the continued export of sugar and products from it, the probable delay in the commencement of harvesting and processing beet-2018 (sowing was delayed by 1-3 weeks), can provide a normalization of the domestic stocks of sugar by the end of the 2017/18 season, In any case, before the sugar industry and government faces the challenge of comprehensive development of exports from Russia in all markets and all types of transport, especially marine!
Small enterprises in Leningrad region will receive additional support in the creation of cooperatives and the export of products.
This was in the context of the conference "Cooperation and export. Prospects, challenges, opportunities," said the Governor Alexander Drozdenko.
"The President has set the task to increase the share of small and medium business in the structure of exports to 10%. Leningrad oblast as an export-oriented region has all opportunities to exceed this figure. One of the effective ways of development of a "small" export – it is the creation of production cooperatives, which are easier to compete in the market", — said the head of the region.
He also explained that the region is working with the enterprises-exporters on the principle of "single window", supports participation in exhibitions, training of future exporters, and provides subsidies for the purchase of lease of equipment and machinery.
of the Governor and government Leningrad region
In the sphere of grain exports from Russia – a success that is rare in recent times amid the usual trouble in other areas. Planned in the current agricultural year (until July 2018) export 52 million tons of grain will be 46.5% higher than in the previous year (€35.5 million)., the Ministry of agriculture. Wheat improvement is even more significant – up to 40 million tonnes from 27.1 million tonnes, that is, by 47.6%. In this culture we are already ahead of USA that sell to export about 26 million tonnes, Although the total grain exports lag behind States with rate of about 80 million tonnes, but their exports of corn prevails. In wheat, Russia holds 22% of the world market, the EU -14%, 13%.
Success is associated with a record harvest of grain, amounting to 134,1 million tonnes by the end of 2017, and considerable reserves of approximately $ 32 million tonnes, 16% more than a year ago.
It is worth noting that this situation is combined with restrictions on harvest due to climatic conditions in the United States, Australia, and France. Therefore, a large physical volume of export from Russia is a happy combination of the rise in world wheat prices. Thus, the export price in mid-April 2018 was $ 208 dollars per ton of wheat, and by the end of April to $ 214, according to the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR). Thus, if the rough calculation take the price of 200 dollars, the revenue from wheat exports could reach 8-10 billion dollars per year. Furthermore, it should be borne in mind that the dollar / ruble exchange rate rose from 56 to 58 RUB past fall and winter to above 60 rubles in April-may 2018. This further increases the export revenue from the sale of grain.
By the end of 2018 is expected to harvest 110-115 million tons of grain, which is about 14% lower than the record 2017, Carryover stocks will probably also be less, because the current volume will go for export, which is beneficial in such a foreign environment. Therefore, the export potential of the next crop year while it is difficult to determine.
But there are certain nuances and the reality of today's grain market. The increase in exports and high export prices are creating upward pressure on the domestic procurement prices. The paradox is that at extremely high crop prices in the country are not reduced, and more increased, according to IKAR. However, to worry about the retail prices for bread is not necessary. It is socially significant products, the pricing of which is tightly controlled by antitrust and other services. Therefore, price increases above the General inflation level of 2.5-3% will not.
22 may, first Deputy Minister of agriculture of Russia Dzhambulat Hatuov held a meeting with experts of the grain market on balance sheets of grain in the regions the forecasts for the harvest and export plans for the crop year 2018/2019. Dzhambulat Hatuov was briefed experts on the situation on the grain market of the country and the volumes of carryover grain in the regions.
"The heads of regional agriculture and representatives of the business community now is the time to meet with each grain exporter, to the end of July to get the full picture for exports in the region in 2018. This will allow to plan the necessary logistics, to synchronize the actions of all market participants", - wizardinput house. The Director of the Department of economy, investments and regulation of agricultural markets Anatoly Kuchenkaiser, what is the understanding on export plans already exists in the Central Federal district and encouraged other regions to expedite the collection and analysis of necessary information.
The experts were of the opinion that you should stick to conservative forecast for the harvest in 2018, defining it at the level of 110 million tons of grain, largely due to difficult weather conditions the sowing campaign. This crop, however, will ensure that the volume of exports is only slightly below the previous calendar year. The meeting was attended by the General Director of the Institute for agricultural market studiesDmitry Rylko, Director of the external relations Department of the Russian grain Union Oleg Malofeyev, President of the National Association of exporters of agricultural productively Balan, Executive Director of the National Union of grain producers Michael Privezentsev.
PJSC "Sovcombank" and JSC "BELAZ", the world's largest manufacturer of dump trucks and other equipment for the mining industry, signed a loan agreement under which Sovcombank will open the company's revolving line of credit with a limit of 50 million euros for a period of two years.
Loan terms meet the requirements of RF Government Decree of may 24, 2017 № 620 "About the statement of rules of granting from the Federal budget subsidies, joint-stock company "the Russian export centre" for the purpose of subsidizing interest rates on export credits provided by commercial banks".
"The Bank will provide financing of the Belarusian automobile plant in order to make calculations on exports with the Russian counterparts, producing high-tech products," - said the Chairman of the Board of PJSC Sovcombank Dmitry Gusev.
Moscow. May 17. INTERFAX - Russia this year broke the record, not only in terms of wheat exports, but also by the number of countries where it was sent.
As reported "Interfax" the General Director IKAR Dmitry Rylko, buyers of Russian wheat were 87 countries. While 25 countries have updated records of purchases in Russia. This, in particular, Egypt, where since the beginning of the agricultural year (1 July 2017) raised 7.8 million tons of wheat, Turkey 4.4 million tons, Vietnam - 1.7 million tonnes, the Sudan is 1.6 million tons, Indonesia - 1.3 million tonnes, United Arab Emirates - 0.9 million tons, Mexico - 0.6 million tonnes, Oman - 0.4 million tons.
"Now on the world map is much more difficult to find a country in which Russia is not supplying wheat than the one that delivers," said Rylko.
This season for the first time in the history of modern Russia the Russian wheat purchased, Venezuela, Angola, Ireland and several other countries.
As said Dmitry Rylko, traditionally domestic wheat especially competitive along what experts call "the Russian wheat Meridian" (RPM) - "the invisible line extending from the South Russian ports in Turkey, Egypt, along the Suez canal and East Africa, including South Africa".
"In the past year in countries located along the RPM, accounted for about 63% of Russian exports, he said. In the current season in these countries shipped record amount of wheat, but their share fell to 57%. But the sharply increased supplies to Southeast Asia." This fact expert explained "part of the record of the Russian export potential, in part - a poor harvest in Australia, which has traditionally protected the country."
Citing data from the Federal customs service, Dmitry Rylko also said that this agricultural year (from July 1, 2017 to may 2018) of the Russian Federation "has taken a phenomenal record amount of wheat to 36.1 million tons." The previous record was achieved in the last marketing year and amounted to 27.4 million tons, he said.
Foreign exchange earnings from supplies exceeds $5.5 billion.
"However, even these data are incomplete, since the customs statistics record the volume exported with a time lag, - said the head of IKAR. - Besides, consider the substantial volumes of informal exports to neighboring Kazakhstan, this year they are particularly large. As a whole, by estimations IKAR, real exports at the moment is around 37.2 million tonnes."
In his opinion, the next crop year in terms of exports will be no less exciting.
The export of grain continues to move at a record pace
In the season 2018/19 Russia will retain first place among world wheat exporters, predicts the Foreign agricultural service of USDA (FAS USDA). In its first forecast for the new season, the Department estimated shipments of wheat from Russia at the level of 36.5 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes less than in the current marketing year. This volume will be the third result in the history of the country.
"Exports from Russia are expected to decrease due to the reduction of the crop. However, it will remain the world's largest exporter of wheat, given the large carry — over reserves," - noted in the review. The second place among exporters, as expected, is the European Union, which next season will increase shipments by 5 million tonnes to 29 million tonnes "Export [of the EU] fell in 2017/18 because of competition with Russia and increasing use of wheat for fodder purposes. However, the decline in the Russian harvest this year will enable the EU to regain share in the major markets of Africa and the Middle East," suggested by American analysts. USA in the season-2018/19, is expected to sell abroad 25 million tonnes of wheat, 1 million tonnes more than in the current agricultural year.
The wheat harvest in Russia in 2018, the USDA attaché forecast at 72 million tons, 13 million tons less than the record figure of 2017. "Despite a 15 percent reduction, production will be the third largest in the country's history and the expected yield of 2.77 t/ha will be the second after last year's record," says the review. In this case, where it is specified that the forecast given excluding the Crimea, where, according to Rosstat, last year was still collected 871 thousand tons of agriculture. As noted by the US Department of agriculture, weather conditions for developing winter wheat are still favorable, while dry weather reduced moisture levels in some regions of southern Russia. "The potential yield of winter wheat will largely depend on the weather in may and June," — recalled in the report.
However, Russian experts assess the U.S. Department of agriculture overly cautious. So, the current forecast of the analytical center "Sovekon" is located at 78 million tons , the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) expects wheat production in the season 2018/19 At 75-80 million tonnes, "the sowing this year has shifted, but now it is rapidly catching up with last year pace, explained, "the Agroinvestor" the head of the grain direction IKAR Oleg Sukhanov. — In addition, this year for overall good moisture, and favorable temperature regime is accelerated vegetation". Therefore, according to him, while we can expect that the harvest will be the second highest since record-85,9 million tons in 2017.
Corn and barley
Among other grain agricultures USDA FAS this year, predicts a sharp increase in the gross harvest of corn. According to analysts, it will reach 19 million tons, which is 44% or 5.8 million tons higher than a year earlier. Due to the increase in harvest will increase the volume of exports, which could increase by 56% to 7,5 million t. Such dynamics analysts attribute the anticipated steady demand from the Middle East and North Africa, and East Asia. The world's largest exporter of corn in 2018/19 will remain the US, which due to the reduction in harvest would reduce exports by 4 million t to 53 million t. Argentina and Brazil, by contrast, will increase sales by 2 million tonnes to 27 million tonnes and 31 million tonnes respectively.
Barley production, as in the case of wheat, will decline compared with last year's record. On the assessment of the FAS USDA, this year's harvest will total 18.5 million tons, which is 8% less than 2017 (excluding the Crimea, where in 2017 were collected 416 kt). Despite this, the export of agriculture in the next season will continue to grow, up 0.1 million tons to 5.5 million tons, says the American Agency. As explained in the review, this assessment was given on the basis of lower supplies from other major exporters. For example, Canada in the next marketing year will reduce the export of barley by 0.5 million tons to 1.5 million tons, and Ukraine — 0.9 million tonnes to 4 million tonnes, while the growth of exports from Australia and the European Union to 7 million tonnes.
Absolute export record
In the current season of the Russian export continues to move at a record pace. According to the analytical center "Sovekon" from July to April abroad shipped 44.2 million tons of grain, which is almost 25% higher than the total for all of last season. Including the export of wheat exceeded all previous season by 27 percent, or 7.2 million tons, barley — by 64% or 1.9 million tons, the export Volume of maize is 11% lower than the season-2016/17. According to the operative data of the Federal customs service, may 9 grain supplies exceeded 45 million tons, including more than 35 million tons of wheat, more than 5 million tonnes of barley and 4.8 million tons of corn.
In April, Russian grain exports fell by 14% to 4.3 million tonnes (March 2018 — 5 million tonnes). Most significantly, compared with March fell wheat exports by 15% to 3.3 million tonnes and Also reduced the volume of exported barley (11% to 350 thousand tons) and maize (11% to 636 thousand tons). "The main reason is the seasonal curtailing the pace of export sales as you approach the end of the agricultural year. Exporters are increasingly cautious to conclude new contracts", — says "Sovekon". So, the supply of wheat to Egypt, which is the main buyer of Russian grain, in the past month fell by 38% to 636 thousand tons, exports to Turkey by 47% to 305 thousand tons. As analysts "Sovekon" these figures are the minimum for the past five months. For this reason, the export of grain may be reduced and may. According to the forecast of the analytical center of "Rusagrotrans", the exports by the end of this month is projected at 3.6−3.7 million t However, this is 1.6 times more than in may 2017 (2.3 million tons), said to "Interfax" the head of the center Igor Pavensky. According to him, applications for grain shipment through deepwater ports already account for about 1.9 million tonnes.
With the current pace of grain exports in the season-2017/18 analytical center of "Rusagrotrans" forecast at 51.7 million tonnes, including 40.5 million tonnes of wheat, 5.3 million tonnes of barley and 5.5 million MT of corn. The latest forecast "Sovekon" — 51.9 million tons, including 39.7 million tonnes of wheat, 5.5 million tonnes of barley and 5.1 million tons of corn. FAS USDA in its may survey estimated the Russian wheat exports to reach 39.5 million tons, barley — 5.4 million tons, corn — 4.8 million tons
Union the "Kaliningrad chamber of Commerce" invites you to take part in the seminar "Financing of export projects", which will be held on may 30, 2018.
The moderator and Rapporteur of the seminar will be Andrei Zaitsev, Director for regional business development of JSC "Russian export center", Moscow.
In the event You will learn about the features of export financing and the program of preferential financing. You will also have the opportunity to ask questions concerning the export of products and available support measures. The event program is attached.
Participation is FREE!
Registration is required, applications will be accepted until may 28, 2018.
The number of places is limited.
Date and venue: 30 may 2018, conference hall of the Kaliningrad TPP ( Moscow, Vatutina str., 20A).
Time: 9:30 to 13:00.
Contact person in the Kaliningrad TPP: Gordievich Valeriya Valerievna, email@example.com: +7 (4012) 590-650
Registration for the event: http://kaliningrad.tpprf.ru/ru/announcements/249678/
DocumentsThe project programmatic 0904208.docx
There is a General consensus that of all agrotourism Russia sells on the world markets only wheat, fish and sunflower oil. This is not true: our country long ago, exports of by-products (bran, oilcakes, meals, sugar beet pulp), and in recent years actively developing food exports — meat, sugar and fresh vegetables
According to the Federal customs service of Russia (FCS), in 2017 the export of food products and agricultural raw materials in value terms rose by nearly 22% and reached a record value of $20.7 billion In real terms the supplies increased by more than 20% to 65 million tons last year, the Russian food supplied in 159 countries.
Grain and oil
Despite the gradual expansion of assortment of delivered abroad food processing, the grain industry remains the largest share of the total value of exports. So, just for wheat, corn and barley in 2017 accounted for about 36% of the volume of export in monetary terms. In the top 31 products, deliveries abroad exceeded last year by $100 million, in addition to these positions, also includes rice, chickpeas, wheat products and flour.
Of 27.5% (or $5.7 billion) of the $20.7 billion in total share of wheat. And it is the most exported goods, which are exported to more than 130 countries. However, external sales positions can not be called the most profitable for exporters. The profitability of grain exports decreased this season. "The export of grain is really not always advantageous for those involved — confirms the head of the grain direction of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Oleg Sukhanov. — In this market there are many difficulties and risks remain urgent problems with logistics and infrastructure, often do not add optimism and does not facilitate the life of public policy". According to experts, the average profitability of export transactions does not exceed 1.5−2% of the FOB price per ton. In the "good scenario" — $3-4/t "Exporters not exactly rowing money with a shovel, otherwise we would not close the export offices, he adds. — But without the export of grain, we just can't, so there is no question it is beneficial or not, the export of us! Consumption is a maximum of 80-85 million tonnes, produced last year, 135 million tons of what to do with the rest? Need or two times less to produce, or to export than we successfully also are engaged".
But the product is more highly processed products — flour — exported abroad is not active. Last year it exported about 218 thousand tons, Almost half of the volume (46,4%) was shipped to China. As for the development of exports of flour from the state has ambitious plans: by 2024, the Ministry of agriculture intends to increase shipments to 1 million tonnes, According to Sukhanov, the point of view of production and export potential of such growth is very real. But in fact is a big and long work. On foreign markets has long been firmly a Turkish and Kazakh companies. "I don't think we so fast they oust — questioned the expert. — To increase exports to plus or minus 0.5 million tons — Yes, I think we can, but 1 million tons will be able to take out soon".
Foreign consumers are willing to buy Russian wheat waste (bran). In 2017 their removal, according to the FCS, exceeded 840 thousand tons in the amount of $104 million And 93% of this volume in terms of value went to Turkey. The waste of grain production not only of wheat but also corn and other agricultural crops in the world in demand, says Sukhanov. "This is a huge market, for example, in America corn stillage traded millions of tons," — he knows. All waste go into the food, as well as the production of meat, livestock is increasing and will increase, all of these positions will also have a good demand, as well as all kinds of meal, oil-cake, sugar beet pulp. Oil and fat industry can also be called one of the leaders of Russian export of: 11 items out of 31 In the ranking of the most exported products by value produced in this sector. Sunflower oil occupies third position in terms of money ($1.75 billion) and one-fifth by weight of 2.27 million tonnes, which is about half of the domestically produced volume. In five years Russia has increased the supply of this kind of oil in physical terms by almost 1.7 times.
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The export support center of the Omsk region, acting on the basis of the regional development Agency and investment, from 7 to 10 June 2018 Omsk invites companies to take part in the business mission to Mongolia (Ulan Bator) on preferential terms.
"The participating companies will be represented at the exhibition with a collective stand. Regional Center of support of export will incur the cost of paying the exhibition space and the necessary equipment, ensure the search and selection of potential business partners, business negotiations, representatives of Omsk and Mongolian companies, the development and translation into a foreign language presentation materials for participants of the business mission. The company-participant should pay the costs associated with the trip of its representative," - noted in the Center of support of export of the Omsk region.
As noted in the Agency of development and investments of the Omsk region, the regional centre of export support counting on the active participation in the mission in Mongolia small and medium-sized businesses from various industries.
"Participation in the business mission will enable the businessmen of small and average business of Omsk and Omsk region to study the target market of Mongolia, to conduct negotiations with potential partners and conclude export contracts", - said the Deputy head of the export support Center of the Omsk region Anna Kolokolova.
The programme of the visit: participation in the international exhibition "Russian-Mongolian initiative 2018", business meeting with Mongolian enterprises. The hawks will have the opportunity to visit the exhibition-presentation of innovative companies and regions of Russia, and also representatives of small and medium business.Participation is open to interested businessmen. Applications will be accepted until 18 may 2018. Detailed information on participation in the business mission may be obtained by phone: +7(3812)40-88-77.
"We are likely to minimize off-loading (fuel) for the domestic market and at most exported. Do not be surprised if there is a shortage (fuel in the Russian Federation)," said one of the independent Russian processors.
Union the "Kaliningrad TPP" at the request of the Embassy of Lithuanian Republic in the Russian Federation informs that the nonprofit organization of the Ministry of economy of Lithuania, "Enterprise Lithuania" began to administer a database of exporters of Lithuania.
This online tool (https://edb.verslilietuva.lt/) , is designed for foreign companies looking for a reliable partner in Lithuania, and also allows you to post commercial offers.
The companies included in the database of exporters, are Lithuanian producers and service providers from various business sectors, excluding re-exporters, retailers and wholesalers. Company profiles are checked by consultants of the "Enterprise Lithuania", the quality of the information guaranteed.
Detailed information can be obtained from: Remigijus, Abacus, Attache of Commerce, the Embassy of Lithuania in Russia, tel.: +7 495 697 6546, mob. +7 906 051 6811 E-mail: Remigijus.Kabecius@urm.lt
Contact person in the Kaliningrad TPP: Valeria Valeryevna Gordievich, e-mail:firstname.lastname@example.org tel 590-650.
School of export of the Russian export centre has released a training manual on business communication in export activities.
The Handbook "Business communication in export activities" was the second in a series of training materials developed by experts and authors of the educational program of the School of Russian exports export centre (REC).
The main purpose of benefits – to help small and medium-sized enterprises to master the tools of effective business communication that will allow you to work successfully throughout the life cycle of an export project.
"Releasing the first textbook for beginning exporters we never imagined there would be such interest from representatives of small and medium business and students. Since the publication of the Handbook on the educational portal of School of export, it was downloaded more than 11,000 times, - says General Director of the School of export Alisa Nikitina. – We very much hope that our new guide will get a lesser response from the audience and will be a great help for exporters in building communications with business partners".
Content of the manual follows the sequence and logic of the negotiations in the implementation of export project: start of negotiations (introduction first sentence); the main stage of the negotiation (debate, presentation, objections); the final stage (the specific proposal, decision-making and the conclusion of negotiations). Also read will get a lot of useful information about participation in exhibition and trade events, negotiate on Skype, the techniques of reasoning and methods of protection against manipulation, as well as about the peculiarities of mentality of representatives of different countries.
The textbook "Business communication in export activities" is available for viewing to all interested in the section "Library" the educational portal of School of export.
Reference: Education program School of export (www.exportedu.ru) is a refresher course for regional representatives of small and medium businesses interested in developing export capacity of their enterprises, but do not yet have the necessary competencies and skills in the organization of foreign economic activity.
Moscow. April 3. INTERFAX - podsosnogo Export of oil from Russia in the next two to three years will reach 50% of its production, predicts the General Director of IKAR Dmitry Rylko.
"After two or three years, depending on the yield of sunflower, sunflower oil exports may reach 50% of its production," said Dmitry Rylko reporters on the sidelines of the oil conference on Tuesday in Moscow.
Currently, the share is 47%. In the last marketing year (for sunflower oil in September-August) Russia exported 2.15 million tons of sunflower oil. "This is a record figure", - he said.
Speaking at the conference, the head of IKAR , said that the consumption of sunflower oil in Russia is stagnating. "This year we expect consumption to decrease slightly. The season when the export share will reach 50%, and in the future we will be more oil to export, you can consume inside the country," he said.
According to him, "there is hope for the countries of South-East Asia, but there are other very important markets." First of all, we are talking about the Middle East and Africa. "You need to seriously think about where our profits," he added.
Rylko also said that at present export of vegetable, including sunflower oil from Russia, "is in the shadow of neighbor Ukraine, which exports much more". "But while our markets are not very strong overlap. The intersection is 20-25%. Ukraine focused on EU market, for obvious reasons. Ukraine knocked us out, he said. - Our core competencies are associated with Egypt, Turkey and countries in the Middle East."
As stated by the head of IKAR, the export is also "sharpened" and the production of rapeseed oil. This year, the share of exports in production was 77%. The export of this oil is including in the EU. Great prospects in this trade he ties with China, so the interest in canola production "will grow rapidly", especially in the regions of Western Siberia.
According to Rosstat, Russia in 2017 gathered 11 million tons of sunflower against 9.6 million tons a year earlier, and 3.6 million tons of soybeans, compared with 3.1 million tons, rapeseed - 1.5 million tons versus 999 thousand tons, respectively.